The San Francisco 49ers are preparing to kick off the NFL season Thursday night in Australia against their NFC West rivals, the Los Angeles Rams. The teams split meetings last season, with the 49ers winning in SoFi Stadium and the Rams returning the favor with a convincing win at Levi’s Stadium.
While both teams will remain familiar, they won’t be the same in 2025, as both Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay will add new wrinkles to their offenses.
With that in mind, let’s look at some statistical and personnel
trends that should continue to change for the 2026 season.
49ers rushing success rate
Christian McCaffrey was incredible in 2025. With a target rate of 23.5%, the running back was targeted more than CeeDee Lamb, Ladd McConkey, and Michael Pittman. So much of McCaffrey’s production comes from Shanahan’s ability to create space for McCaffrey and mismatches in the passing game. However, on the flip side, the 49ers ranked 16th in the NFL with a 42.4% success rate on rushing plays. Middle of the pack has never been where the 49ers offense sits, but there were multiple reasons for the down season on the ground.
McCaffrey, in particular, ranked 37th in the NFL in EPA/rush with his 0.97 average yards before contact, coming in at 46th in the league. On outside zone runs, McCaffrey’s yards-before-contact number falls to 0.63. The 49ers finish 8th in the NFL in EPA/play because of the fifth-highest EPA/pass in the league at 0.12. This number has to go up, and if it does, the offense will be burning bright all season.
21 personnel groupings
The 49ers, by far, lead the NFL in 21 personnel with a league-high 393 snaps from 21, which is a 36.32% rate. Only the Baltimore Ravens compete with the 49ers, with a 28.77 EPA out of 21 personnel, second to the 49ers’ 29.99 EPA. This trend is sure to continue while fullback Kyle Juszczyk is on the roster. The 49ers use the veteran fullback to identify coverages and to create lanes as a blocker in the running game.
However, the 49ers finished tenth with an -0.02 EPA/rush from 21 personnel. The bump is from the 0.18 EPA/pass, and still the 49ers finished with the highest total EPA from 21 personnel. While the NFL is shifting to lighter backfields, the trend of McCaffrey and Juice on the field isn’t going anywhere.
Interception rate
Look, this may seem like cherry-picking or taking a simple idea and running with it, but 49ers quarterbacks finished 27th with an interception rate of 2.79%. Funny enough, the Seattle Seahawks had a higher interception rate at 3.12%, but when your defense is dominant and can bail you out, the difference is clear. The 49ers defense will improve from last year, simply because it’s almost impossible to be worse in certain metrics, but turning the football and putting pressure on this defense isn’t the optimal approach.
We love when Brock Purdy takes calculated risks, but the biggest improvement needed in his game is limiting interceptions and turnovers overall. You don’t want to curb his playmaking, but living to play another down is definitely a place for Purdy to raise his game.
