With the notable exception of the Dodgers, this has been the October of small market teams so far. Of the four teams remaining, three of them rank in the bottom half in terms of payroll. Remarkably, the two cheapest teams in the American League will battle it out for a spot in the World Series.
While Nats fans
have complained a lot about the lack of spending, and rightfully so in my opinion, there are ways to win without spending much money. Paul Toboni should be studying how teams like the Rays, Brewers and Guardians operate. Ideally, the Nats can become another version of that with a bit more spending power.
With how he is operating, I have no doubt that Toboni has learned a lot from the three small market teams that are still alive. There are unique things that each team does well, but there are also aspects of the game that tie all of them together.
These teams have shown the value of pitching. All four teams that are still alive have elite pitching staffs. The Nats are not there yet, but with all the trades he has made, Toboni clearly understands the importance of building a deep and nasty pitching staff.
There is actually a fun video I watched which argued that the Nats are taking a lot of things from the Brewers. From how they develop players to how they build the roster, there are things that the two clubs share. It took the Brewers a little while to become the well oiled machine they are today. Hopefully the Nats can get to that level as an organization.
Despite the fact smaller market teams are thriving, that is not an excuse to not use the free agent market. It should not be how you build the team, but free agency is a great way to augment the roster. In the last great era of Nats baseball, we saw that on full display. Jayson Werth, Max Scherzer, Daniel Murphy, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez were among the free agents who played big roles in making the team special in the 2010’s.
There should be money to spend this offseason. If that money is spent wisely, this team could take the next step quickly. When I look at some of these offenses in October, I am confident that the Nats are better than many of them. The numbers and the eye test show that. However, the pitching still needs to catch up.
When you watch a team like the Guardians, you can really see the value of an elite bullpen. Cade Smith just locks games down in the 8th and 9th innings. The Nats will either have to develop or acquire a true alpha in the back end.
Each of the teams still in the hunt have elite bullpen arms, but the way they were acquired differs. The Dodgers spent a lot of money to acquire the likes of Tanner Scott and Edwin Diaz. However, they also developed Edgardo Henriquez and picked up Alex Vesia in a minor move. The Rays got Bryan Baker in a medium sized trade and made an already good reliever elite.
There are a lot of ways to build bullpens, but the Nats need to have a good one to reach their potential. In October, you need a lot of solid arms. The teams that can develop the most arms are the ones that tend to have success. This postseason has shown us that you do not have to break the bank to have success. However, you need good pitching and it might take a big move or two for the Nats to have the necessary firepower to compete.
