It wasn’t pretty.
The Patriots game told us what’s broken. Monday night at SoFi Stadium tells us whether Buffalo can fix (or at least mask) it in a week. The Rams are 2.5- to 3-point favorites, and they’re bringing the one thing the Bills’ secondary has struggled most to stop: receivers who win on the outside.
I’m not here to relitigate the 29-26 loss. I’m here to use it. Every Hero and Head Scratcher below is judged by what he showed against New England and what he has to do against Matthew Stafford,
Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams.
Here’s the big picture. Buffalo’s offense leads the league in scoring (127 points through four games) and converts 53.3% of its third downs. The Rams’ defense allows just 145.5 passing yards per game and a 75.4 passer rating. On the other side, Buffalo allows 20.5 passing points per game, the second-most in the league, and a 6.8% touchdown rate (29th), per Sharp Football. A lot of players are banged up. Who needs to step up on the big stage to help the Bills move to 4-1?
Heroes
DE Greg Rousseau: the answer to Stafford’s pocket problem
I’ve tried to avoid repeating names on this list, but it’s impossible at some point. Greg Rousseau has played lights out, week in and week out.
Rousseau has six sacks, the most in the NFL. Against New England, his streak of two sacks per game ended, but he still had eight pressures and at least four hits on Drake Maye, while he defended the run as he usually does, very well. He also had a strip-sack called back after review, in a play where he was an inch away from making it count.
Here’s why Groot matters on Monday. Stafford has the NFL’s third-worst passer rating under pressure (29.1) and the sixth-lowest completion rate when pressured (37.0%). His accuracy is 34 percentage points worse under pressure than in a clean pocket, the largest gap among qualifying quarterbacks. He has already thrown six interceptions in four games (eight all of last year), and he went 32-of-52 for 317 yards, no touchdowns and two picks at Philadelphia. Not exactly MVP numbers.
So the Bills’ best coverage call is to put the heat on Stafford. The catch is real: 4for4 ranks the Rams’ offensive line first in the league, with a 29.5% pressure rate allowed (sixth) and the best interior group at preventing pressure. Rousseau on the edge is Buffalo’s cleanest path to that pocket. With the Bills’ secondary struggling, the pass rush is the plan to save the day.
WR Keon Coleman: Can he be the guy if DJ Moore sits?
DJ Moore left in the second quarter after re-injuring his shoulder and did not practice Thursday. Buffalo has its bye in Week 7, so resting him is a real possibility. Coleman is who stepped up against New England: six catches on seven targets for 116 yards and a touchdown, six of those targets after Moore went out, and the team’s best PFF grade (79.2). In the fourth quarter, he caught a third-and-6 throw for 22, then caught a 24-yarder and a 34-yard touchdown on a deep post to put Buffalo up 26-21. He is 14-for-16 for 217 yards on the season, and with Moore off the field, he has run 3.33 yards per route, per Sharp Football.
Skeptics will say New England was missing its top corner. Fair. The Rams are a different test. Trent McDuffie has allowed only 5 completions on 18 targets (27.8%), and Coleman plays 75% of his snaps outside, though Jaylen Watson is expected to miss the game, which leaves Josh Wallace opposite McDuffie. Los Angeles has allowed just five pass plays of 20-plus yards, tied for the fewest in the league. Buffalo has 17, tied for second most on offense. That’s the matchup: Coleman’s targets against the best secondary in football so far. With Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir also in the fold, Coleman might be able to keep up the good production.
Head Scratchers
CB Maxwell Hairston: from an asset to a liability, to…
Uno was no bueno.
Two touchdowns. Romeo Doubs finished with six catches on nine targets for 58 yards and two scores, both on Hairston, who was the most-targeted defender by New England. On the opening drive, he got lost in zone on a fourth-and-3 conversion, and Doubs beat him on the next play for 14 yards and a touchdown. In the second half, a holding flag wiped out a third-down sack, and two plays later Doubs made a one-handed grab on a 2-yard fade. He also played inexcusably far off the line on a red-zone fourth down. PFF graded him a 32.0, the lowest of any Bill in the game.
This was a regression, not a verdict. Before Sunday, PFF had him at 56.7 on the season, and Next Gen Stats had him allowing a 36.4% completion rate (minimum 10 targets). He’s now at a 114.4 passer rating allowed when targeted, per Sharp Football. Draft status is not a guarantee of professional success, though, and Monday’s receivers don’t care where he was picked.
Adams plays 88% of his snaps outside, and Buffalo allows 9.0 catches per game (26th) and a 9.3% touchdown rate (29th) to outside receivers. His target share has dipped with Nacua back (23.5% of routes and 1.54 yards per route with Nacua on the field, versus 33.5% and 3.23 without), and he saw just four catches for 32 yards in Philadelphia. But he is still touchdown-dependent in this offense, and touchdowns are where Hairston got hurt. Nacua returned from a two-game absence with 9 catches on 12 targets for 125 yards, running a route on 90.7% of dropbacks.
Christian Benford, who missed Week 4 with a toe injury, was back at practice Thursday. But he is not an automatic fix: PFF had him at 40.6 entering Week 4 (97th of 99 corners), and he has allowed a 124.4 passer rating when targeted. Whoever draws Adams and Nacua, the Bills can’t afford a repeat of the fourth-and-short conversions that kept New England’s drives alive.
QB Josh Allen: the last throw can’t be the first problem Monday
I’ll say it plainly: that last throw was a head scratcher. Allen was 23-of-33 for 253 yards, a touchdown and an interception, plus a 2-yard sneak for a score. But down three with the clock on his side, he forced a throw that Craig Woodson picked off to end the game. An inexcusable decision, even if he had his WR open before he had to spin to avoid a sack. It’s a game of inches, and the second he spent to evade the free rusher changed the picture entirely. A 10-year vet, the best QB in the league, can’t do that, period.
He also ran five times for four yards, avoiding contact and looking nothing like himself, mobility-wise. On Thursday, Alen quickly dismissed the possibility of playing injured, but honestly, it’s hard to believe his words with the way he moved last game. Josh has played through some meaningful injuries for a couple of seasons now, and I don’t believe he’s 100% healthy at the moment, as he suggests.
Buffalo has seven giveaways in two games, five against the Chargers and two against New England. The Rams matter here for a specific reason. Their defense is stingy: second in completion rate allowed (53.5%) and first in yards per attempt allowed (4.8). But it isn’t a takeaway machine, and Myles Garrett is on injured reserve, so the pass rush runs through Byron Young (20.1% pressure rate). Allen’s 39.4% play-action rate is second in the NFL, while Stafford’s 22.5% ranks 31st, so Buffalo will lean on the tool this Rams defense has to respect. Establishing the run with James Cook will be important again, and if Buffalo loses Monday, it’s more likely to be because the Bills couldn’t run the ball and gave it away than because the Rams took it.
Honorable Mentions
Trending Up:
- RB James Cook: 6.4, 6.4, and 6.3 yards per carry over his last three games, and the league’s best rate of 10-plus-yard runs (21.4%). Yet he got just 12 carries on 35 snaps (59%) against New England. The Rams allow 3.8 yards per carry to backs (12th) and a 4.7% rate of 10-plus-yard runs (4th), so he needs volume.
- DT Greg Gaines: He recovered Maye’s fumble and posted PFF’s third-best grade on the team (73.8). With Ed Oliver sitting out Thursday’s practice with a knee issue, he matters against the NFL’s best interior line at preventing pressure.
- LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr: Led the defense at 75.9 PFF grade in just 16 snaps (21%). Showed he can add the physicality Terrel Bernard lacks, but also cover, something Dorian Williams has struggled with. Giving him an increase in snaps should help the defense overall.
Trending Down:
- OT Dion Dawkins: He was responsible for a sack, beaten on a play that could have been a safety, and flagged twice. Byron Young (20.1% pressure rate) is the Rams’ top pass rusher with Garrett on IR.
- TE Dalton Kincaid: 5-130 and 7-95-1 in Weeks 1 and 2, then 2-38 and 1-7. PFF graded him a 40.2 against New England, with a route rate of 54.3%. He still leads TEs at 3.07 yards per route, but the Rams allow a league-low 2.9 yards per target to tight ends.
- WR Joshua Palmer: One catch for 3 yards on four targets, a 43.7 PFF grade, and a dropped deep shot. The Rams have allowed only five pass plays of 20-plus yards (tied for fewest), so those downfield chances won’t come often.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Buffalo’s secondary is not going to win this game by itself. It also can’t be the reason Buffalo loses it. If the pass rush gets home on Stafford, if Coleman or Moore is the guy on the outside against McDuffie, and if the Bills stop giving the ball away, the Rams have no good answer for this offense.
I know there are a lot of “ifs”, and the one that bothers me the most wasn’t even mentioned: what if Josh really isn’t healthy? I want his words to be true, and another stellar performance at the SoFi would help a lot with it. Give a healthy Josh Allen a clean pocket and take away the self-inflicted wounds, and I’ll take Buffalo’s best player over anyone else in that building.
Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of Leading the Charge!
