The Orioles welcome the first-place Dodgers to Baltimore this weekend after sweeping their division rival, the Padres. The Dodgers had a golden opportunity to pull away from the Padres, but couldn’t manage it. Instead, they were swept by the last-place Pirates. As such, the Dodgers go into the weekend with a two-game lead over the Padres, which is the closest divisional race in the majors.
The Dodgers are always good. Since 2013, they have won the division every season but once. They have two World
Series wins in that time, including last year when they defeated the Yankees. They are good again this year, but not quite as good as they have been in other recent years. Their 78 wins is the second lowest win total of any current division leader.
Offensively, they are tough to beat. They average 5.09 runs per game, second most in the NL. The team’s total offensive fWAR of 23.6 is fourth best. The Orioles, by contrast, sit at 14. The usual suspects lead the way for the Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani has 46 home runs and his SLG of .610 leads the league. His teammate, Will Smith, is sporting a .405 OBP. Freddie Freeman is doing typical Freddie Freeman things. One disappointment on the team has been Mookie Betts, though he has turned things on over the last month with an .859 OPS.
The Dodgers’ starting pitching has been good this year, but they have struggled with injury. Just one of their starters, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, has been in the rotation the full year. Luckily for them, he has been very good. Clayton Kershaw has been limited to 18 starts; Tyler Glasnow, 14; and Ohtani, 11. Sixteen different pitchers have started a game for them.
Game 1: Friday, September 5th, 7:05 ET – MASN
RHP Tyler Glasnow (14 GS, 68.2 IP, 3.41 ERA / 4.16 FIP) vs RHP Dean Kremer (26 GS, 155.1 IP, 4.52 ERA / 4.04 FIP)
Glasnow made five starts at the beginning of the season, then went on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. He returned in July and has been good in the nine starts since, pitching to a 3.02 ERA. His strikeout numbers have been good but he has, at times, struggled with control. In four of his nine starts since his return from the IL, Glasnow has walked between three and five batters.
Kremer has looked very bad in his last few starts. Last weekend against the Giants he had his worst start of the year with seven runs allowed in just three innings. Just one start before that, he gave up six runs to the Astros. Prior to that, Kremer had been on a pretty good run that had his ERA down to a respectable 3.97. Not anymore. Kremer is, of course, the lone player remaining from the trade that sent Manny Machado to the Dodgers in 2018. Maybe he’ll put together a revenge game? Probably not. In his only other start against the Dodgers in his career, he allowed four runs in 4.2 innings.
Game 2: Saturday, September 6th, 7:05 ET – MASN
RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (26 GS, 146.2 IP, 2.82 ERA / 3.06 FIP) vs LHP Trevor Rogers (14 GS, 90.1 IP, 1.39 ERA / 2.44 FIP)
Now this is a pitching matchup!
In his second season, Yamamoto continues to impress. This season, he has allowed three or fewer runs in 22 of his 26 starts. Nine times, he has allowed none. He strikes out over 10 batters per nine innings with a mid-90s fastball. His value chart on Statcast is a sea of red. Opposing batters are OPS’ing just .576 with a sub .200 batting average.
Trevor Rogers has been the best pitcher in baseball since making his season debut at the end of May. It never stops being weird saying that. He has pitched at least six innings in each of his last 10 starts with an ERA of just 1.19 over that span. He is sporting a 0.819 WHIP and has allowed just 55 hits in just over 90 innings. Opposing batters have an OPS of just .452. 452! His bWAR of 5.1 is fifth-best among starting pitchers in all of baseball. The four players ahead of him have twice as many starts. He’s really good.
This game will celebrate the 30th anniversary of 2131, so it would be nice if the Orioles can put up a good showing. Having Rogers on the mound is a good start.
Game 3: Sunday, September 7th, 1:35 ET – MASN
RHP Clayton Kershaw (18 GS, 93.1 IP, 3.28 ERA / 3.67 FIP) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (26 GS, 140.2 IP, 4.41 ERA / 4.90 FIP)
In his illustrious career, Clayton Kershaw has made starts against 28 different baseball teams. The only two he has not started against are the Dodgers (obviously) and the Orioles. That changes on Sunday, when Kershaw makes his career debut against the Orioles. Kershaw started the season on the IL after having knee surgery. It’s been a nice bounce-back year for the 18-season veteran after he was limited to just seven starts in 2024.
Much like Kremer, Sugano is coming off of two poor starts. He had a nice stretch before then, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him as the season winds down. Something tells me that this will not be a good matchup for him.
