Good morning Hawkeye fans! After an exhilarating road win to kick off their Big Ten conference slate, your Iowa Hawkeyes are back home in Iowa City with all the pomp and circumstance that today’s matchup warrants.
The #14 Hawks (not to be confused with the Atlanta Hawks) are playing host to the #5 Ohio State Buckeyes and after the upset in Ann Arbor, the nation is watching. Downtown Iowa City has been abuzz since the calendars flipped from September to October.
Things kicked off on Thursday with the
launch of the new Caitlin 1 shoes from Caitlin Clark and Nike with a massive production on Iowa Avenue and Clinton Street. That has built into the weekend as the Pat McAfee Show went live from the Pentacrest on Friday.
Early this morning, things continue as ESPN’s College GameDay is broadcasting live from Iowa City for the first time in 20 years. Of course, this week’s celebrity guest picker is none other than former Hawkeye Caitlin Clark.
The pageantry is warranted. This is, without question, the toughest game on Iowa’s schedule and one of the biggest at Kinnick in years.
The Buckeyes arrive at 3-1 with the receipts of a juggernaut and one very sour taste in their mouths. Ohio State led Texas by 20 points before gagging it away in the dying seconds two weeks ago and they’ve spent the time since that loss looking like a wounded apex predator. Quarterback Julian Sayin is completing 72.2% of his passes a year after completing 77%. He’s throwing to Jeremiah Smith, who has his sights set on breaking every Ohio State receiving record and is already well on his way.
OSU can put points up in a hurry and they can do it from virtually anywhere on the field. Their offensive line, though they’ll be without starting tackle Phillip Daniels today, has allowed Julian Sayin to stay largely clean and anything beyond two seconds in the pocket is likely too long for any human defensive back to keep up with Smith in single coverage. Even if Iowa can manage to hold the Buckeyes for the majority of a series, he’s a risk to score on every play.
The question is whether Iowa can keep up. The formula from Ann Arbor was a familiar one: hang around, in the turnover battle, steal possessions on special teams and land the counterpunch late. That’s been Kirk’s recipe against more talented teams for more than two decades in Iowa City. There’s just one foe that strategy has never really been employed against – the Buckeyes.
Why? Put simply, because hanging around with the Buckeyes has seemingly always been a virtual impossibility. While Iowa can kill clock, grind out the running game and hope for mistakes out of their opponent in most games, that only lasts a short time against a team that can score virtually at will. Keeping up requires taking more chances. More chances means more variability and the results look like they have against OSU (these two teams haven’t had a one score contest since 2010).
Phil Parker’s defense relies on keeping things in front of them, bending but not breaking and holding opponents to three points when they find their way into the redzone while capitalizing on turnovers. But nobody keeps Smith in front of them for four quarters. He’s already got 7 TDs through four weeks and is averaging nearly 19 yards per catch.
Where things get really sticky in this matchup for Iowa is the other side of the ball. The Hawkeyes have had the most success this year when Tim Lester has used the pass to loosen up defenses and soften the box for the run game. To keep up with a high-flying aerial attack from the Buckeyes, they’ll no doubt need Hank Brown to replicate that final Michigan drive more than once. But Ohio State boasts the nation’s #13 pass defense, giving up just 160 yards per game through the air.
They’re just a bit more vulnerable on the ground where they rank 37th nationally giving up 114 yards per game. The Hawkeyes are averaging 6.5 yards per carry on the year and we’ve seen several explosives out of Kamari Moulton Braeden Jackson. They’ll need to hit on those and more today or this could look like a mirror image of 2017.
As we countdown to kickoff, here’s everything you need to know about today’s matchup.
Date: Saturday, October 3
Time: 2:30 pm CT
Matchup: #5 Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1, 1-0) at #14 Iowa Hawkeyes (4-0, 1-0)
Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa
TV: CBS
Updated Weather Forecast: Sunny with a high in the low to mid 60s. NO RAIN. Another perfect day for football.
Updated FanDuel Line: Iowa +14.5, O/U 45.5
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