Kentucky basketball bounced back with a 47-point win after a loss to Louisville, but that came against Eastern Illinois, a sub-300 team in KenPom. In a game where the Wildcats covered by double digits
(-35.5), the bad taste from the defeat at the hands of the Cardinals still remained, especially in light of Jaland Lowe’s latest injury, which could sideline him for the season.
Now, Kentucky has a chance to get its first marquee win of the season as it takes on the Michigan State Spartans in the Champions Classic in New York City on Tuesday.
Historically, Kentucky and Michigan State have played each other incredibly close, and provided some great games, including the 2004 game where Patrick Sparks sent the game into OT with a miraculous 3-pointer. And in 2019, Tyrese Maxey had his coming-out party to help the Cats take down the then-No. 1 Spartans.
Playing 10 games against each other all time, the average margin of victory is just 6.6 points, with half of the games decided by five points or less. Michigan State does have a 6-4 advantage, and the latest win in the series was beating Kentucky in the Champions Classic 86-77 in 2022.
Tom Izzo’s team is ranked in the top 20 and is 3-0 on the season. They beat a top-15 Arkansas team already but have struggled against San Jose St and Colgate before pulling away late. That said, they will be one of the most physical teams Kentucky plays this season, and it will be important to see how they respond, especially offensively.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Rebounding Battle
One staple of a Tom Izzo team is their ability to rebound, especially on the offensive boards, leading to extra possessions. On the season, the Spartans rank in the top 20 in rebounds per game and offensive rebounding percentage.
Mark Pope’s goal is to always limit opponents to 10 offensive rebounds or less. That may be tough to, but the less rebounds the better. Kentucky’s rebounding effort has been a team effort, led by Malachi Moreno so far this year.
The Cats have been a good rebounding team under Mark Pope, but they’ve given up too many offensive rebounds at times. They cannot do that with Michigan State, whose battles fare or those to aid their inefficient offense.
Interior Defense; Force Spartans to Shoot
Tom Izzo is a Hall of Fame coach, but like some other older coaches, he hasn’t exactly embraced modern basketball.
As a team, Michigan State currently ranks 294th in three-point attempt rate and 343rd in 3-point percentage. Individually, they have just two players shooting above 25% from three, one of whom plays less than 15 minutes per game. They shot just 14 3s in their win against Arkansas.
That leads to their interior scoring, where Michigan State has scored 57% of its points this season, with another 26% coming from the free-throw line. They get that through ball screens and dribble handoffs, creating mismatches.
Kentucky struggled against Louisville’s ball screens, and that has been a focus point in practice. Michigan State will provide an ample test of how much they have improved in a week.
Transition Defense
While Tom Izzo likes his team to get into his half-court sets, he first likes to try to attack in transition.
Mark Pope talked about how “uncharacteristically bad” Kentucky’s transition defense was against Louisville. Against Michigan State, they will need to quickly identify the “rim runner” and communicate through diagonal attacks.
Kentucky has the horses to run with the Spartans and win the transition battle, perhaps even enough to decide who wins this game, but the Cats will have to play a lot better in this regard than they did in Louisville to get the victory.
Players to Know
F Coen Carr 6’6, 225 lbs
- 11.7 PPG
- 5 RPG
- 3.3 APG
F Jaxon Kohler 6’9, 245 lbs
- 14.3 PPG
- 13.3 RPG (T-5th nationally)
- 42.4% FG
G Jeremy Fears Jr
- 11 PPG
- 9.3 APG (1st nationally)
- 37.5% 3P
Kentucky Basketball vs. Michigan State Spartans
- Time: 6:30 PM ET on November 18th
- Location: Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Announcers: Dan Shulman, Jay Bilas, and Kris Budden will call the action.
- Online Stream: SEC Network+ and the ESPN app.
- Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
- Replay: WatchESPN and the ESPN network (check local listings)
- Rosters: UK | MSU
- Stats to Know: UK | MSU
- KenPom: UK | MSU
- Team Sheet: UK | MSU
- Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds for this game, so please check back later for that. As for the metrics, ESPN is the friendliest to Kentucky, giving them a 78.2% chance to win. KenPom follows close behind at 73. BartTorvik is substantially lower, giving the Wildcats just a slight edge at 58%. EvanMiya has it at 62.5% in favor of the Cats.
- Predictions: Haslametrics has the Cats winning 81-72, KenPom is just slightly closer, going with an 80-73 win. BartTorvik has it as a one-possession game in favor of Kentucky, 76-74. EvanMiya went with a 77-73 UK win. I am taking Mark Pope’s team to make a statement in the Big Apple and come away with an 83-75 victory, Kentucky!
Send us your thoughts and predictions on the game down in the comments section!
