Week 1 is here. Our Broncos are going to be rocking the all-white uniforms in Kansas City to kick off the first week of their season.
I haven’t been this excited for the first game of a season since 2013, when the Denver Broncos got the revenge matchup against the Baltimore Ravens and completely embarrassed them on the national stage.
What this game means to the Chiefs
Last season was an embarrassment for the Kansas City Chiefs and their fans, and they are ready to wash the taste of it from their mouths. Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn
ACL and LCL in his left knee last December against the Chargers, and their hopes rest on Mahomes returning to MVP status this season.
This game isn’t anything close to integral for their season. The Chiefs have 3 winnable games in their first 4 starts (Broncos, Colts, at Dolphins, and at Raiders), with this game being their most dangerous. More than anything, they are more interested in giving the Broncos a deficit that would hopefully shake the Broncos’ resolve.
What this game means to the Broncos
The Broncos under Sean Payton have had a rough start to each of their past 3 seasons. They have a very tough schedule through the first 6 weeks of the season (at Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, at 49ers, at Chargers, Seahawks).
The Broncos need a fast start if they want to keep working off the momentum they built last season. Going into Arrowhead and stunning the Chiefs would set them up with great morale heading into the rest of the gauntlet of a schedule they have.
Losing at Arrowhead wouldn’t be great for them, but let’s be real: it would be somewhat expected with Andy Reid having months to scheme and game plan for this matchup, along with the home-field advantage.
When the Broncos are defending
Passing
It is honestly nigh impossible to know exactly how to call this. Patrick Mahomes and how well he is able to move has a high impact on how well their offense is going to execute. Until he has more than a one-season hiccup in his play, you have to respect him as one of the top 3 quarterbacks in the NFL.
As far as receiving options go, the Chiefs have Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Tyquan Thornton. Kenneth Walker III is also very effective at catching passes out of the backfield.
The Broncos have the NFL’s best corner in Patrick Surtain and arguably the NFL’s most talented playmaking slot corner in Ja’Quan McMillian. Riley Moss is an excellent corner when he isn’t drawing pass interference calls. I also love how our safeties play and are able to impact the passing game. Having both a healthy Brandon Jones and Talanoa Hufanga is a huge help against an offense as potent as Reid’s Chiefs.
The biggest impact to this matchup is going to be in the trenches. You already know the Broncos bring the heat with All-Pros Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen. The bigger problem for the Chiefs is the defense called by Vance Joseph, who brings heat from any angle, any player, at any time. He’s one of the NFL’s best defensive coordinators and has his team absolutely dialed in on making it almost impossible to know where his blitzes are coming from at times.
The Chiefs are down starting Left Tackle Josh Simmons and have a dinged-up Trey Smith at Guard. They also have yet to figure out the key to slowing down Joseph’s defense. The Broncos poured on pressure last season, to the tune of 4 sacks and 18 pressures in the past two games.
Advantage: Broncos
Rushing
The biggest impact of rushing for the Chiefs is going to be Super Bowl winning runningback Kenneth Walker III. If they can block up holes for him, he’s capable of making huge plays to turn the game at any point. He’s every bit as capable of keeping them ahead of schedule as a back who averaged 4.6 ypc last season.
The Broncos do bring a front that is excellent against the run overall. They only gave up a 100-yard rusher twice last season (Colts and Bills). The Broncos also gave up only 3.9 ypc last season, which ranked them 3rd best in the NFL.
The big unknown here is how well the Chiefs’ run blocking does to open things up for Walker. Last season, they weren’t spectacular by any stretch of the imagination. This begs the question of whether that was due to a lack of running back talent or ability on the line. This game is going to show us which, as Walker brings a ton of talent to bear.
Advantage: Chiefs
When the Broncos are on offense
Passing
Bo Nix is no Patrick Mahomes, but damn if he isn’t on his ass, especially when you look at how he matured and played last season. We’ve seen this preseason and training camp enough to know that Nix is on point and his ankle is well healed.
The story of the offseason for the Broncos is the addition of Jaylen Waddle to the wide receiver room. To my eyes, that changes everything for this offense. Watching the team muddle about with an inconsistent Troy Franklin, an undersized Marvin Mims, and slower Pat Bryant at the #2 position has been rough. I think everything in this offense gets better just by Waddle being on the field. He’s arguably a #1 WR talent, has phenomenal speed, superb hands, and changes speed at an elite level. In short, Jaylen Waddle is a PROBLEM.
The Chiefs then have to pick their poison when Waddle is on the field at the same time as #1 WR Courtland Sutton and the rest of the receivers (who I think are very capable as #3 or #4 options).
The area of weakness in the receiving game is the tight end room for the Broncos. One of Nix’s shortcomings is that he doesn’t lean enough on throws to tight ends over the middle of the field. Evan Engram and Adam Trautman are good tight ends, but neither has been noteworthy in the receiving game.
The other big story in the passing game for the Broncos is the Chiefs losing both starting cornerbacks this past offseason, with Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson going to the Rams. To help bolster their defensive backfield, they brought back aging L’Jarius Sneed, 1st-round pick Mansoor Delane, and 4th-round pick Jadon Canady. Having a rebuilt cornerback room is likely to lead to some choppy waters for the Chiefs if their pass rush is unable to get home (which they won’t…the Broncos’ line is one of the best in the NFL at pass blocking).
Advantage: Broncos
Rushing
The Broncos’ line on paper has looked like a good running line for a couple of years now. The problem has been that it hasn’t been a stable factor through a whole season. They tend to start slow and have been hampered by a lack of running back talent in recent years.
This offseason, the Broncos re-signed JK Dobbins and drafted Jonah Coleman as a fix for the running back room. For me, the jury is out on Dobbins until he proves he can stay healthy through the season. I do love the signing of Coleman, though. He was a very productive back in every facet of the game in Washington and is one of the most ready prospects that were available in the draft this year to hit the ground running.
The Chiefs have been capable of stopping the run under Steve Spagnola, giving up an average of 4 ypc, which puts them in the top-10 of the NFL as a run defense goes.
The Broncos are healthy up front, and last season with this line and Dobbins, they were tearing it up offensively.
Advantage: Broncos
Broncos keys to the game
- Score early, score often
The Broncos need to get on the board early and quiet the crowd at Arrowhead. Sure, they can win without this, but getting up by multiple scores is the easiest way for them to ensure a win. - Contain the run
Kenneth Walker is likely going to be productive. The big thing for the Broncos defense is that they need to keep him hemmed in and not let him make explosives in the run game. - Create turnovers
The Chiefs have a huge advantage at Arrowhead. The Broncos can nullify this by creating turnovers and short fields. As Sean Payton pointed out this week, the advantages of winning the turnover battle go up significantly in prime time games.
Chiefs keys to the game
- Bring back that Mahomes magic
Patrick Mahomes needs to be amazing. The Broncos’ defense is way too good otherwise. They were built to beat the Chiefs and stop the Andy Reid passing game. If Mahomes isn’t mobile, can’t get the ball out fast enough, or shows a lack of accuracy like he did last season, the Chiefs are cooked. - Run Walker all game long
The Chiefs’ run game working consistently would cause too many problems for the Broncos’ defense. The Broncos’ inside linebackers are a liability against the Chiefs and have been for years. If they can keep on schedule with runs, they will be able to convert easier quick passes to sustain drives. - Abuse mismatches with Travis Kelce
Kelce may be aging and may have lost half a step. He’s still absolutely amazing at knowing where to go against any coverage on his side of the field in order to get open. If they scheme Kelce against Singleton or get him matched up on a lighter defensive back, it could spell trouble for the Broncos
Final Thoughts
I’m hopefully optimistic about the Broncos’ chances in Week 1. On paper, they have a lot of advantages over the Chiefs. But this is the NFL. Anything can happen, and the Chiefs are far from a pushover. They have been well coached for years and are going to be ready for this challenge.
Hit me up in the comments and let me know what your keys to the game are. What mismatches do you see for or against the Broncos on Monday night?
