The Nittany Lions will attempt to bounce back following one of the worst losses in program history.
Penn State (3-2, 0-2) vs. Northwestern (3-2, 1-1)
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m., Beaver Stadium, State College, PA
The Betting Line: Penn State -22.5
TV: FS1, 3:30 p,m., Connor Onion (play-by-play), Mark Helfrich (analyst)
Weather: A partly cloudy day with a high of 63, cooling to the 50s in the evening with a small chance of rain.
COACHES:
James Franklin:
PENN STATE RECORD: 104-44, 11th Year
OVERALL RECORD: 128-59, 14th
Year
VS NORTHWESTERN: 3-3
David Braun:
NORTHWESTERN RECORD: 15-15, 3rd Year
OVERALL RECORD: Same
VS. PENN STATE: 0-1
FUN FACTS
Kaytron Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in all five games this season, including two on just eight caries against UCLA…Amare Campbell has consecutive games with double-digit tackles, recording 15 against Oregon and 10 versus UCLA…Penn State will be hosting its 105th Homecoming game…the Nittany Lions are 75-24-5 all-time in Homecoming contests…Penn State leads the all-time series against Northwestern 16-5, and are 9-2 against the Wildcats at home
NORTHWESTERN OFFENSE VS. PENN STATE DEFENSE
Penn State’s usually reliable defense failed to show up against UCLA, allowing 42 points to a team that struggled to move the ball in its first four games. We’ll soon learn if this was a mere blip caused by a letdown, or a more troubling sign of what is ahead.
There seemed to be two main problems that caused the inability to stop the Bruins. A general lack of effort from the defense caused players to be out of place and late to the ball throughout the afternoon, as well as an alarming number of missed tackles. The defense also missed linebacker Tony Rojas in the first game following an injury that is likely to keep him out for the remainder of the year. The defense’s play without Rojas demonstrated the questions about linebacker depth that lingered heading into the season.
Northwestern has an experienced quarterback in Preston Stone, who joined the Wildcats this year after four seasons at SMU. He is completing 61.5 percent of passes, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. Stone got off to a rocky start with four interceptions against Tulane in week one, but has thrown just two in the last four games (both against Oregon). Stone doesn’t have the running ability of Nico Imalava, who went off for 128 yards and three touchdowns on the ground against the Nittany Lions on Saturday, but can certainly make plays with his legs if left unattended.
Stone’s favorite target is Griffin Wilde, a 6’2” receiver who transferred from South Dakota State. Wilde has 25 catches on the season, which is 14 more than the Wildcats’ second-leading receiver, sophomore Drew Wagner. Stone also likes to get the running backs and tight ends involved in the offense, making things more difficult on the defense by spreading the ball out.
Caleb Komolafe has become the primary back in his third season at Northwestern, picking up 344 rushing yards and four touchdowns while averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Joseph Himon does share some carries, and is a more typical third-down back who is used out of the backfield.
PENN STATE OFFENSE VS. NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE
It was the same story for the Penn State offense for the second consecutive game — too little, too late and the inability to make a play when it was needed the most.
The Nittany Lions struggles in the run game continued against UCLA, despite the Bruins previous inability to stop the run. The trend may continue as the Wildcats are yielding 146.6 rushing yards per game — not spectacular, but good enough to keep Penn State’s ground game in check. The Nittany Lions also continue to give more carries to Nicholas Singleton, despite being outperformed by Kaytron Allen through five weeks. Perhaps this will change on Saturday, although the coaching staff seem determined to continue with Singleton as the primary back.
Drew Allar actually had one of his better games against UCLA, especially when you include his team-leading 78 rush yards as he attempted to will the team to victory. There still seems to be inconsistency with the wide receiver group, with the latest development of Devonte Ross having no catches the week after seemingly stepping up with a big finish against Oregon. Ross, Trebor Pena and Kyron Hudson have performed well at times, but struggle to become a consistent presence week after week. Tight end Luke Reynolds continues to be a heavy target, and is tied with Hudson and Pena with a team-leading 18 receptions. He will look to recover after a crucial fumble that gave the ball away on the first possession of the second half.
Northwestern has defended the pass very well this season, allowing just 165 yards through the air per game, good for 20th in the nation. They are also allowing just 17 points per game, placing them 26th nationally.
Linebacker Mac Uihlein is a well-experienced playmaker, and is second on the team in tackles with two interceptions and a forced fumble. Defensive end Aidan Hubbard can cause problems off the edge, and leads the team in sacks, TFLs and quarterback hurries. Cornerback Fred Davis II has done well against the opponents top receiver, and leads the team in pass breakups while also being a physical presence against the run.
Overall, the Wildcats defense is a physical and disciplined unit that does not give up easy yards.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Jack Olson is three-for-four since taking over kicking duties, with a career-long 47 yarder. Punter Luke Akers has a career-high 46.6 yard average, the highest of his six-year career.
Penn State kicker Ryan Barker continues to be Mr. Automatic, hitting 10-of-11 field goals with the only missed attempt being the result of a block. Punter Gabriel Nwosu has also been tremendous in his first year as starter, averaging 46.6 yards per punt and placing over half of his attempts inside the 20.
PREDICTION
Penn State-27, Northwestern-20
How exactly do you predict an outcome for a team that just proved to be completely unpredictble? With little confidence, that’s how. It seems like every time Penn State has taken the field, they’ve left with more questions than answers. So here we are wondering if they can escape Homecoming with a victory as a three-touchdown favorite.
You have to wonder about the morale of the team too. Will they come out fired up, doing everything they can to fight their way back into the playoff picture? Or do they realize the unlikely road ahead and start looking ahead to the next phase of their life after leaving Happy Valley? You know Northwestern will come in with their heads on straight, coming off a two-game win streak and smelling blood in the water with the chance to upset a “name” program that was receiving #1 votes in the AP Poll just a couple weeks ago.
I am legitimately concerned about the way these teams match-up. Penn State’s offensive line has struggled against poor defenses, and Northwestern’s is fairly stingy. There’s also concern that teams now have a blueprint on how to move the ball against the Penn State defense, especially with Rojas out of the lineup.
I’ll go ahead with a belief that the defense can get things together after one terrible letdown game, and the offense can still do enough to get past a team like Northwestern, especially at home. Just don’t ask me to say it with much confidence.
