Seaver King has gotten off to a very interesting start to his Triple-A career. Overall, he has put up good numbers, especially after a big game last night. King is hitting .296 with an .860 OPS in 24 games so far. Yesterday, he went 3 for 4 with a homer and a double, and showed his special athleticism.
When you look at those numbers and performances, you would think a big league call up could be imminent. The Nats have a need at second
base, and they have a former top 10 pick mashing in AAA. However, when you dig beneath the surface, it is not that simple.
During King’s AA stint to start this season, he made two big changes. King was hitting the ball much harder and his approach was much better. In AA, he walked over 13% of the time, and his swing rate went way down. He also had 5 homers and 18 XBH, after not showing a ton of power last year.
In AAA, the power has proven to be real. King already has 5 homers and 11 XBH in Rochester. It has become clear that King is an elite power/speed threat, who has crazy athletic tools. King’s bat speed and exit velocities are way up.
However, the plate discipline has not been as sticky in AAA. After walking over 13% of the time in AA, he has just a 3.8% walk rate in Rochester. King has returned to his free swinging ways, with his overall swing rate going from 45.8% in Harrisburg to 56% in Rochester. Right now, King’s chase rate is over 40% in Rochester.
That is a pretty big red flag, and something King will have to sort out before he gets to the big leagues. He is making plenty of contact right now, but that chase rate will be exposed in the big leagues. The Nats are definitely talking to King about this, but at his core, Seaver King is a free swinger.
We do not want him to be uber patient like James Wood because that is just not in his DNA. However, if he wants to take the next step, King will need to get that swing rate back under 50%. If King can be more selective, he has massive upside due to his speed, power and contact skills.
After a disastrous 2025 campaign, this season has been a massive success for the Wake Forest product. Between AA and AAA, King is hitting .319 with a .938 OPS, hitting 10 homers and driving in 48. He has more homers and RBI in 59 games than he had in 125 games last year.
This monster year has made King a consensus top 100 prospect, and has him cracking on the door of the big leagues. With that in mind, I do not want to be too harsh on King. Even with the extra chase, King is still putting up good numbers in Rochester.
However, for Seaver King to reach his ceiling, that chase needs to come down. His chase rate in AAA is similar to what Luis Garcia’s is in the big leagues. Garcia’s combination of hitting ability and power is comparable, and probably slightly better than King’s. Even with Garcia’s hit and power, we have seen how the lack of discipline has capped his offensive ceiling.
King has shown he can be more selective, so he needs to get back to that. While fans will be clamoring for their new King at second base, he needs to stop chasing so much. That is the final task before Seaver King becomes a big leaguer. King has a monster ceiling, but he will need to fight back against his swing happy instincts to fully reach that ceiling.
