I guess I’m turning this into an annual tradition.
Bill C. used to do a ‘Count the Ifs’ post before each football season, and once Nate came on board he took it over and has kept the tradition going with aplomb.
Last year, I wanted to try the same for basketball. Missouri was coming off an ugly 0-18 season in the SEC, but there was a lot of reason for optimism within the program. Every season starts with some iota of hope at least, some seasons contain more, some less. If you’re a Houston or Duke or Purdue
fan, maybe you’ve got more hope than you’ve ever had. If you’re a Mississippi Valley State fan, well you’re probably just hopeful things won’t be the worst.
This season, Missouri fans feel hopeful. Maybe the level of expectation is higher in some corners of the fandom, but I like to think we’re all on the same page in that we want to see progress built off of last season’s upturn.
A year ago Missouri had their highest finish in KenPom (19) since the 2012 season (7). The finish to the season left a bit of a sour aftertaste as the Tigers lost 5 of their last 6 games, including dropping their NCAA opening round game against a Drake team they were favorites over. Progress for the program might look different to a lot of people.
So what’s the baseline for this team?
Make the NCAA Tournament
Last year was a disappointment not necessarily because of the end result, but because for about 6-8 weeks Mizzou was playing like one of the five best teams in the country. When you have that peak, losing in the first round of the tournament feels like a let down.
If Mizzou is merely okay this season, they still have enough depth and talent to make the tournament. KenPom projects the Tigers 28th in the country, that’s safely in. With the 17th best offense, and the 54th best defense. That projection gets them to around 9-9 in the league, and with the quality of the SEC that will probably be enough for a 7-9 seed, with seeding just depending on quality of wins.
But what IF the defense is better?
Dennis Gates hasn’t yet fielded a top 50 defense, but last year’s unit jumped from 136th to 68th in the country. How they did that was by turning people over. They were 2nd in the SEC and 41st overall in defensive turnover rate. Rebounding wasn’t as egregiously bad as years before, but it wasn’t great with a defensive rebound rate 301st in the country, and 11th in the SEC. There are two ways to succeed on defense, collecting a defensive rebound or creating a turnover. Forcing tough shots is helpful, but not unless you can’t get the board. Mizzou was really good at one, and not great (but not awful!) at the other.
So either the turnover generation needs to improve or the defensive rebounding needs to improve.
The Tigers have one of the biggest teams in the country, and with increased size and length, and athleticism the expectation is the defense should improve. But can they beat the expected projection from KenPom? Either through more turnovers created or more defensive rebounds, the jump from 54th to 34th is only 1.5 points per 100 possessions. But that jump defensively would move them into the top 20. From a 7 seed range to a 5 seed range.
IF Shooters can find the range…
The expectations aren’t real high for Missouri as a three point shooting team. From the Tigers Preview amongst the SEC team previews last month:
If there are concerns going into the season it’s with the outside shooting. Mizzou’s returners shot 106 for 328 from beyond the arc which is just 32.3%. Mack is 50 for 169 on his career (29.6%), Porter is 110 for 343 (34.3%), Stone is 102 of 294 (34.7%), and Northweather has made 25 of 80 (31.3%). If you put all those numbers together Mizzou’s full roster has made 32.3% from outside the arc on over 1200 attempts. That would have gotten them 10th in the league last year, not awful but also not great. And only one team who finished below that finished higher in the standings (Texas A&M).
Last year the team shot 36.7% from outside, which was good enough for the 8th best offense in the country. In SEC play they were better, hitting 37.9%, good for 3rd in the league. There’s a wide gulf of made threes between 37-38% three point shooting, versus 32.3%. They attempted 806 threes last year, which at 32.3% is just 206 makes, much lower than the 296 they sank.
Some of the improvement from the 32% baseline will have to come in house. Guys like Anthony Robinson will have to be more aggressive from outside the arc, and Jacob Crews will need to sustain his late season surge. Then Pierce only made 33.6% last year, that number can improve.
If Missouri can find a way to hit around 35% of their threes, with the free throw shooting and two point attempts that would likely net them a top 10 offense.
Who can play their way onto draft board?
Last season I mentioned if Mark Mitchell could play his way onto NBA Draft Boards it might take the ceiling off Missouri. As it turns out they didn’t need him playing at that level to get close to their ceiling. But this season there is one player who I think can take that step: Anthony Robinson II.
Ant was creeping onto some 2nd round draft boards in the middle of last season, but you’d have to get deep into NBA Draft coverage to have noticed. However the leadership of the team was centered around Caleb Grill and Tamar Bates. This team is Ant’s team more than anything. Mitchell is still incredibly important, but Ant has the ability to be the best two-way point guard in the country.
I really believe that.
There aren’t many defensive point guards who are better. And with his ability to manipulate defenders in the pick and roll, and his consistency in making jump shots, he’s got a chance to lead this team in scoring.
The SEC is full of great point guards, and expectations are high for them all. Tahaad Pettiford, Labaron Philon, and Josh Hubbard are all ranked higher in EvanMiya.com’s BPR, a player efficiency ranking. But there’s only one point guard ranked higher on the defensive end in all of college basketball, that’s Georgetown’s KJ Lewis. He’s 13th in the SEC for offense, and 6th overall for defense.
I think he can be even bigger on offense. If Ant can overtake the offense of guys like Pettiford, Philon, or Hubbard, and plays his way into real NBA 1st round draft boards, he can unlock what Mizzou can truly be, which is a dark horse Final Four level team.
Put it all together
Any one of those outcomes above should improve the Tigers current outlook of being a team safely in the Tournament, but not one making much noise. However, if they can all be roped together…
EvanMiya.com is one of our favorite resources, and one of my favorite preseason exercises is when Evan runs a season simulation to give you an idea of the possibility. Missouri graded out well, with the Tigers coming in as one of the eight least uncertain teams within their range of outcomes. Last year, Mizzou’s preseason ranking was 53rd, Miya’s season simulation had them as a high of 17th, and he ranked them 29th at the end. So while they landed in the upper tier of expectations, they didn’t reach their ceiling.
This year the simulation exported a tighter range of outcomes than last year, with the best version of the season ending with an 11th rating, or roughly the equivalent of a three seed in the NCAA Tournament.
I think what last year’s data set showed that it’s usually safe to trust in the algorithms to be, at least, close.
But data sets work best with known information, and the future is always unknown.
What if Jacob Crews becomes a shooter with Caleb Grill type gravity? What if Annor Boateng is ready to be a fixture on the wing, and hit a consistent number of outside shots? What if T.O. Barrett takes a jump similar to the one Ant Robinson took last year? What if Trent Burns is healthy and as good as the coaches think he can be?
What if all those things and what if Shawn Phillips reset in Columbia is a huge success? What if Jevon Porter makes up for so many disappointing seasons from injured Porters in Tigers Hoops past? And then what if all those things… AND Anthony Robinson looks like a 1st round draft pick and Mark Mitchell is better and more consistent than last year?
A season begins with hope. Why not hope for the best?
