I’m getting closer and closer to nailing these predictions; soon one will hit. If the Detroit Lions’ secondary had snagged both interceptions that they should have had last week against the Baltimore Ravens,
I would’ve hit my prediction from last week. It was a tall ask, but the fact that it almost happened makes me believe this week will hit.
This week, the Lions play the Cleveland Browns, arguably the best defense they have seen so far this season. The best part about the Browns’ defense is the strength of the Lions’ offense, stopping the run. While the Browns have had a strong start, they haven’t seen a running back like the Lions’ studs in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. In their Week 4 showdown, I think the Lions get the best of the Browns’ run defense and continue their success from last week.
Bold prediction of the week: Detroit rushes for 200 yards
Despite the Lions having a 15-2 record last season, the game with the most rushing yards didn’t happen until their final game of the season against the Washington Commanders, where they ran for 201 yards. They got to that mark quicker this season, rushing for 224 yards in Week 3 against the Ravens. What helped inflate the total yards was the monster 72-yard run by Montgomery, but eliminate that, and the Lions still ran for over 150 yards.
This will be a tough ask for Detroit as Cleveland focuses on stopping the ground game for its opponents. So far, Cleveland has allowed the fewest rushing yards (172), the lowest yards per carry (2.3), and their longest rush allowed was 11 yards. PFF loves the Browns’ run defense too, giving them the highest run defense grade in the NFL (87.4). Overall, the Browns allow an average of 57.3 rushing yards per game, forcing teams to beat them through the air.
In their victory over the Green Bay Packers, the Browns had their “worst” run defense performance so far, allowing 81 yards and 2.6 yards per carry. Packers running back Josh Jacobs had 16 carries for 30 yards as he couldn’t find any success. Back in Week 2 against the Ravens, the Browns held Ravens running back Derrick Henry to just 23 yards on 11 carries. This was coming off his monster performance in the opening matchup against the Buffalo Bills, and Cleveland wasn’t intimidated by him. The running back that had the best success against the Browns so far was Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown, who only got 43 yards on 21 carries, but he has been the only running back to score so far.
When looking at those three opponents overall on the ground, they don’t have an impressive resume.
Cincinnati Bengals
- PFF Run Blocking Grade – 37.8 (32nd)
- PFF Rush Grade – 53.2 (32nd)
- Rushing yards – 147 (32nd)
- Yards per carry 2.4 (32nd)
Baltimore Ravens
- PFF Run Blocking Grade – 65.1 (9th)
- PFF Rush Grade – 60.1 (30th)
- Rushing yards – 368 (12th)
- Yards per carry 5.3 (3rd)
Green Bay Packers
- PFF Run Blocking Grade – 49.1 (29th)
- PFF Rush Grade – 65.5 (22nd)
- Rushing yards – 294 (20th)
- Yards per carry 3.4 (27th)
Those stats don’t impress me at all. Sure, the Ravens have two top-10 spots, but some of that could be attributed to quarterback Lamar Jackson instead of the running backs. Cleveland dominating teams like this should happen, as these teams, especially Cincinnati, have had problems moving the ball on the ground. Well, how does Detroit fare compared to the Browns’ opponents so far?
Detroit Lions
- PFF Run Blocking Grade – 71.2 (3rd)
- PFF Rush Grade – 75.6 (6th)
- Rushing yards – 447 (4th)
- Yards per carry 5 (7th)
Oh.
Detroit is in the top 10 in every category, and the best part is they don’t just rely on one running back like the other teams; they have a one-two punch in Gibbs and Montgomery. What also separates Detroit from the others is its talent on the offensive line. According to PFF, Lions right tackle Penei Sewell has the highest run blocking grade (94.5) in the NFL, and with Browns EDGE Myles Garrett most likely going up against Lions left tackle Taylor Decker, Detroit can run the ball away from him and behind their best lineman.
Overall, I see the Lions having their day against the Browns with both of their running backs. The offensive line for Detroit has rebounded well after their Week 1 blunder and seems to be back on track to be one of the best in the NFL, even with two new starters. This game is also at home for Detroit, which gives the offense a slight advantage with a quiet field. They can feed off the energy from the crowd when plays work in their favor. Back-to-back 200-yard games for the rushing offense? Sign. Me. Up.
