Who: Phoenix Suns (11-6) vs. Indiana Pacers (10-4)
When: 7:30pm Arizona Time
Where: Mortgage Matchup Center — Phoenix, Arizona
Watch: Peacock
Listen: KMVP 98.7, KSUN
This is not the matchup we thought it was
going to be, is it? The Suns and the Rockets sit only 0.5 games apart in the standings, and with December creeping closer, the sixth-seeded Suns are sitting 2.5 games back of the two seed in the West. What looked like a simple Kevin Durant return game when the schedule dropped has turned into something that carries real weight.
This is the first time these two teams, who pulled off that trade a week before the draft last June, are seeing each other this season. And yet, only one of the headliners from that deal is available. Jalen Green is out with a strained hamstring. Kevin Durant is also not suiting up as he handles family matters. The long awaited revenge angle will have to sit on the shelf for now.
What is still very real is the matchup itself. Two competitive Western Conference teams. Two programs trying to carve out space in a crowded race. No revenge narrative needed. The game still matters, and it still carries teeth.
Probable Starters
Injury Report
Suns
- Rasheer Fleming – QUESTIONABLE (Left Ankle Sprain)
- Grayson Allen – OUT (Right Quadriceps Contusion)
- Ryan Dunn – OUT (Right Wrist Sprain)
- Jalen Green – OUT (Right Hamstring Strain)
- Mark Williams – OUT (Right Knee Return from Injury Management)
Rockets
- Steven Adams — QUESTIONABLE (Ringht Ankle)
- Kevin Durant — OUT (Personal Reasons)
- Tari Eason — OUT (Right Oblique)
- Dorian Finney-Smith — OUT Left Ankle)
- Jae-Sean Tate — OUT (Personal Reasons)
- Fred VanVleet — OUT (Right ACL)
What to Watch For
The Rockets might be without Kevin Durant, but talent-wise, they are still a problem. Alperen Sengun has levelled up. He is playing like a centerpiece, slicing defenses apart while averaging 22.7 points and 10 rebounds a night. Houston owns the best offensive rating in the NBA and sits second in net rating, tucked right behind Oklahoma City.
For Phoenix, that means the slow start cannot happen.
That Spurs style sputtering start could get them buried here. The Rockets have enough firepower that if they get a lead, they know how to sit on it and squeeze the air out of the building. This is the second night of a back-to-back, so we are going to learn a lot about the Suns’ legs early. We are going to learn who has gas and who does not.
To their credit, the Suns have that Mike Myers thing going. They do not disappear. They keep walking you down. They keep showing up in your peripheral vision until you cannot ignore them anymore. But Houston can keep you at arm’s length with their talent. That is the real test. Can Phoenix close the gap before those arms get locked straight out.
Key to a Suns Win
If the Suns want any chance in this game, it starts on the glass. Houston is the best rebounding team in the league, and they sit first in offensive rebounding as well. If Phoenix cannot control that area in some way, this can get ugly in a hurry.
Houston is also sitting at 42% from three, which makes the rebounding even more important. When you give up offensive boards, your defense gets scrambled. Rotations get late. Closeouts get sloppy. That is how open shooters get born. And Houston has shooters.
Reed Sheppard is knocking them down at 48.8% from deep. Our old buddy Josh Okogie is sitting at 42.9%. If you let those guys step into clean looks, it becomes a math problem that works against you fast.
They also allow the fewest rebounds per night in the NBA. That is not accidental. That is identity. This game is going to be decided on the glass. Phoenix has to meet that fight head on, or it is going to be a long night.
Prediction
I want to keep the good vibes rolling. I want the Suns to beat the Rockets. I really do. But I do not know if it is going to happen. Houston is a really good basketball team, and even without Kevin Durant, they have multiple ways to beat you.
Phoenix has bodies they can throw at them inside, but that might not matter if they cannot own the glass. For context, the Suns sit 19th in the NBA in rebounding. That is the hill.
So if I am calling it like I see it, I think they drop this one. Not because of effort. Not because of fight. Because of the boards.
Rockets 118, Suns 112
