Chances are if you are reading this article, you’re close to done with Bo Naylor. If you’re ok waiting longer and seeing if he can figure things out, welcome to the ranks of the few, the proud, the patient to a fault.
Here we are on May 6th and Bo Naylor has a 6 wRC+ and a 23.5/7.1 K/BB%. Among MLB players with 80 or more plate appearances this season, Bo and Ke’Bryan Hayes are the worst hitters so far. Interestingly, both Naylor and Hayes have expected weighted on-base averages of around .300 and actual
weighted on-base averages of .180-.190. Hayes has a batting-average on balls in play of .123 and Bo is at .155. A wOBA of around .300 would be around 90 wRC+, which would be more than acceptable for a catcher in MLB (and for Hayes with his excellent defense, but this article isn’t about Ke’Bryan Hayes).
So, is Bo simply unlucky? Well… pretty much. Naylor has the lowest swinging-strike rate of his career, he is not going outside the zone more than his career norms, he has career highs in zone-contact rate and overall contact rate, and he’s running a career high barrel rate. His batted-ball date for groundballs, fly balls and line drives looks solid, also. I really hate to tell you this, guys, but Bo Naylor seems to be simply having one of the most unlucky starts to a season we’ve ever seen.
It’s obviously notable that pitchers on the Guardians do not seem to throw as well with Bo behind the plate. Guardians’ pitchers have an ERA of right around 4 with Bo and a 3.34 ERA with Austin Hedges. How much of that is Bo’s fault is virtually impossible to say. Bo is around average in blocking and pop-time, and in the 72nd percentile for framing. He’s not been good with catching would-be basestealers, but neither has Austin Hedges, so I’d tend to blame this on the pitchers and those coaching them on how to hold runners. Overall, Bo still looks like an average defender by the numbers, and, if the team has issues with his pitch-calling and/or receiving, it’ll be up to them to come to grips with that. They could always call pitches from the dugout as needed.
Of course, as luck would have it, the Guardians do have two catchers absolutely lighting up the statsheets as hitters in Triple-A Columbus. Kody Huff has a 140 wRC+ and an 18.9/11.1 K/BB% with a .333 BABIP. Cooper Ingle has a 246 wRC+ with a 19/33 K/BB% with a .480 BABIP. Recently, Guardians executive James Harris made it clear the team does not believe Ingle is not ready to play catcher at the major league level. When will that change – who can say? As for Huff, of course, there is no way to know that 140 wRC+ would translate at all to the majors. But, in general, Huff has a great defensive reputation. Does there a come a point where the Guardians just acknowledge that Bo is immensely snake-bit as a hitter and admit some frustrations with his pitch-calling and handling?
To be honest, I find that unlikely. I think until the time would come where Bo’s underlying metrics come more in line with his actual production, we are going to see him continue to get the lionshare of plate appearances to try to figure things out. And, while I am not opposed to getting a look at any player who is dominating in Triple-A, I think that patience is probably the right decision here.
Throw your tomatoes, folks. We are going to get more Bo for a while. Let’s all just hope he can start to right the ship – and hope the same for Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo while we’re at it.
