In 2025, it looked like Nathan Lukes had finally broken through to become a regular outfielder. He played 135 games in 2025, after having played 51 MLB games in the previous two seasons. It wasn’t an All-Star type season, but a pretty reasonable first full-timer season.
Then, before this past season, the Jays traded for Jesús Sánchez. I was a little less than thrilled, thinking that Lukes would be losing playing time:
He (Lukes) had his first full season in the majors last year, playing in 135 games,
hitting .255/.323/.407 with 12 home runs, and a 2.0 bWAR. He has an option year left, which, a week ago, I would have thought was a non-issue, but then the team traded for Jesús Sánchez. Now? Well, the team has Sánchez, Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho as left-handed hitting outfielders, who will likely get the bulk of the playing time against right-handed pitchers. Not to mention George Springer, who will get some outfield time. And then there is Myles Straw (a very good defensive replacement) and Davis Schneider, who will likely get time in the outfield against RHP. The Jays also have Eloy Jiménez and RJ Schreck who will get long looks this spring.
Well, Springer turned into a non-issue in the outfield. And Barger was injured. Schneider forgot home to hit a baseball. Jiménez and Schreck had 35 PA between them (well, Jiménez had 35 PA). And Varsho was traded at the deadline.
So, Lukes ended up with 12 more PA, even with 10 fewer games than 2025. He finished with numbers very similar to 2025.
| Season | WAR | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | GIDP | HBP | SH | SF | IBB | Pos | Awards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2 | 125 | 450 | 408 | 48 | 113 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 64 | .277 | .327 | .387 | .715 | 96 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | *9H78 |
Generated 11/11/2026.
Nathan had a 2.2 bWAR (up from 1.9) and a 2.2 fWAR (1.8 last year), giving him a value of $17.4 million to the Jays.
He had a .317 wOBA and a 102 wRC+, numbers pretty much identical to last year.
Nathan’s BABIP was .306 (up from .273 last year’s small sample).
His walk rate dropped 5.6% (down from 8.7). The strikeout rate was up, 14.2% from 13.7.
Lukes’s line-drive rate was down from last year (17.8% from 18.5). Ground ball rate up (52.8% from 46.5). The fly ball rate about the down (29.4% from 35.0). Slightly fewer of his fly balls left the park (9.9% from 10.4).
His soft contact was down (14.4% from 16.3), and hard contact was also down (26.6% from 31.1).
Nathan hit RHP (.291/.336/.408) much better than LHP (.213/.289/.293). Last year, his splits were very close.
He hit a better on the road (.295/.335/.419) than at home (.254/.318/.348) for the second year in a road.
Lukes hit better in the first half (.288/.343/.404) than the second half (.267/.313/.371) also for the second year in a row.
Lukes by month:
- April: .250/.286/.327 with 0 home runs, 1 walks and 7 strikeouts in 20 games, 14 starts.
- May: .429/.500/.524 with 0 home runs, 2 walks and 5 strikeouts in 6 games, 5 starts.
- June: .292/.344/.449 with 4 home runs, 6 walks and 16 strikeouts in 26 games, 23 starts.
- July: .244/.322/.321 with 1 home run, 8 walks and 11 strikeouts in 23 games, 20 starts.
- August: .225/.263/.393 with 5 home runs, 4 walks, 15 strikeouts in 27 games, 20 starts.
- September: .329/.365/.380 with 0 home runs, 4 walks and 10 strikeouts in 23 games, 21 starts.
With RISP he hit .239/.284/.337.
Times facing a starting pitcher:
- First: .239/.297/.315.
- Second: .244/.299/.400.
- Third: .350/.288/.353.
- He had 4 PA against a pitcher going 2 for4.
He hit very well in high leverage spots, .348/.352/.530. Also well in low leverage spots .287/.345/.414. The medium leverage was the bad part (.236/.297/.298).
Defensively, he played 786.2 innings in right, 80.0 in center and 60 in left. He made just 1 error, in left field. He had 9 assists in right and 1 in left. In all he was a +2 outs above average. He was a Gold Glove nominee in right field.
As a baserunner, Lukes was 1.1 runs below average. He stole 1 base, caught once.
Where he hit in the order in starts:
- 1st: 26 games: .300/.319/.418.
- 2nd: 44 games: .250/.324/.341.
- 3rd: 2 games: .500/.556/.500.
- 5th: 10 games: .263/.300/.289.
- 6th: 12 games. .311/.380/.444.
- 7th: 3 games: .308/.308/.846.
- 8th: 1 game: .143/.143/.143.
- 9th: 5 games. .280/.308/.400.
The Jays were 44/55 in Nathan’s starts.
Longest hitting streak: 13 games. Longest on base 16 games.
Longest without a home run, 26 games. Longest hitless streak 9 games.
Favourite team to face? He hit .368/.435/.526 in 7 games vs the Rangers.
Least favourite? He hit .091/.091/.182 in 3 games vs the White Sox.
Random Baseball Savant Numbers:
- Expected Batting Average: 68th percentile.
- Expected Slugging: 14th percentile.
- Hard Hit %: 9th percentile.
- Bat Speed: 2nd percentile.
- Squared Up: 86 percentile.
- Strikeout %: 87 percentile.
- Walk %: 9th percentile.
- Range: 80th percentile.
- Arm Value: 98th percentile.
- Running speed: 38th percentile.
Lukes is 32 (33 on July 12th). He won’t be a free agent until 2031. By then he’ll be 36. I’ve done this rant before, but I don’t think it is fair that guys who don’t make it to the majors until age 30 can’t make any big-time money until their career is winding down.
I mean, baseball minimum wage isn’t exactly minimum wage at Tim Hortons, but baseball players have more expenses than most of us, and a shorter career to make money than most of us (I had a blogger comparison in this spot, but it depressed me, so it is gone. The depression, not so much)0.
Often people will say ‘Veteran X’ would be a great coach after his career, and generally it is someone who has made over $100 million in their career. I say no, he’s not going to take batting coach money to stay away from his family for 9 months a year. But a guy like Nathan is far more likely to take a coach’s wage. And, in my opinion, more likely to be able to understand a player having difficulties and has likely heard every suggestion a coach could offer and knows which ones work. I’d also bet he could be a good outfield defense coach.
Anyway, we had another good season from Lukes. I’ll bet that the Jays will be looking to sign another outfielder to take his place and, in a couple of months, Lukes will be taking that spot back (being fair, in OOTP Baseball, I look for a replacement for him right away too, but then I don’t think OOTP has him as good a player as he is in real life).
I’ll admit, I like him maybe more than I should. I think it is because I identify with him:
- I hit left-handed.
- I know, even if I could convince myself that I could be a major league hitter, I wouldn’t have power.
- I know I couldn’t be a base stealer.
- I can convince myself I’d be a good defensive outfielder (though I’d have the worst arm you’ve ever seen).
- And I have made it late into my career without being called up to the big league team. Well, a fair bit later in life than Nathan.
Yeah, I shouldn’t identify with him at all, but I like him a lot.
Before the season we asked:
- If the over/under on games played is 60: 78.4% got it right (yeah 60 games was way to low, Steamer guessed he would play 60 games).
- If the over/under on games played is .273: 69.1% got it right (he was just barely over .273).
- Will the Jays use Lukes option this season? 25.8% were right. He did go down on a injury rehab assignment.
