If Payton Tolle came out of obscurity to help the 2025 Red Sox down the stretch, Connelly Early came from another planet. I’m pretty tapped into the farm system. I spend way too much time on Twitter, with an algorithm full of Red Sox content. I knew Tolle; I actually wrote about him well before he was called up, but Alex Speier published a piece about him on the same day I had one planned, so I saved it for closer to his debut. Unlike Tolle, I didn’t know who Early was until shortly before his call-up,
and certainly didn’t have expectations for him when he debuted.
He was dominant in his four regular-season starts and pitched well but was let down by his defense in his one postseason start. Through nine starts in 2026, Early has been solid, but not as dominant as he was in late 2025. His ERA is up from 2.33 to 3.21, while his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is up from 0.91 to 4.56. FIP is often cited in determining if a pitcher has been lucky or not because it has some predictive value, but if you allow me to be pretentious for a minute, that’s typically from people who are either uninformed or just lazy. The stat takes balls in play out of the equation and focuses on home runs, strikeouts, and walks. So far this season, his strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and he’s allowed seven home runs after allowing zero in his debut season.
Continuing to be pretentious, I am not uninformed or lazy, so I want to know why those stats have trended in that direction. I started with the home runs. He didn’t give up any in 2025, and has already given up seven this season. Here are the locations of those pitches.
Six of the seven have come on belt-high pitches. Other than that, there’s no real trend. It’s not as if they each came when he fell behind in the count, or if there’s one pitch in particular that has been punished. The location, however, is the most important thing. They’re all in the zone, and while Early’s pitches aren’t lollipops, they also aren’t entirely overpowering. His fastball averages 93 mph, and his slider is hard at 87 mph, but they’re both hittable in the wrong locations. There are very few pitchers who can get away with their mistakes over the plate frequently, and Early is no exception.
I did mention that he allowed no home runs last season, though. Part of that is likely because he only threw 19 innings. While he’s still facing many hitters for the first time, he was a relative unknown when he arrived last season, too. The stuff was more or less the same, and there were still some mistakes; they just didn’t go for home runs. That’s baseball, and statistics or something. We move on.
What are we moving on to, you might ask? The strikeouts and walks, of course. Early walked just four of 79 (5.1%) batters faced. This season, he’s walked 18 of 199 (9%). I mentioned this offseason that his 2025 minor league walk rate was close to 10%, so I’m not surprised to see more walks. I am, however, surprised to see the dip in strikeouts.
For starters, there was some statistical regression bound to happen. Early got to two-strike counts against 61% of the hitters he faced last season and turned 60% of those at-bats into strikeouts. The league average for converting two-strike counts into strikeouts is typically about 40%, and while striking out hitters is a skill that some are better at than others, a 60% strikeout conversion rate* is unlikely to be repeated year after year. This season, Early’s rate is, believe it or not, 41%.
*I made the name of this statistic up. It sounds pretty good though, right?
The other area where Early made slight changes was his two-strike pitch selection. I’ll focus on right-handed hitters, because that’s the area where he’s seen the most regression; his strikeout rate fell from 28.1% to 21.8% against righties.
This season, he’s leaned on his four-seam fastball more, while cutting the use of his curveball dramatically. Last season, his curveball was a great weapon for him, registering a 26% putaway rate. This year, that number is down to 13%, and Early has cut the usage as a result. If we look at the heatmaps, it’s pretty easy to see why that happened.
In his short debut season, his curveballs mostly landed below the plate, often in the dirt. This year, they’re in the zone more often, and hitters haven’t bitten. When they do swing, they aren’t missing as often, frequently fouling balls off to stay alive. His four-seam execution also hasn’t been as sharp.
The pitches here are still largely up and away, where they should play well, but there are more inside and over the plate. He’s using it more as well, and as I mentioned, it isn’t such an outlier where he can afford to miss over the plate, especially in two-strike counts. Here’s an example of where that pitch selection and location came back to bite him.
Brice Matthews is up with two runners on base. He swings through a first-pitch changeup, an indicator that he, like many hitters when they come up with a runner on third and less than two outs, is looking for a fastball. Early has the breaking stuff to use for chases, but elects to give him the four-seam fastball. It’s down in the zone where it’s hittable, and Matthews puts in the seats.
He hasn’t taken a step back everywhere, though. His changeup, which evaluators tabbed as his best pitch entering 2025, has improved. It comes in about nine miles per hour below his fastball and shows tremendous depth. Last year, it averaged -3.2” of vertical movement; this year, it’s dropping an additional inch and a half on average. It’s lost a little bit of horizontal, and he hasn’t spotted it on the arm side as frequently against righties, but it might just be a matter of finding a feel for the new shape. Even without pristine locations, the chase rate is way up, and he’s earned more whiffs as well. Here’s a look at one of his best this season.
Expecting Early to repeat his 2025 performance is probably wishful thinking. He made four starts, and his command was close to perfect over his 19 innings. While the bar is high, it’s also a good example of who Early can be. When his fastball is up, his curveball is down, and his changeup is arm-side, he’s going to punch hitters out. Remember, he’s only 24 years old and has plenty of time to grow, as well. He’s consistently put the Red Sox in the position to win games without his best command. As he matures and finds the feel for his pitches, he’ll only get better.
