My grandfather had a favorite saying: “Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.” That was the second thing to cross my mind when UNC announced Mike Malone as its new men’s basketball head coach. Malone’s a unique answer to a complicated problem for UNC, which reached outside “the family” for a head coach for the first time in more than six decades.
How did UNC end up with Coach Malone? Let’s review some knowns.
“We know we’ve got the most highly sought after job in the country. I mean, the history,
the tradition, and the success of this program is second-to-none. We will be inundated with requests for consideration.” Bubba Cunningham, after the formal dismissal of Hubert Davis
UNC fans consider the job the best in the country. Considering the brand’s history and still-considerable inertia, the perspective has a lot of merit. On the other hand, people outside the UNC orbit don’t necessarily see UNC the same way. Some of those people are college coaches and agents.
An elite college coach sees the history and probably covets it. Here’s what a coaching candidate also sees at this particular point in time:
A deeply divided booster community. December’s botched arena roll-out created instantaneous friction and a PR civil war, with Roy Williams and basketball alumni openly questioning the motives and transparency of the Chancellor and Athletic Director. UNC quickly declared the arena plans on hold, likely due, at least in part, to concerns encountered in conversations with prospective coaches and their agents.
A football program exiting a season of turmoil and deep embarrassment. When a coach with the resume of Bill Belichick, decked out in Carolina gear, becomes a national punch line, that takes a toll. It calls into question the judgment of the people running the show behind the scenes. It also calls into question what UNC does if Belichick suffers another 4-8 season. Parting ways with Belichick at the conclusion of next season would be extremely expensive. Funds spent on cleaning house in football can’t be spent on basketball.
A family divided. UNC fans have been deeply divided over Davis from the start. Those divisions deepened with each successive peak and valley. By the end, the basketball case for Davis’ dismissal had become clear. The toxic mockery directed Davis’ way, even after he was fired, seems less rooted in empirical evidence. Anyone with their finger to that pulse has to ask themselves this question: if some UNC fans could turn this viciously on one of their own, how might they turn on someone outside the family?
Put those things together, and the job suddenly seems less attractive?
Let’s list the candidates that we know UNC targeted and withdrew from consideration either quickly or without significant communication: Brad Stevens, TJ Otzelberger, Dusty May, Billy Donovan, and Ben McCollum. That’s five of the eight original names UNC sources cited as the wish list. Candidates Grant McCasland and Mark Byington had buy-outs reportedly north of $10 million. That’s a lot of dead ends for a job opening expected to have candidates lining up out the door.
Tommy Lloyd may be UNC’s coach today if Arizona doesn’t remove Lloyd’s program from the authority of their athletic director, an unprecedented move to retain a coach. However, the one candidate who did get serious traction was seemingly motivated by a desire to leave an AD as much as to come to UNC. From that perspective, UNC’s original wish list had a very low hit rate. The job, it seems, was not as coveted as UNC hoped going into it.
Late in the process, after May informed Michigan he wasn’t pursuing other jobs, a new name entered the mix: Scott Drew. For perspective, Davis’ eighth seed Tar Heels beat Drew’s one seed Baylor head to head in 2022. This season, UNC and Baylor played two common opponents, Kansas and Louisville. UNC and Davis beat both. Baylor and Drew lost to both.
Baylor missed the NCAA tournament this season. Drew has that title run in 2021, but he’s also exited in the second round five times in his last six NCAA appearances. Baylor basketball’s slide coincides with the advent of NIL, which dovetails with rampant suspicions in the B12 world that Drew may have been bending some rules to land elite talents. Purely as a basketball matter, it’s difficult to argue Drew’s a clear upgrade over Davis. Add the suspicions about his ethics.
Ask yourself where UNC fans would be right now if we’d fired Hubert Davis to land Scott Drew.
That’s where things stood when UNC announced Mike Malone as the new head coach. A search that started with the self-assured conviction that UNC would be able to pick an elite coach from a pool of qualified candidates by the morning of April 6 was down to debating Scott Drew, Mike Malone, or waiting another week to see if Billy Donovan might be available.
Let’s be clear: none of this means Malone can’t be a smashing success at UNC. The UNC NBA alumni community has rallied around him. Roy and Michael Jordan reportedly approve of him in this role. Boosters seem excited. Malone possesses a sterling reputation as a basketball tactician and has coached Hall of Fame players. Job one for the candidate is to rally the UNC community. Job 2 is to hit the ground running with positive press, and while a few columnists have taken shots, the glowing video clips inundating social media have been everywhere. The introduction after the initial shock has been all anyone could hope for.
The familiarity Malone developed with UNC over the past year looms large as well. He knows what he’s walking into, both the job and the personalities. His staff construction blends UNC family that Malone observed and trusts with some compelling outside perspective. Contrast that with Belichick’s “fire everyone, wipe the board clean” approach that so hampered Belichick’s initial months. Malone’s not walking into the job with the dismissive arrogance we saw from Belichick and Lombardi. This could work. The ceiling might be the roof.
All’s well that end’s well, and while the success of this hire won’t be truly known for awhile, Malone seems off to a very good start. Still, ask yourself this question:
If Bridget Malone had chosen a different university to attend, is Mike Malone the UNC coach today? Or are we raging over Scott Drew? Or watching a portal season unfold while Donovan decides his next steps in Chicago?
Sometimes, it’s better to be lucky than good.
