The back seven was always going to be much tougher than the first five for the Michigan Wolverines, but even after knocking off a ranked (at the time) Oklahoma, the pre-bye stretch still yielded two losses. As a result, thoughts of making the College Football Playoff are all but dead, and somehow fears of missing a bowl are not unfounded.
Very similar vibes exist around the Penn State Nittany Lions, whose projected win total is slightly higher than the Wolverines’, but CFP odds are equally minimal.
Unlike Michigan, the schedule set up quite nicely for an outside playoff run, which possibly makes the current mood even worse in Unhappy Valley. Add in the decision to move on from James Franklin, and suddenly there are some real existential questions within the fanbase.
Regardless, neither Kyle Whittingham nor Matt Campbell are off to the start they expected at their new homes, and there is a lot of work needed over the back half of the season in order to settle down the pitchforks. That makes Saturday’s contest a massive tipping point for these two programs — whoever loses is going to see their panic levels shoot even higher.
Penn State (3-3, 0-3) at Michigan (3-2, 0-2)
Date & Time: Saturday, Oct. 17, 3:30pm ET
Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: CBS
Of all the realignment changes, perhaps the biggest shock was the three-year gap it caused with Penn State. These two programs have not always played each other, but had numerous contentious battles as they fought within the Big Ten East. The last three were especially memorable, including gritty victories in 2021 and 2023 at Beaver Stadium. 2022 was the most recent showdown at the Big House, with the No. 5 Wolverines scoring 25 unanswered in a 41-17 win over the 10th-ranked Nittany Lions.
Offense: Now or never
That demolition in 2022 featured 418 total rushing yards by the home team, with both Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards racking up over 160 yards apiece. Each had a breakaway touchdown over 60 yards as well, and the Penn State defense had no answers on the ground, ceding 7.6 YPC. The next year was more of the same, with Michigan content to run 32 straight times.
All of this feels like a very distant memory right now. The Wolverines are 98th nationally in rushing yards per game, 106th in YPC, and have literally one rush over 20 yards, tied for DEAD LAST in the country. If there ever was a game to get things on track it would be this one, as the Nittany Lions are 105th, 113th, and 112th, respectively, in these statistical categories, showing very little resistance against rushing attacks.
We can only hope that the coaching staff used the bye week to evaluate what is going wrong and how to fix it. To me, it feels like all of this motion and all of this rhino action are more harmful than good, allowing defenses to play extremely aggressively against the Michigan running backs. Given how bad Penn State has been in this department, it should not take anything fancy to win on the ground, but Michigan cannot let its own biggest enemy continue to be itself.
Of course, the run game has not been helped by the inconsistent passing game, and improvement will be expected from Bryce Underwood coming out of the bye week as well. I still maintain that much more blame falls on Jason Beck than the sophomore quarterback, but I understand why patience is wearing thin. The Nittany Lions have been above average against Power Four passing attacks this season and will be more than happy to force Underwood into some mistakes. Thinking back to the 2023 game, use the aerial threat to keep the defense honest, but now is the time to get back to the foundation of this offense.
Defense: Analytically there
Rocco Becht came over with Campbell from Iowa State, and has seen most of his numbers go up this season. However, the past three games – all against Big Ten foes – have been a lot tougher, though he did throw for 289 yards against USC last weekend. Still, he has more picks than touchdowns in conference play and actually has a lower passer rating in these contests than Underwood has over his past two. Hmmmmm.
SP+ has the Michigan email up to 7th, while the Penn State offense is just 45th. Like the Wolverines, the Nittany Lions have struggled to get it going on the ground, ranking 90th in yards per game and 92nd in YPC. None of the backs have been high volume, nor high efficiency, and the scales should be heavily titled towards the home team on this side of the ball. Top receiver Koby Howard also remains out, leaving few threats to worry about.
The issue is that the Michigan defense has been excellent for the vast majority of the year, but keeps coming up just short over the course of 90 minutes. Those never-ending drives by Western and Minnesota and the miraculous effort in the final two minutes by Iowa are hard to hold against a unit that has been very good outside of those moments, but the problem is the ineptitude on offense requires the bar to be so high.
Complementary football is not the reality in Ann Arbor. No, the defense must lead the way and recognize it will suffer from tough starting field positions and imbalanced time of possession. The one place it could improve upon is takeaways, though Penn State has been pretty good at protecting the ball. I would expect good overall numbers once again from the defense, but it will all come down to how many one-off breakdowns occur.
Desperation Day
Who needs the win more? Strong arguments exist on both sides. Michigan’s schedule is deathly going forward, but this season was always unlikely to mean much. The opposite can be said for Penn State, who seemingly had every chance to make some waves, but is now in just as much freefall as anyone. One win does not save either program, but another loss will feel severe.
Knowing who is more desperate is unlikely to translate into who actually wins. On paper, the Wolverines should feel good about their odds in this game, having the best of the four individual units and having substantial room for improvement on offense (that really does not seem too complicated to fix to this untrained eye!). Vegas seems to agree and gives the edge to the maize and blue.
With all of that being said, though I do think that while Campbell will feel the bigger fallout from this loss, Michigan is the one who should want this game more. Winning in a way that shows even modest improvement on offense could change the tenor for the tough stretch coming up and potentially give Underwood and Beck a little breathing room. Nothing will be solved in one game, but the changes (or lack thereof) during this bye week will say a ton about the rest of the season.
