The dust has settled on the MLB Trade Deadline. After weeks of anticipation, the Yankees came away with a thinner haul than most probably expected, picking up a pair of hitters in Luis Garcia Jr. and Heliot Ramos but not doing much else, content to maintain the status quo with their pitching staff, and with their catching situation. The latter decision stuck out like a sore thumb, as their direct division rivals, the Red Sox and Rays, made major backstop additions yesterday, Boston landing Adley
Rutschman in a blockbuster, and the Rays picking up Liam Hicks from the Marlins.
It’s not the deadline most fans were hoping for, and though the Yankees are better today than they were a few days ago (heck, even a few hours ago, as they swapped out Anthony Volpe for top prospects George Lombard Jr. and demoted Jasson Domínguez to make room for Ramos), it remains to be seen if they’ve done enough to either win the division or the American League. So, now that the stage has been set, let’s ask: where do the Yankees rank among AL contenders? Can you make a case that the Yankees are favorites to win the American League?
I can already hear a loud chorus of fans ready to answer an incredulous “No!”. The case against seems fairly obvious: the Yankees have been unable to hit their way out of a paper bag the last eight weeks, their offensive production at catcher has been a nightmare, and multiple players on the infield dirt have not played to expectations. The Yankees have struggled of late, still are waiting to get some key players back from the injured list, and are behind in the standings 3.5 games back of the first-place Rays.
But I think there’s an equally plausible case for the Bombers. No, they didn’t add pitching at the deadline, content to go with what they have. In this case, though, playing to the status quo is in the Yankees’ favor (last night’s Cam Schlittler dud and Angel Chivilli meltdown notwithstanding). They entered the deadline with the best ERA in baseball by distance this season, and that’s with arguably four of their five most talented starting pitchers all missing significant chunks of the season due to injury. The conventional wisdom heading into the deadline was that the Yankees were pitching the lights out, but needed to add bats, and that’s what happened.
And after doing that, their roster projects as well as any in the (American) League. In fact, by FanGraphs projections, the roster is tops in the AL the rest of the way, and not only that, FanGraphs’ playoff odds have the Yankees with the best pennant odds in the Junior Circuit. That is thanks in no small part to the wide-open nature of the AL. FanGraphs gives the three AL division leaders a combined chance of winning the league of roughly one-in-three, compared to roughly three-in-four odds for the NL division leaders.
There are a couple hinge points in those projections that forecast the Yankees as tops in the AL. One, of course, is the status of Aaron Judge, who is projected to produce a .986 OPS in 78 plate appearances. Is that OPS figure, and that plate appearance amount, optimistic? Pessimistic? It’s possible Judge returns in September and hits at a high level (Brian Cashman has indicated that’s what the team expects), but it feels just as plausible that Judge doesn’t play again this year. Also highly influential is one’s estimation of the Yankees’ catching situation; FanGraphs rather charitably pegs the team’s catcher’s room as tenth best rest-of-season, partially because Austin Wells and Co. have always rated well defensively, and because Wells in particular has underperformed his offensive peripherals in 2026.
It can be hard to feel optimistic through long periods of iffy play and avalanches of injuries, but the Yankee roster at anything resembling full health should be favored against any AL team. What do you think? Is that an overly optimistic view? Or do you believe the projections that still see this as the top squad in the AL?
On the site today, we’ll have loads more reaction to the Trade Deadline, with analysis of both of the Yankees’ major moves. We’ll also have a recap of a light Monday of action from Andrew, and a profile of Roger Clemens, who turns 64 today. Later, Michael analyzes the week that was down on the farm, while Josh and John our AL West and Central monthly rundowns.
Today’s Matchup:
New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
TV: YES Network, Cardinals.TV
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
