For the last… well I can’t really remember how long it’s been now actually, I’ve been examining the Buffalo Bills takeaways and giveaways for quite some time. I think it’s time to look back at the Sean McDermott in totality, and try to make some guesses for the 2026 season; the dawn of the Joe Brady era…
McDermott era giveaways
We all know the narrative around Josh Allen. He’s turnover prone. That’s not precisely wrong. It’s also not precisely right. Let’s look at a chart.
I’m sorry to say it, but it’s a valid statement to say that
in general, quarterbacks are a primary culprit of a team’s giveaways. That said, when it comes to Allen the phrase “your mileage may vary” is an apt one. His first year was frankly, abysmal. Then he improved drastically, with the team hovering around average from 2019 – 2021.
Then we got a couple years of spikes in 2022 and 2023. Since this is a predictive feature ultimately, I should point current head coach, Joe Brady was the quarterbacks coach and interim offensive coordinator for those two seasons. In 2024 and 2025 Brady was the offensive coordinator and we had an elite year with barely any giveaways, and then a pretty average year.
The team’s identity shifted toward the run under Brady’s OC tenure, but it should be noted that the 2024 season with the scant turnovers featured a balanced offense where passing attempts did edge out rushing ones. Of course we also have no idea if this was Brady’s plan or McDermott’s plan, but we’ve gotta make some kind of prediction for the season so my take is…
The seasons with Brady seeing a heavier influence were both good ones. Allen and company have the potential for a disastrous season (2023 data), but those do appear to be the outliers with recent upturns coming under the Ken Dorsey era of offensive coordination. Are you curious about the splits in the 2023 season where Dorsey was ousted and Brady became the interim? Of course you do.
Under Dorsey, the Bills had 18 turnovers. With Brady at the helm as OC, it went down to 10. That’s not quite the full story though as Dorsey had 10 games that season with Brady only coordinating seven. That equates to 1.8 turnovers per game vs. 1.4 turnovers per game. Brady still has the advantage, but not quite as drastic. I’ll hold off on a numeric predictor for right now.
McDermott era takeaways
If there was one side of the ledger that constantly had me looking foolish, it was the takeaway side. Like before, let’s consult the chart.
The term “regression to the mean” is pretty much built for turnovers, where it’s tough to stay on top consistently. I predicted regression to the mean plenty of times for the Buffalo Bills and as you can see, aside from the 2025 season and the 2019 one it simply just wasn’t happening under Sean McDermott.
I should also note for full disclosure that last season I penned several articles where the main premise was that the Bills’ defensive roster was less talented than many of McDermott’s squads. I mention that because I don’t think the coach is out there looking for a pick-six personally, so talent matters.
This side of the ball is a bigger question mark with McDermott gone and the defensive scheme likely shifting, if not outright changing under Jim Leonhard. It’s unlikely Joe Brady will look to be a dominant influence on the defense either, with his history strongly on the offensive side of things.
Like above, let’s hold off on predictions for a moment.
Turnover differential
As is tradition, a chart.
Anything on the positive side of the ledger is a good thing, as turnover differential is strongly correlated with success. The 2024 season is preposterous so we should 100% dismiss it as an outlier. That aside, the Bills only had a negative differential one time, Josh Allen’s rookie season which was the most catastrophic one on the board for giveaways.
That leads me to predictions, which of course I’ll start with last year’s. I predicted 28 takeaways as I finally learned to bet on McDermott. Just in time for an average season. Whoops. I was off by eight. For giveaways, I predicted regression to the mean with 16 turnovers on the wrong side of the ledger. That was only three off, so not too terrible.
For this season, I like the Joe Brady influence to be a stabilizing one and I think the Josh Allen narrative is overblown. I’m going to predict 18 giveaways as the team emphasizes risk mitigation and careful football to support a defense going through growing pains.
On the giveaways, I just don’t have much faith in the team immediately gelling. I hate to say it, as I know feelings on the man are mixed, but Sean McDermott was a masterful conductor, orchestrating ways to take the ball away. The data supports this knack and Jim Leonhard will need to prove himself to earn that rep. Until then, I have to assume he’s part of the pack.
I also don’t want to assume Leonhard will be terrible at prepping the team, and there are many McDermott era starters who will still carry on what they learned. I like the Bills to still be on the positive side of the differential, but barely. I’m predicting 19 takeaways as the Bills remain at the mean.
