Good morning! After falling 15.5 games behind the (at the time) division leading Yankees at the start of play on June 25th, the Red Sox are now tied with New York in the loss column with 51 a piece. (The gap between them is still a game though because the Red Sox have two extra contests to play. In fact, one of them is tonight as the Yankees have the day off and the Red Sox play the White Sox in a series finale at Fenway.)
But for better or worse — and I have mixed emotions about this — the Yankees
are no longer leading the division. Because unlike the Yankees, who completely cratered once the Red Sox swept them in a four games series at Fenway, the Rays did the exact opposite after suffering the same fate.
Since July 19th, when the Red Sox completed a four game sweep of the Rays to move within six games of the division lead, little has changed in the division gap. That’s because Rays have gone 12-4 in their last 16 games, meaning the Sox have only picked up a measly half a game on them despite going 12-3 over the same span.
So here’s the question: Can the Red Sox catch the Rays and win the division?
Logic says no. The Red Sox are still missing Garrett Crochet, Roman Anthony, Curtis Mead, and Adley Rutschman, and despite the possibility of those guys coming back and helping the Sox in a potential postseason run, there’s little regular season runway for them to make a big difference in a division comeback given none of them have timetables for a return.
Then there’s also the issue of the upcoming Rays schedule being extraordinary soft. Tampa does not play a team with a record above .500 again until August 28th (so expect their hot streak to continue). On top of that, the Rays don’t come to Fenway again this year. So the only head-to-head matchup the Sox have left to make up ground is a three game set at the terrible Trop starting September 18th. (This is also a good time to mention that the Red Sox and Rays are 5-5 against each other this year, so taking that series is a must not just to potentially pick up ground, but because it will also determine who has the tie breaker. Remember, there’s no Game 163 anymore.)
Lastly, the Sox are probably going to run into some rotation problems soon. Patrick Sandoval is skating on very thin ice with his walk rate, and both Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett are set to blow by career highs in innings pitched this year. In other words, the engine that’s propelled this run this incredible comeback to this point might partially run out of gas soon.
So yeah, unfortunately logic says the Rays are going to be difficult to catch. But then again, has logic mattered with this team in the last six weeks? They’re 30-5 in their last 35 games, have won nine straight series, have an active seven game winning streak right now, and have laughed in the face of every other obstacle placed in their path so far this summer.
So what do you think? Is the division attainable? Talk about this and whatever else you’d like, and as always, be good to one another.
