We’re at least a quarter of the way through the college football season for all of the teams in the Big Ten. While the Michigan Wolverines were on a bye this week, the Oregon Ducks beat the Penn State Nittany Lions in Happy Valley in overtime. It was a season-defining game for both teams as Penn State was once the favorite to win the Big Ten and a top contender for winning the national championship.
As we have a bit of data now and teams have started to take shape against quality competition (for
the most part), let’s evaluate each Big Ten program’s shot at making the playoffs at season’s end.
It’s not happening
- No 18 – UCLA Bruins
- No. 17 – Purdue Boilermakers
UCLA is 0-4 and fired its head coach. Purdue lost to Notre Dame by 24 and still has three Top-25 teams on the schedule. Neither of these teams will be sniffing the CFP.
Less than 1% chance
- No. 16 – Rutgers Scarlet Knights
- No. 15 – Northwestern Wildcats
- No. 14 – Wisconsin Badgers
- No. 13 – Minnesota Golden Gophers
All four of these teams have a bad loss and have a chance of joining the group above them in the next week. Rutgers doesn’t have a conference win, Northwestern’s lone Big Ten win was by three points vs UCLA, Wisconsin lost as a 14-point favorite at home against Maryland, and Minnesota’s only Power 4 win was a three-point victory over Rutgers.
The only reason none of these are at 0 percent is because they all have at least one of Penn State, Oregon or Ohio State remaining on the schedule. If they won out, they’d each have a strong case. I just don’t see that happening for any of these teams.
Still extremely unlikely
- No. 12 – Michigan State Spartans
- No. 11 – Maryland Terrapins
- No. 10 – Iowa Hawkeyes
Both Michigan State and Maryland are off to good starts record-wise, but it feels like fools gold. The Spartans’ best win is against a 1-3 Boston College team by two points. Meanwhile, the Terps are undefeated, but those four wins are against FAU, Northern Illinois, Towson and Wisconsin. True freshman quarterback Malik Washington has impressed, but they have a lot to prove still with their toughest competition still ahead of them.
I place Iowa slightly higher, even with two losses, because of the schedule. The Hawkeyes lost by less than a touchdown to both Iowa State and Indiana, two ranked opponents, and they have both Penn State and Oregon at Kinnick Stadium. If they found a way to win out, or even be a 9-3 team, they could be in a good spot because of their strength of schedule.
Must rebound after a Top-25 loss
- No. 9 – Washington Huskies
- No. 8 – USC Trojans
- No. 7 – Nebraska Cornhuskers
- No. 6 – Illinois Fighting Illini
- No. 5 – Michigan Wolverines
- No. 4 – Penn State Nittany Lions
All these teams play multiple of the others in this category and have a weaker Big Ten schedule. These are the five that are most likely to win out or be in the conversation as a two-loss team for the Big Ten. I’d bet one from this group makes the playoff.
Washington is coming off a loss to the Buckeyes, but Demond Williams and his team have looked really good against just about everyone else. If they win two of three against Michigan, Illinois and Oregon, they’ll have a great shot.
USC lost by two at Illinois, but unlike Washington, it needs to rebound immediately. The Trojans have Michigan coming to town, and then go to Notre Dame and Nebraska before facing Oregon in late November. They need to be above .500 in those games to have a shot.
Of all of the teams here, Nebraska has the easiest remaining schedule. It gets USC at home and then goes to Penn State for the chance to earn a signature win. The Dylan Raiola effect will also have the committee in love with this team even if they only have two losses.
Then comes Illinois; Ohio State comes to town in two weeks, but other than that, the Fighting Illini have an extremely soft schedule. They play five of the bottom seven I have on this list in their final seven games.
Michigan is just ahead of Illinois because of that 53-point loss to Indiana. That will be really difficult to overcome as a potential two-loss candidate. But if the Wolverines finished with two losses to teams (Oklahoma and Ohio State) ranked inside the Top-5, they’d have a better argument, especially if they keep the game against Ohio State close. Michigan’s path is more difficult — at USC this week, then vs Washington, an eventual road trip to Maryland and then ending the season with The Game.
Last in this tier is Penn State. With everyone they had coming back, the loss last weekend hurts big time for the Nittany Lions. They had an extremely weak non-conference schedule and go through a brutal stretch in a couple weeks at Iowa, at Ohio State and then home against Indiana. For the team that opted to stay another year, that stretch will be how this era was defined for them.
The favorites
- No. 3 – Indiana Hoosiers
- No. 2 – Ohio State Buckeyes
- No. 1 – Oregon Ducks
Through the first third of the season, these three teams are the Big Ten squads with signature wins and that are undefeated.
Curt Cignetti has already proved the Hoosiers’ 2024 season was no fluke. Blowing out Illinois and then going to Iowa and earning a win showcased that Indiana is here to stay.
Although the Buckeyes are the No. 1 team in the country, I think they have the second-best odds of making the postseason in the Big Ten. With their win over Texas earlier this season, they already have a resume builder. However, they still go to Illinois, face Penn State, and then wrap the year at the Big House. There is a chance that final game of the season is for a playoff spot.
The easiest path for any Big Ten team is the Oregon Ducks. Winning at Penn State was crucial, as they only have one other game on the schedule against a Top 25 opponent, and that is this upcoming weekend when they host Indiana. Their final six games are all against currently unranked teams. The only teams that could get there are home against USC or at Washington, the final two matchups of the season.
