For the most part, the Phillies bullpen has been a strength so far this season. There’s been some bad luck involved, but overall, the unit looks strong. One major exception however is José Alvarado.
Following Sunday’s ineffective performance, Alvarado has now allowed 8 runs, 7 earned, in 5 innings pitched on 9 hits with 7 strikeouts to 3 walks. He too has run into some bad luck, as he’s sporting a whopping .563 BABIP, an impressive level of early batted ball misfortune. But, that doesn’t entirely
erase the fact that Alvarado just hasn’t looked good so far.
Alvarado’s velocity has been good, clocking in right around his career average at an average of 98 MPH. But he’s struggled to throw strikes, as only 40% of his pitches have been inside the zone. That is a far drop off from his abbreviated 2025 (50.3%) or even his 2024 (47.6%). In fact, that 40% zone rate is well below Alvarado’s already low 47.5% rate for his career. Of course, he’s only made eight appearances on the young 2026 season, but it is something to monitor.
Curiously, despite the lack of pitches in the zone, Alvarado is actually getting a healthy dose of swings and misses. His 30.2% whiff rate is in line with his career average of 31.3% and is way up from 2025 where his swing and miss rate was a career low 24.3%.
It is only eight appliances, so the book is far from written on Alvarado’s 2026, but the poor performance is a trend that dates back to his return from suspension last season. In 16 total appearances since being reinstated on August 19th, Alvarado has a 9.82 ERA in 11 innings pitched with 14 strikeouts to 6 walks. Opponents are hitting .340 with a .968 OPS against him over that span. The numbers are even worse in the eight appearances after Alvarado returned from the injured list on September 29th, with a 12.60 ERA and an opposing hitters batting line of .391/.481/.391
It’s still early in 2026, so there’s plenty of time for Alvarado to turn it around. But this is a trend of subpar performance that dates back to last season. The Phillies have two other effective lefties in the bullpen with Tanner Banks and the surprising Tim Mayza, but neither of them posses the raw stuff and strikeout ability that Alvarado has. The team needs him to be able to be an effective setup man and to be the top lefty reliever behind righties Jhoan Duran and Brad Keller. So, do the Phillies have a José Alvarado problem?
