Just like that, the waking nightmare that has been consuming the Cubs comes to an end. I don’t know about you, but I have no surprise whatsoever that the streak went away with a thump and not a whimper. The Cubs put 10 runs on the board while running up 14 hits and drawing seven walks. Two batters were hit by pitches and so the Cubs managed to have 23 baserunners. They managed a team hitting line of .341/.460/.561. For one day, the offense played at the level of an MVP candidate.
I said this just
a day or two ago. I understand why Ian Happ would get a day off or two given his struggles. Also, any resurgence of this team is almost certainly going to involve Ian so I don’t have a lot of joy seeing him out of the lineup. With his five-RBI outburst that included a homer, Ian continues to lead the Cubs in OPS among qualified hitters. He does so by leading them in slugging percentage and being second in on-base percentage. Until some of his teammates can sustain their production, it is a justifiable choice for Ian to bat in the middle of the lineup where he is typically found. Importantly, he has generally been the Cub who has performed best against right handed pitching through almost his entire Cub career.
The offense was the big story of the night, but there was a subplot. Jameson Taillon in his return to face the team that drafted him had another rough outing. The Cubs are surely approaching a difficult decision with Jameson. I’m not sure that his stuff would play significantly better out of the bullpen, but he doesn’t appear to have the ability to consistently get major league hitters out well enough to justify his spot in the starting the rotation once a few more pitchers get healthy. You hate to see it, but at some point, unless there is something ailing him that can be fixed physically, he may be nearing the end.
The Cub bullpen came through to keep this one on ice. They threw four scoreless innings, striking out five. Jacob Webb led the way with a perfect inning and three strikeouts. Webb appears to have emerged as the Cubs best reliever. Ethan Roberts appears to be a lot of smoke and mirrors, but he did throw another scoreless inning and has an 0.68 ERA that comes almost entirely in low leverage situations. You almost have to consider him for some higher leverage spots.
Speaking of leverage, am I the only one who has noticed how little leverage the Cub bullpen has encountered year to date? I’ve mentioned this in passing a couple of times. But this is the first time I’ve done a deep dive into it. Prior to Wednesday’s games, the Cubs had played 55 games to the Brewers’ 52. So raw stats can be awkward. But check this out. High leverage opponent plate appearances: Cubs 333 and Brewers 353. So 5 or 6 innings difference despite three less games. The Brewers have been really good, so not super wacky I guess. Medium leverage: Cubs 689, Brewers 732. Now you’re at maybe 10 innings difference despite three less games. The Cubs have faced almost 200 more plate appearances in low leverage situations than the Brewers. So it’s not my imagination.
Last thought. Those three games aren’t nothing either. This first half has been a gauntlet. As someone who blogs about every game, the cadence of the games is always front and center. This has felt like an unending line of games. That was a brutal combo with all of the pitching injuries and has surely exacerbated the Cub problems and them running out of gas. The 10-game losing streak is absolutely disconcerting, but I’m not ready to say that the ship has sailed on this Cub team yet.
Nothing like a win to walk me and surely a whole bunch of others back from the ledge a little.
Three Positives:
- Michael Conforto came off of the bench and hit a two-run, pinch-hit homer to help put this one on ice. He got to hang around and have a second plate appearance and drew a walk. You have to love a day that measures out to an 838 wRC+.
- This was Ian Happ’s night. A two-run single in the first and a three-run homer late to break a tie. He drives in five of the 10 runs on the night.
- Six Cubs in all had a night that registered as over 200 wRC+, including Kevin Alcántara, who walked in his only plate appearance. But this spot goes to Dansby Swanson, another beleaguered Cub vet. He had a single, double, walk, stolen base and two runs scored.
Game 56, May 27: Cubs 10, Pirates 4 (30-26)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Ian Happ (.256). 2-6, HR, 5 RBI, R
- Hero: Alex Bregman (.119). 2-6, 2B, R
- Sidekick: Michael Busch (.085). 1-3, 2 BB, HBP, RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Jameson Taillon (-.169). 5 IP, 21 BF, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, 4 K
- Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.113). 1-5, R, DP
- Kid: Moisés Ballesteros (-.045). 0-2, K
WPA Play of the Game: Brandon Lowe’s one-out, three-run, game-tying homer in the third inning. (.250)
Cubs Play of the Game: Alex Bregman doubled with a runner on first and no outs in the seventh inning, setting up Ian Happ’s heroics. (.167)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 55 Winner: Alex Bregman received 52 of 84 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch +21
- Nico Hoerner +12
- Alex Bregman +9.5
- Michael Conforto +9
- Shōta Imanaga +7
- Jameson Taillon/Phil Maton -9
- Matt Shaw -10
- Dansby Swanson -13
- Seiya Suzuki -27.5
Current Win Pace: 86.79 wins
Up Next: The fourth and final game of the series between these two teams. If you haven’t heard, it’s been a few years since the Pirates actually won a home series versus the Cubs. I’m reminded of a game last May 1. Colin Rea faced Paul Skenes in an afternoon game in Pittsburgh. The Pirates staked Skenes to two early runs. But Dansby Swanson, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki all took Skenes deep and Skenes ended up a loser as the Cubs won 8-3.
Rea comes in with a 4-3 mark and a 4.83 ERA in 54 innings. This will be his ninth start of the season. He hasn’t won since May 1. In four starts since then, he’s allowed 14 runs (13 earned) in 21.1 innings. Last time he started rough but ended up throwing seven innings and allowing just three runs. That was his second quality start (though he technically also had a quality relief behind an opener). Skenes is 6-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 60 innings. This is his 12th start of the year. He’s lost two straight, allowing nine earned runs in 10 innings against the Blue Jays and Phillies.
It’s a tough matchup, but you never know. Maybe the bats are sufficiently awakened to steal one against Skenes and the Pirates.
