Although it ultimately came down to a two-horse race, the National League West fielded four teams in 2025 that showed flashes throughout the year. Those four squads started hot and held a winning record as July kicked off. While the Los Angeles Dodgers would ultimately hold serve throughout September, the San Diego Padres were within just a couple games of first down the stretch in a race that was closer than many expected.
The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks were in the mix for a good
portion of the year, but would fall out of the race for first and into a battle with each other for third by August. Neither was a Wild Card threat. Even still, both had their moments.
Hey, even the Colorado Rockies found success, in that they avoided posting the worst record of all time. (It’s the little things.)
Heading into 2026, pitching looks to be a common thread that will define the division. Teams around the West focused their offseason on acquiring pitching talent, for a variety of reasons.
- The Padres looked to replace departing aces, the Dodgers bolstered an already strong squad.
- The Diamondbacks sought relief for a struggling unit across a number of stats.
- The Giants held steady and will generally rely on the pieces they had.
- The Rockies tinkered with the philosophy behind their staff.
In a tough division with little margin for error, each team’s adjustments could result in big changes for how the standings shake out.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2025 Record: 80-82 | PECOTA 2026 Projection: 78.4 wins
Key Additions: 3B Nolan Arenado, SP Merrill Kelly, SP Michael Soroka, 1B Carlos Santana
Key Departures: OF Jake McCarthy, SS Blaze Alexander, RP Jalen Beeks
The D-Backs aimed to shore up a pitching staff that was bottom-10 in both ERA and hits allowed, re-signing Zac Gallen to anchor their starting rotation and bringing in Kelly and Soroka to slot in. Kelly will start the season on the IL after an injury in early March, but will look to make his 2026 debut soon enough.
Much of the Serpientes’ success came on the offensive side. Their bottom-10 pitching was countered by an offense that was top-10 in just about every batting category. They got on base, scored a lot of runs, drew a lot of walks, and hit a lot of homers. Things were clicking.
They acquired two new starters in Arenado and Santana, both of whom are coming off of down years at the plate relative to their usual production. Arenado slashed .237/.289/.377, each the lowest in his career. Santana posted .219/.308/.325 across two teams, and while those weren’t career lows, they were big dips from recent years. Both hope to rebound, but bring uncertainty to their new team. Keeping this steady are a core of solid hitters in Geraldo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll, and Ketel Marte.
The D-Backs still have some question marks and might not emerge as one of MLB’s top teams, but they certainly are positioned to push for the playoffs if they see a return to form for Gallen and some improvements to their pitching numbers overall.
However, an uptick in pitching could unfortunately pair with a regression in batting, threatening those chances.
Colorado Rockies
2025 Record: 43-119 | PECOTA 2026 Projection: 61.0 wins
Key Additions: UTIL Willi Castro, SP Michael Lorenzen, SP Tomoyuki Sugano, SP José Quintana, 2B Edouard Julien
Key Departures: SP Germán Márquez, 1B Michael Toglia, INF Kyle Farmer
After you’ve flirted with the likes of the 2024 White Sox and the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, any improvement feels welcome.
The 2026 Rockies won’t yet be looking for their first winning season in eight years. They probably aren’t even looking at their first sub-100 loss season. But bringing the losses down from 119 to 101, as PECOTA suggests, would feel like a massive win. Again, the bar is low.
Following 103-, 101-, and 119-loss seasons, the biggest improvements the club made in the offseason might be those in the front office. The team is young in positions and approaches related to club management, baseball operations, analytics (FINALLY!), and scouting. Obviously, time will tell how the new philosophies take shape, but for the time being it feels like the Rockies are actually headed in any direction.
The year ahead will be one of evaluation and development, understanding what the Rox have in the pipeline across the roster (see our 2026 State of the Position series for a look at each position in more detail!) and tinkering with organizational philosophies. That is evidenced by the number of one-year deals the Rockies have taken on as they try to avoid being tied down by any more big contracts or players who aren’t a long-term fit.
Obviously, as the Rockies try to shore up talent and work through the growing pains of young players playing who may or may not be around in a couple years, their outlook to compete in the division is very rough. What they can’t bring in wins, they hope to bring in exciting prospects and fun. The Rockies have not been a fun team to watch in a while, but several young cornerstone pieces and bright spots in camp could change that. A double-digit improvement in wins would be a very nice cherry on top.
Los Angeles Dodgers
2025 Record: 93-69 | PECOTA 2026 Projection: 103.9 wins
Key Additions: OF Kyle Tucker, RP Edwin Díaz, UTIL Kiké Hernández
Key Departures: SP Clayton Kershaw, OF Michael Conforto, RP Kirby Yates
I think the Dodgers may have broken the PECOTA Standings…
They come into the year with the highest win projection in all of MLB and the best percentage chance to win their division (98.7%) of any projected division winner. On top of that, PECOTA gives them a 100% chance to make the playoffs and a 21.6% chance to win the World Series. So, yeah, I guess the back-to-back champs are in okay shape.
They came into 2025 with similarly high expectations and while they fell behind the Philadelphia Phillies and the Milwaukee Brewers for a postseason bye, that was a lost battle on their way to winning the World Series war.
Any concerns about Los Angeles’ outlook can be deferred until a later date. Having Shohei Ohtani and adding some of the year’s top free agents will squash any worries. The 2026 Dodgers had a rich-get-richer offseason, and the defending champs look even stronger with the addition of Tucker and Díaz. On paper, it’s a roster with very few holes. As heavy favorites, the Dodgers will look to put a little more distance between themselves and the Padres in locking up the division and securing the 1-seed on the way to another NL Pennant.
Ultimately, last year’s season is a recipe that should comfort LA. While they didn’t hit the stellar projections many thought they would, they weathered injuries and made it to the dance, where they could unleash a loaded rotation of Cy Young-caliber stars and flash depth in the field that helped them withstand a very good Toronto Blue Jays team that outplayed them for much of a series. In short, all of their talent gives them enough wiggle room to the point that the regular season finish won’t make or break their disgustingly high floor.
San Diego Padres
2025 Record: 90-72 | PECOTA 2026 Projection: 80.8 wins
Key Additions: SP Michael King, 3B/OF Miguel Andujar, INF Sung-Mun Song, RP Ty Adcock
Key Departures: SP Dylan Cease, 1B/2B Luis Arráez, 1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn, RP Robert Suárez
The Friars came surprisingly and agonizingly close to their first division title since 2006. In a West that was thought to belong to the Dodgers, the Padres were just three games out when all was said and done, even coming a game and a half within the lead in the final week of the season. It was a year of “so close, yet so far”, as they would end up falling to the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card Round.
San Diego rode the wave of a top-notch pitching staff in 2025, finishing first in the league in hits allowed and saves, and third in ERA. They’ll look to plug some holes to hit those marks again after losing their top starting pitcher and relief pitcher in the offseason. Cease headed north of the border to join the AL Champs in Toronto, after giving San Diego 32 starts (8-12, 4.55 ERA) last year. Suárez may be even harder to replace, joining the Atlanta Braves after 56 games finished (40 saves, 2.97 ERA) for the Padres.
That’s a lot of games, and San Diego will face an uphill battle in filling them. Yu Darvish is out for the full season following elbow surgery, so the team will have more spots to fill. Germán Márquez looks to be a new addition to their projected starting rotation, as is Randy Vásquez (acquired from the New York Yankees in the Juan Soto trade) after a strong spring. They may look to hop in the trade market to acquire another starter, with rumors that they could be in on Kodai Senga if he’s moved. Mason Miller, the closer acquired at the 2025 trade deadline, will look to take Suárez’s role.
On the other side of things, the Padres bring back a top-heavy lineup led by Fernando Tatís Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackson Merrill. They’re likely to miss Luis Arráez, who pitched in a team-high 181 hits on .292/.327/.392 batting. Gavin Sheets and newcomer Miguel Andujar will look to contribute, but the team’s fate will rely on how those core guys look this year.
Big change at key positions and the wear-and-tear of the NL West gauntlet will test San Diego’s playoff hopes. PECOTA has them as the biggest fallers in the division, but they’ll look to keep their window of contention forced open in spite of the turnover.
San Francisco Giants
2025 Record: 81-81 | PECOTA 2026 Projection: 81.9 wins
Key Additions: OF Harrison Bader, 1B/2B Luis Arráez, SP Adrian Houser
Key Departures: SP Justin Verlander, C Andrew Knizner
The 2025 Giants were the third horse in the divisional race for a big stretch of the season until things went downhill after the All Star break. Evidently, the club’s brass liked what they saw, adding just a few key pieces to the club that went .500 last year. They laid the groundwork in past seasons with the acquisition of Rafael Devers and Willy Adames, so the quiet path forward looks to build on that.
The Giants will welcome the production that the Padres are losing in Luis Arráez. A three-time batting champion, his on-base percentage and batting average have been very consistent and very reliable throughout his career, to say the least. San Francisco will add that production right into their starting lineup with Arráez projected to bat leadoff, along with some improved outfield defense via Harrison Bader. Bader also brings a wealth of postseason experience, and his bat wasn’t too shabby last year either, as he posted career highs in batting average, hits, and homers.
Beyond those acquisitions and new starting pitcher Adrian Houser, the Gigantes kept things fairly steady and will work with what they’ve got, hoping a few splashes will go a long way. With a rotation of Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Landen Roupp, Houser, and free agent acquisition Tyler Mahle, they’ll look to rely more heavily on more innings from their starters to preserve their bullpen, contrasting with the “opener” approach they’ve used in the past.
While the last four seasons haven’t necessarily marked steady improvement for San Francisco (at least in terms of their record), they also haven’t sounded any alarm bells. They’ve finished at or just under .500 in each of those years. If they can finally move further north of that mark, they’ll show that the path they’ve taken is the right one.
Will the Dodgers win their 13th NL West title in the last 14 years? Will the Giants or the D-Backs leapfrog the Padres in the race? How much will the Rockies improve? Let us know how you think the West will be won!
Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!
