Ole Miss and Georgia are a little over 48 hours from kickoff in the CFP Quarterfinals at the Sugar Bowl, and odds are in favor of the Bulldogs repeating a win over the Rebels.
FanDuel Sportsbook opened with Georgia as a -6.5 favorite with the number pushing to -7.5 at times but settling back to -6.5 on Tuesday. On the moneyline, Ole Miss sits at a +200 with a $100 bet winning a bettor $200 for those of you who don’t gamble often.
So the Rebels are not longshots by any means, but it’s two to one odds
the Bulldogs pull off the win and a 50/50 chance for a touchdown or more win.
But what would be the three keys for No. 6 Ole Miss (12-1) to upset No. 3 Georgia (12-1)? The Cup has you covered after watching every game, re-watching every game and filling a tumbler with bourbon and ice to write this. It’s hard work, but someone has to do it.
- Avoid injuries: In the CFP first round game against Tulane, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy both came out of the game with some dings, but Lacy’s shoulder pain has carried over to this game. His ability to run the football changes how Ole Miss’ offense works, so any potential for time off the field is a detriment at this point. Chambliss is going to scramble and run, so his potential for an injury is always out there. He has been an iron man thus far, and it has to continue to give the Rebels offense a chance to get down the field. Outside of just these two dynamic players, there is just not a ton of depth at just about any position without some drop off, so keeping the best players on the field is going to be crucial on Thursday.
- Score 35+ points: This is a tall order any time you face a Kirby Smart defense and a talented Georgia team. Georgia’s offense is not elite as it averages around 31 points per game, and in its one loss, only scored 21 points and also had wins where the Bulldogs only scored 28, 20, 24, and 16 points. Ole Miss putting 35+ points on the board puts enormous pressure on Gunnar Stockton to be mistake free.
- Plus two turnover margin: This Ole Miss team is solid and tough to beat when all is even on the turnover front. It can trade possessions and be more offensively efficient than most teams in the country. Give this offense two or three extra possessions, and its damn near impossible to beat. The Landshark defense has to build on the first round success against Tulane where it created three turnovers and get the ball for the offense. It is an easy concept to preach more turnovers, because Georgia has only turned the ball over 12 times all season. The Bulldogs defense meanwhile has only caused 12 turnovers for an overall margin of zero. Ole Miss is almost exactly in the same place with 13 turnovers given and 13 turnovers created for a zero margin.
There’s only some of these things that are in any control of our players and coaches. It’s a recipe for success that would give Ole Miss a decided advantage in this rematch to switch the outcome and give the Rebels the momentum to move on to the CFP semifinals.
Spot the ball. Let’s kick this damn thing off already.
