Competitive baseball—what a thought! It’s been a beautiful stretch for the O’s, who, after getting swept by the AL East-leading Rays the week before, returned the favor in emphatic fashion, then pulled off a series split against the Blue Jays. They started May by losing five of six series and ended it with a 7-3 homestand. They’ll look to carry that energy to Boston, where the opposition is in considerably worse shape.
The Boston Red Sox enter this series at 25-33, last in the American League East.
The 2026 Red Sox offense has been called by longtime observers the worst they can remember in nearly 50 years of following the team, with serious concerns about the lack of power production up and down the lineup. The rotation, heavily upgraded over the offseason with the additions of Ranger Suárez and Sonny Gray, has been a relative bright spot — meaning the O’s will need to be sharp at the plate to take advantage of Boston’s overall mediocrity.
Adding to the notes of organizational chaos, the Red Sox fired manager Alex Cora on April 25, after a 10-17 start to the season, replacing him with Worcester Red Sox skipper Chad Tracy on an interim basis. The vibes are not immaculate in Boston these days, which is totally fine by me.
Game 1: Tuesday, June 3, 6:45 PM
RHP Shane Baz (2-5, 4.48 ERA, 57 SO) vs. LHP Connelly Early (5-2, 2.95 ERA, 57 SO)
Through his first eight starts, Baz carried a 5.48 ERA and a 1-5 record while failing to locate his offspeed pitches and giving up tons of contact. But like the team in general, something has changed for him over the last three weeks. In those three starts, he’s allowed just five runs in 20 innings with 19 strikeouts. His best start of the bunch came against his former employer: a season-high nine strikeouts with just one run allowed over seven innings against the Rays, to bring his ERA down to 4.48. Baz, who signed a five-year, $68 million extension before throwing a pitch for Baltimore, looks like he may finally be settling in.
Connelly Early had a remarkable rookie debut in 2025: four dominant regular-season starts and a crackling postseason appearance against the Yankees, raising him up to another planet in terms of visibility. In 2026, the nice surface ERA of 2.95 masks some messier underlying numbers: his FIP has risen to 4.46, his strikeout rate is way down (from 13.5 to 8.4 per nine), his walk rate is up, and he’s allowed nine home runs in 60-plus innings. Early was a fifth-round pick for Boston out of the University of Virginia in 2023. Like his name suggests, the Orioles will want to test him early (heh) before he settles in.
Game 2: Wednesday, June 4, 6:45 PM
RHP Chris Bassitt (4-3, 5.06 ERA, 36 SO) vs. LHP Payton Tolle (2-2, 2.61 ERA, 46 SO)
Chris Bassitt’s struggles were another recurring theme in the first two months of this season, but there’s reason for optimism: the Orioles gave him six days of rest last time out, and he showed glimpses of his old self with six innings of one-run ball against Toronto. His upward trend is not as clear as Baz’s, though: over his last five, he’s interspersed two starts of one run or less with three or three runs allowed or more. Which version of Bassitt shows up against a Boston team desperate for a win could be of the more interesting questions of this series.
Another Red Sox starter in his second year of pro ball, the expertly mustachioed Payton Tolle is a product of Stillwater, OK, just like the Orioles’ second baseman Jackson Holliday. I couldn’t find proof that the two know each other, but I’d be surprised if they didn’t. Tolle electrified Fenway in his 2026 season debut against the Yankees, striking out the first five batters he faced and finishing with 11 K’s over six innings. The 23-year-old was a second-round pick by the Red Sox in the 2024 draft out of TCU, where he was named Big 12 Pitcher of the Year. Statcast loves him: his xBA allowed sits at .183 and his barrel rate against is just 5.8%—e.g., he’s not just getting lucky. This is the kind of matchup that could get uncomfortable quickly for the Orioles offense if they fall behind early.
Game 3: Thursday, June 5, 6:45 PM
LHP Trevor Rogers (2-6, 6.84 ERA) vs. TBD (probably RHP Brayan Bello (2-5, 5.62 ERA, 40 SO))
It’s mysterious and frustrating that the guy who lit pitching on fire last season with a franchise record 1.81 ERA in 18 starts now has an ERA above six. But after an Opening Day seven-inning shutout against Minnesota, Trevor Rogers has just stunk, allowing four runs or more in six of ten appearances. Is it health? Is it pitch tipping? Bad luck? None of the above? It’s great to have Baz and Kyle Bradish back in the fold, but a competitive Orioles run will take more than this from their once and presumptive ace.
Brayan Bello is a tale of two seasons. In games he’s started, he has a 9.68 ERA; coming in behind an opener, he has a 0.71 ERA in 25 1/3 innings. It’s unclear what’s going on, and whether Boston will use an opener ahead of him here, but overall, his numbers work out to hittable. His xBA against is a concerning (for Boston, appealing for Baltimore) .307 and his hard-hit rate is 42%. He’s not striking out many hitters, either, especially in his starter version: just 18 in 30 2/3 innings. The Orioles need to take advantage.
There’s the matchups. The Orioles have a chance to keep stacking wins here against a club in genuine disarray. Boston’s pitching can keep them in games, but their hitters ain’t helping. If Baltimore keeps swinging the bats the way they did against Tampa Bay and Toronto, this is a very winnable series.
How many games do you think the O’s take? Let us know in the comments.
