The Phillies are both mediocre and the National League’s biggest threat to upset the Los Angeles Dodgers in this year’s playoffs.
How can both be true?
The 2026 Phillies enter Tuesday night’s game in St. Louis at 64-56, a .533 winning percentage, 7.5 games behind the Braves in the NL East and tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the 2nd wild card, both of whom are just one game up on the San Diego Padres for the NL’s final playoff spot.
Since the Phillies reached their high-water mark of 11 games
over .500 on July 1 (49-38), they have gone 15-18 in their last 33 games. Over that stretch they are 15th in runs scored, 18th in OPS, 19th in batting average, and 22nd in home runs. Their 4.45 staff ERA is 22nd and their tied for 20th in walk rate, 22nd in home runs per nine innings, and 16th in batting average allowed. The rotation’s numbers are better than the bullpen’s, whose 5.46 ERA is 2nd-worst in baseball, and the defense’s -35 Defensive Runs Saved is also last.
That’s mediocre.
And yet, as The Athletic’s Jayson Stark wrote, there are those inside baseball who believe the Phillies remain the greatest threat to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ quest for a three-peat this October.
Should they get there.
So the team that got the most mentions as the Dodgers’ biggest threat was a surprise to me: the same Phillies team that just made a trade (for Arraez) that was so unorthodox they had to shake up half their defensive lineup just to fit him onto the field.
“I still think it comes back to the team, in the playoffs, with the best 1-2-3 starters,” said the former exec. “And that’s the Phillies.”
On the latest edition of WHYY’s Hittin’ Season, we discussed the seeming contradiction.
It is true the Phillies are both mediocre, and the National League team best positioned to knock the Dodgers off in a short postseason series.
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KLUGH: “Yes, having three awesome starting pitchers in playoff series is going to get you the advantage almost every time. But we’ve also seen how having three big horses like that in your rotation doesn’t get you all the way there all the time. I have my doubts that the Phillies are the best team to challenge the Dodgers when the Brewers have been playing so well and are cited for doing the things well the Phillies don’t do, which is the little things.”
Jesus Luzardo is in the midst of a hot streak reminiscent of what we saw earlier in the season from Cristopher Sanchez. And with Zack Wheeler continuing to roll right along, there is perhaps no team in baseball that can feature three pitchers this dominant in a playoff series.
Of course, there are teams who can counter with a pretty comparable 1-2 punch. The key is the Game 3 starter the Phillies can run out there in a playoff series. It’s a difference maker.
And while the Phils have a major issue with their bullpen right now, the Dodgers had a similarly leaky group of relievers heading into last year’s playoffs. They solved it by using their starters out of the ‘pen to secure key outs late in games. The Phillies won’t have quite that kind of ability, although Andrew Painter’s improvements over his last three starts makes him an intriguing bullpen add.
Still, unless some relief pitchers emerge over the final 40 games of the regular season, the Phils may not even make it to October, let along go on a run to the Fall Classic.
And in the postseason, the offense must come to play and perform under pressure in a way they haven’t since Game 2 of the 2023 NLCS.
There are other more well-rounded teams in the NL that could perhaps be a bigger threat. Milwaukee is once again playing at an elite level, with an ace pitcher that is just about as unbeatable as a person can be right now. The Chicago Cubs acquired pitching at the trade deadline that could make them very dangerous, and don’t count out the Atlanta Braves, who have been up-and-down.
Are the Phillies playing mediocre baseball right now? Yes. You know what other team played mediocre baseball late in the season?
The 2022 Phils, who went 11-14 in September and just barely squeaked into the postseason as the third wild card. Last year’s Phillies went 18-11 in August and 17-8 in September and went into the playoffs on an absolute roll.
So yes, it’s fair to say the Phillies are, right now, mediocre. And yes, it’s also fair to say they are the team with the biggest threat to the Dodgers in the playoffs.
