Few could have foreseen Michigan struggling with Purdue. I was beyond confident in the Wolverines’ (7-2, 5-1 Big Ten) abilities to steamroll the Boilermakers (2-7, 0-6). While a win is still a win, the 21-16 final tally was closer than anticipated. On top of all that, Justice Haynes is getting surgery and the pass game does not look refined enough to beat top competition.
ESPN’s FPI rankings appropriately dropped Michigan four spots to No. 19 in the country after that uninspiring outing against the Boilermakers.
The Wolverines’ 3.3 projected regular season losses heavily suggest the model likes the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes to win The Game this season.
Additionally, the Wolverines have just a 7.3 percent chance of running the table, which includes a Wrigley Field date with Northwestern in a couple weeks and a road trip to Maryland after that, along with that finale in Ann Arbor against the Buckeyes. However, Michigan does have a 13.2 percent chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. For all of the concerns about this team, that number far from eliminates it from playoff contention.
The Wolverines’ odds of winning or even reaching the National Championship Game remain slim — less than 1 percent — and that feels like a pipe dream. This campaign is about getting to the playoffs before forecasting a Cinderella run. Michigan has quietly set itself up for a strong close to these last three games, and its bubble status could rise shortly.
