Happy Friday, everyone. Vanderbilt rolls into town tomorrow, and one very special guest will be there.
Win this one for The Monstar, men.
Previews and predictions:
While sharing his belief that the point
spread (Alabama by 10 1/2) for Saturday’s game was a bit high, Klatt raved about Alabama’s home record and noted that the Tide have won 35 of their last 36 home games dating back to the 2015 season. Because of that, he thinks Alabama will beat Vanderbilt.
“I like Bama to win, but I like Diego Pavia and this Vanderbilt team to stay close in this game… I’m going to take the hook and take that half-point and say 31-21, Bama wins. They beat Vandy, but not by more than 10 1/2.”
This should be a back-and-forth fight, Vanderbilt will show that it really does have the talent and ability to be a major player in the SEC, and then …
Bama will go Bama.
As strong as Vandy has been, it has yet to face a passing game like what Alabama is bringing. Both defenses will struggle to get off the field, but the Tide will be a bit more explosive, and a jacked up defense will swarm all over Pavia in a few key situations in the second half.
Alabama 37, Vanderbilt 20
Records: Vanderbilt 5-0, 1-0 vs. AP teams; Alabama 3-1, 1-0 vs. AP teams
Opening Line: Alabama -11.5, O/U 56.5
Money line: Vanderbilt (+320); Alabama (-425)
Over/Under: 55.5 (O -115, U -105)FPI Projection Alabama by 6.8 points with a 74% probability to win game outright
Hummer (Vanderbilt +13.5): Vanderbilt is a product with which I know exactly what to expect. The Commodores are going to control the clock, efficiently move the football and avoid defensive mistakes that lead to explosive plays. Alabama? The Crimson Tide are more talented, but we’ve seen some very uneven performances from them this year. This game comes down to two areas to me: 1. How does a just OK Vanderbilt offensive line hold up? 2. Can Alabama establish any sort of run game and avoid making Ty Simpson carry the offense? I do think Alabama gets revenge at home. But Vanderbilt is going to make it difficult. — Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 27.
Crawford (Vanderbilt +13.5): Vanderbilt’s not going to beat Alabama for a second straight year, but this line feels disrespectful to the Commodores. Knowing what Diego Pavia was able to do against this defense last season should worry Alabama fans, especially since he’s red-hot again through five games. Vanderbilt’s been beating the opposition by more than four touchdowns per game this fall, but that changes this weekend. — Alabama 38, Vanderbilt 27.
Multiple things can be true. Vanderbilt has dominated its 2025 schedule, a resume that already includes a top-25 road win against an SEC opponent. Diego Pavia is one of the most explosive and talked-about quarterbacks in the SEC who torched Alabama nearly alone in 2024. But Pavia and the Commodores are not facing the same Alabama team from a year ago. Ty Simpson is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in college football, running the Ryan Grubb offense to a tee. And other than a handful of explosive plays, Alabama’s defense was able to stop Georgia’s run game and put pressure on the Bulldogs’ backfield. Alabama wants revenge. Expect the Crimson Tide to get it Saturday. No. 11 Alabama 35, No. 17 Vanderbilt 24
Vanderbilt has surged to 5-0, and QB Diego Pavia has led a Commodores offense that is currently third in my adjusted yards per play. TE Eli Stowers is an NFL talent that has averaged an impressive 3.14 yards per route run.
Alabama struggled out of the gate with a loss to Florida State but scored an impressive road win at Georgia last week. QB Ty Simpson threw for 7.26 yards per pass attempt against Georgia (6.40 college football average).
It is nice to think that Pavia and Vanderbilt might pull off an upset over Alabama for the second straight year. However, Alabama has a huge talent edge, as players like OT Kadyn Proctor, edge LT Overton and CB Domani Jackson will get picked in the draft higher than Stowers.
My numbers say another upset is unlikely as I have Alabama by 11.6 points. In addition, Vanderbilt’s offense is due for regression.
Lean: Alabama -10.5
Exactly nobody seems to be picking Vanderbilt to win, and that’s a bit concerning. Alabama’s players are saying all of the right things:
“The mentality of the locker room this week is … we remember,” Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson said. “We remember what happened last year. What are we gonna do about it? Even though it’s not about last year, it’s about us, we’re not gonna make the same mistake again.”
Simpson didn’t even play in the game, but as a player on the roster, he still felt the sting. Alabama, entering the game as the No. 1 team in the nation fresh off a win over Georgia in 2024, dropped a dud of a game to unranked Vanderbilt.
“It’s hard to just throw that one out,” linebacker Deontae Lawson said. “It’s definitely on the back of your mind. But you’ve got to think. We’ve got 30 some new guys on our team. This is a whole new team. Our mindset is completely different than what it was last year. We’re looking forward to this year. Started practice and I felt like we had a great start today and a great start to the weekend.”
It’s great that they are focused on their own mindset. That’s as it should be, but this Vanderbilt team is legitimately good. The ‘Dores show up solidly in the top 20 in most every advanced metric, largely because they walked into Columbia and blew South Carolina out. They have by far the most experienced roster in the SEC, as a full 65% of their roster are upperclassmen, and a third of those are fifth year or more.
It’s hard to believe that the spread on this game would be two touchdowns if not for Vanderbilt’s historical standing in the league. This game is going to be a battle, and Alabama’s discipline on defense will tell the tale. If they fail to set edges as they did against Georgia, it can go either way. Ty Simpson is going to have to continue to play like a Heisman candidate if Alabama is to get any separation in this one.
I don’t feel great about it, but I’ll call it Alabama 38, Vanderbilt 27. Of course, that is merely my opinion. Vote and give us yours in the comments.
Last, Mac Jones is establishing himself as a starting QB in the NFL. Check out what he did last night.
It was a gutsy performance by San Francisco as a whole, but in particular from Jones who appeared to be bothered by a knee injury and hobbled to the sidelines on numerous occasions after getting hit by Los Angeles defenders.
But despite being without most of the 49ers’ receiving core – Brandon Aiyuk, Rick Pearsall, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle all missed Thursday’s game with injuries – Jones was able to will San Francisco to an impressive road victory to lift them to 4-1 on the year and earn the praise of his head coach afterwards.
“He played his ass off, man,” 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said of Jones afterwards. “He was unbelievable in the first half. He got banged up there in the second half and battled through it.
“He protected the ball and, going against that defense and throwing the ball that many times, not having a turnover and protecting the ball like he did, I can’t say enough good things about Mac.”
All he did was complete 33 of 49 passes for 342 yards and two touchdowns with a MASH unit of former castoffs at receiver, outdueling Matt Stafford who had his full complement of weapons including Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, arguably the best WR duo in the NFL. The Rams were supposed to win that game in a walk, but The Joker wasn’t having it. With the trade deadline approaching and some teams in need of a QB, it will be interesting to see if the 49ers get offers for Mac that they can’t refuse.
That’s about it for today. Have a great weekend.
Roll Tide.
