I’m not going to try to change your mind on anything about this game. If you’re riding high and think Mizzou can upset Oklahoma on the road, be my guest, love your energy. If you are a firm believer that
the Tigers are going to get piledriven into the turf for 60 minutes, yeah, that’s a reasonable take as well.
The fact of the matter is that Oklahoma might not be a Top 10 team but it might be the best defense out there and they’ve been doing a great job of winning in the margins and doing enough in special teams and turnovers to continue winning, even in the harshest of environments.
Missouri can put up a fight but Eli Drinkwitz isn’t renowned for winning against ranked teams or on road trips…and this game is both.
Quick! Remind him there’s a (theoretical) trophy that can be won here! Focus on the trophy Eli! YOU WANT THAT TROPHY DON’T YOU?????
When Missouri Has the Ball
I feel confident that Missouri having the ball is going to be miserable to watch. Whether it’s wee baby freshman Matt Zollers in his third start ever or one-ankled-21-days-removed-from-catastrophic injury Beau Pribula, Mizzou’s offense is going to struggle mightily against the 5th best defense in SP+. It would take too long to list every single thing that Oklahoma’s defense does well but I will cite this mind boggling stat:
Opposing rushers are averaging 0 yards before getting hit by an Oklahoma defender.
Yes, you read that correctly.
Running back gets the ball, and before he can get out of the backfield, on average, he has been hit by a member of the Sooner defense.
Now, that won’t be unfamiliar to the King of Yards After Contact but…just prepare yourself to be stupefied by what will be perceived as atrocious run blocking.
So how to you combat this defense? I squinted and found a single way:
Create Explosive Plays on The Ground
Oklahoma is the #1 defense against the run in SP+. 5th in yards allowed per rush, 2nd in EPA per rush, 3rd in stuff rate…basically everything you don’t want to see as a fan of a Mizzou offense that needs to run the ball to live. The small crack in the armor though: 124th in yards per successful rush. There’s an outright chasm in yards the Sooners allow per average run (3.5) and yards they allow per average successful run (10.8). To translate that from paper to the field, Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts are going to get run into a very abusive wall of bodies all day, but if they can find a sliver to get through they will go a VERY long way. An explosive rush is any run that goes for 12+ yards and I believe Mizzou will need at least 8 of them to do any sort of meaningful damage.
Target the DBs
This probably isn’t a very good goal but I couldn’t figure out how else to put it.
Oklahoma’s defensive line is terrifying. The Sooner line ranks 4th in the nation in overall havoc while generating a Top 25 pressure rate and creating 25.5 sacks so far this season. Just the d-line!
The linebackers are no treat either, pitching in an additional 8.5 sacks while also being the team leaders in run stuffs. Oh, and they rank 7th in havoc generation. In the nation.
The secondary, however, are a bit different. They are clearly one of the better pass defenses out there as they rank 12th against the pass and allow opposing quarterbacks a 59.2% completion rate.
But they aren’t very havoc-y. And they don’t tackle well. And, despite the Alabama game, they don’t usually nab interceptions. Which might be the reason why successful rushes go so far on average.
So if there is a fearsome pass rush from the front seven and those guys are going to hit you and take you down immediately, it stands to reason you need to pepper in super fast passes to the outside to isolate the DBs, and hopefully generate some space for your running backs to find a few holes to blow through. This is going to be tough regardless of quarterback since Mizzou seemingly refuses to run any RPOs, but that’s the sort of approach that needs to get taken: on the edges, isolate corners and safeties in space, hope to create an explosive.
I guess my goal here is less than 3 sacks on the day and fewer than 10 run stuffs.
Finish Your Dang Drives
It feels like the ideal environment for Mizzou to win here is their standard preference: drag the game pace down to a crawl, limit possessions, attempt to leverage field position, maximize the few scoring opportunities you have. Doing all of this without a reliable kicker sucks but it does keep it simple: you can’t reliably launch a 40+ yard field goal, you NEED to get inside the 20 before even thinking about that and, even then, you’re so close already why don’t you go ahead and finish with a touchdown. Let’s shoot for at least 5 scoring opportunities and at least 4.8 points per scoring opportunity.
When Oklahoma Has the Ball
The Oklahoma offense is much less scary than the Oklahoma defense but will not be easy to manage, regardless. Since making a miracle return from injury quarterback John Mateer has seemingly started to get back into a rhythm with his receivers, which has helped a burgeoning run game finally start to click. Thankfully this is not an offense that is good at – or reliant on – explosive plays, so Mizzou’s defense might be in an ideal situation on Saturday.
Limit the Quarterback Runs
Credit Corey Batoon: his boys really have not been carved up by a mobile quarterback this year. Yes, Blake Shapen scored twice on the ground but that was a byproduct of Mississippi State insisting a running a dude who wasn’t super great at it. If Batoon knows your quarterback is a scooter, he’s done a good job of mitigating that impact. And John Mateer is a scooter: he’s 2nd on the team in rush attempts and 1st in total rush yards and rushing touchdowns; it’s clearly his thing. And he will get reckless about it, too, which opens him up for plenty of punishment. Oklahoma likes the short throws to outside receivers a ton and rarely throws to inside receivers/tight ends or to running backs so the assignments should be simple and clear. Let’s park this goal as limiting Mateer’s rushing success to under 40% and force Oklahoma’s freshman running back to produce on his own.
Win on 3rd Down
Oklahoma’s overall offensive 3rd-down success rate: 40%. Missouri’s overall defensive 3rd-down success rate: 31.1%. Oklahoma is difficult enough to deal with even when their offense struggles, let alone if you give them a chance to get going. Let’s hope the Tiger defense can punch them off the field reliably and keep their 3rd-down success rate to under 35%.
Conclusion
Eli Drinkwitz on the road (9-16 overall) against a Top 10 opponent (1-10 overall) ends in sadness every time. There is a specific strategy that can work here but it’s going to be a tough task to accomplish over 60 minutes. Good luck to all parties involved and try not to get too mad if you choose to watch this potential rock fight.
