The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (10-3-4, 4-2-3 ACC) play their regular season finale tonight, as they travel to Tallahassee to take on the #6 Florida State Seminoles (9-2-3, 5-2-2 ACC). The Deacs will come
in with some confidence, as, last Sunday, they were able to earn a 1-1 draw with undefeated #1 Notre Dame, the Irish’s first time dropping points in ACC play this season. As for the Noles, they are coming off of a monster 3-2 victory over then #3 and now #7 Virginia by a 3-2 score in Charlottesville. This was a badly needed victory for the Noles as well, as, prior to that game, they had posted a 1-2-2 record in their previous 5 games and were on a 3 game winless run. Beyond this game being another opportunity for the Deacs to add a marquee win to their resume, it is a must-win for both teams involved. As things currently stand, the Noles occupy the 6th and final ACC Tournament spot, sitting 2 points clear of the Deacs, who are in 8th in the conference. A loss or draw for the Deacs will confirm their position outside of the ACC Tournament slots, while a loss or draw for the Noles plus some results from elsewhere could leave them out of the field. With both teams in need of a win and continued momentum, this should be a blockbuster clash.
Opponent History
If the Notre Dame side that the Deacs played last week was a blue blood, this Florida State program is well on its way to being a one if it is not already. They began play in 1995 under head coach Heather Kerby-Nelson, who led a pedestrian FSU program for 4 seasons, posting only posting 1 season with more wins than losses and 3 total ACC wins in her tenure. Then, in 1999, Patrick Baker took over the head coaching position and began the program’s steep ascent. After a 9-10-1 season in 1999, Baker took the Noles to their first ever tournament appearance in 2000, advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. After a Round of 32 appearance in 2001 and another Sweet Sixteen in 2002, the Noles hit a new high in 2003, advancing all the way to the College Cup for the first time in program history. After a 2004 season that ended with an early NCAA Tournament exit, Baker would leave the FSU program for Georgia after posting an 80-46-11 record and a College Cup appearance. Ahead of the 2005 season, the Noles would appoint then United States U-19 head coach Mark Krikorian to lead their team, and Krikorian would strap a rocket booster to the program. Krikorian led the Noles to the College Cup in each of his first 3 seasons in charge, with FSU advancing to the national title game for the first time in 2007, falling to USC. FSU continued to have success in the NCAA Tournament in the next couple of years, advancing to the Elite Eight in 2008 and 2009, and they finally got their first piece of silverware in 2009, winning the ACC Regular Season Championship.
In 2010, the Noles would go to yet another Elite Eight before embarking on one of the most remarkable runs for a women’s soccer team in recent history. From 2011-2015, the Noles made 5 straight College Cups, won 2 ACC Regular Season Championships and 4 ACC Tournament Championships, and, finally, in 2014, they climbed to the mountaintop, winning the program’s first ever national championship after losing in the national title game the year prior. From there, the Seminoles cemented themselves as one of the nation’s truly elite teams. After a two year absence from the College Cup in 2016 and 2017, during which time they added another ACC tournament title, the Noles won their second national title in 2018, and, in 2021, they added a third title in what proved to be Krikorian’s final season in charge. When all was said and done for Krikorian at Florida State, he had won 3 national titles, 3 ACC Regular Season Championships, 6 ACC Tournament Championships, and he had made 11 College Cups during his 17 year tenure. He would leave the program to become an executive for the NWSL’s Washington Spirit, and his position would be filled by then Tennessee head coach Brian Pensky ahead of the 2022 season.
Pensky has kept up the level of excellence that Krikorian had instilled in the FSU program, winning the ACC Regular Season and Tournament Championship and advancing back to the College Cup in his first season in 2022, then posting the greatest season in Florida State’s history, winning the national, ACC Regular Season, and ACC Tournament titles in an undefeated season in 2023. Last year was a bit of a step back for the Noles, as, after a 5th consecutive ACC Tournament Championship, they would be eliminated in the second round of the NCAA Tournament by Vanderbilt in their earliest exit since 2016. This year, they are certainly still a national title favorite, but a loss in this game would give them more defeats than they suffered all of last season, and it would, potentially, snap their ACC title streak without even having an opportunity to defend it. Their history against the Deacs suggests this will be a fairly even matchup, as Wake holds the all-time advantage in the series 14-13-6, with the most recent fixture being a 1-1 draw in the ACC Tournament semifinals in which the Noles would advance 3-1 on penalties. It was the second of two matchups that the two sides played last year, the first of which the Deacs won by a 4-1 score at Spry in the regular season.
Tactics and Breakdown
The Noles typically set up in a 3-5-2 formation and press high, looking to disrupt the opposing team’s possession and win the ball up the field. They are still fairly aggressive in their own defensive end, marking opposition players tightly and looking to win the ball quickly and spring it up the flanks. In possession, they are more of a ball dominant team, looking to pass through the opposing lines and work the ball up the flanks to send crosses into the area for their forwards. They are not averse to playing a bit more direct and putting the ball in behind, but they are primarily a methodical team in the buildup. They commit a lot of numbers forward, and their forwards will also drift wide to offer support to their wingbacks up the flanks. Against a team like Wake that has gotten quality performances from their fullbacks week in and week out, the Noles’ ability to throw numbers up the wings will make for an interesting matchup. This FSU team also has plenty of height and physicality about them, particularly up front, which makes them a real handful to deal with on the crosses they constantly pump into the area. Against a Wake team that lacks some height in their defense, this will be something the Noles will look to exploit throughout the game. All in all, this is an elite Florida State team, and, a lot of the things they excel at (aerial attacking play, pressing, breaking down set defenses) are things that could really pose problems for this Wake side.
Statistically, the Noles are an interesting case. They are the 8th best attacking side in the nation based on goals per game, and they also sit 8th and 23rd in the country respectively in shots and shots on target per game. Defensively on the other hand, they are a Jekyll and Hyde unit. They sit 19th nationally in shutout percentage and 5th in the ACC in goals allowed average, making them appear to be a top defensive unit. However, the Noles have given up 2+ goals in each of their last 4 games, and they sit 320th nationally out of 345 in save percentage, which would lead one to believe they are a team that is a bit more susceptible defensively. Watching their recent games, it is clear that they are a team that has issues with balls in the air defensively, so, for a team like Wake that has big, physical center forwards and a couple of players that can put in excellent set piece deliveries, this could be an opportunity for the Wake attack to start clicking on a higher level. That said, it will be a tall task for this Wake side to contain one of the nation’s best offenses, but it is a challenge that they proved to be up to last weekend against Notre Dame. If they can contend with FSU’s forwards, they might just be able to get after their defense.
Players to Watch
For the Noles, they have plenty of attacking players that will cause the Deacs trouble, but, for me, the player to watch out for is forward #42 Wrianna Hudson. The sophomore from Rochester, NY has been a breakout star for FSU this year, scoring 11 goals in her 14 appearances this season. Hudson is an old school striker; she is a tall forward that makes her living in the penalty area, using her great instincts and finishing ability to score the majority of the chances she gets. Not everything she does looks pretty, but most of it is very effective. On the opposite end of the field, keep an eye on keeper #18 Kate Ockene. With the Noles’ issues between the sticks this season, freshman shotstopper Ockene has been thrust into a starting role in the last two games, her second and third collegiate starts respectively. The Noles gave up 4 goals across those two appearances, so it has been a less than auspicious start for Ockene, but they will likely lean on her again in tonight’s game. Against a Wake team that doesn’t create many chances through the run of play but always seems to find a way to create one or two big ones over the course of a game, Ockene will need to step up in a big moment or two in this matchup.
For the Deacs, I would keep an eye on forward #9 Elliana Ramirez. The freshman from Dallas has played limited minutes for most of this season, but she has made good on her opportunities. She has scored on each of her last two shots, netting the tying goal last weekend in the Deacs’ 1-1 draw against #1 Notre Dame and pulling one back for Wake in their 2-1 loss at NC State on 10/2. After her goal this past weekend, she is likely in line for more minutes today, and her off ball movement and aerial ability could prove effective in a game against a team like FSU that has struggled to defend their penalty area. Defender #19 Sierra Sythe is another player to watch in this game for the Deacs. Sythe has had a spectacular season to this point in the left back position, scoring twice and assisting 9 times, tied for 2nd most in the conference. She has been excellent defensively as well and put in a wonderful showing against Notre Dame this past weekend on that end of the field. She will be challenged again today defensively, but, as the Deacs’ primary set piece taker, she may also put in the decisive ball to get Wake an all important goal in this game as they look to return to the ACC Tournament.
Where to Watch
Kickoff is set for 6:00 PM EDT, and the game will be broadcast on the ACC Network.
