The Dallas Mavericks hold a 2-3 record after five games, good for the 12 Seed in the Western Conference as of Thursday morning. Although it is a small sample size, there is enough behind the numbers to
begin identifying trends.
There was no question coming into the season that head coach Jason Kidd would have some creative decisions to make regarding his lineups. He ultimately elected to go without a traditional point guard in the starting rotation, opting instead for a squad of Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively. The immediate question was how the team would fare without a true point guard leading the way, and the results have been somewhat mixed. In the opener, the team looked like a turnover machine of total strangers. Since then, they’ve taken better care of the ball and picked up their pace and passing.
The other glaring question was where the shooting would come from. With the starting lineup set, there was little outside shooting aside from Thompson, with playing time for players off the bench somewhat uncertain. Aside from a few individual hot stretches, the overall shooting has left something to be desired, with last night’s win over the Pacers putting a dark shade on ugly.
With five games in the books, the stats are beginning to reveal two realities that speak to these questions.
The Case for a Point guard
D’Angelo Russell has been a mixed bag so far. He didn’t break the 20 minute mark until the third game (playing as few as 8:30 in the loss to the Wizards), and is shooting only 32.7%. Despite this, there is a case to be made for having a true point guard on the floor to start. In fact, the Mavs have been their most successful in recent years when they have two capable ball handlers on the court at the same time. Despite some of his personal struggles, having someone who can orchestrate and pass allows other players to get to their spots and play at their best, which can result in a better overall outcome. Case in point is the team plus/minus with and without Russell. These numbers are the difference between maybe being 4-1 or even 5-0 at this point, rather than sitting in 12th place.
The Case for Shooting
The Mavs are stacked at the forward and center positions (notwithstanding health), so much so that they are starting one of them at point guard. The only obvious shooter in the starting rotation is Klay Thompson. The only problem is that he can’t find his groove. Impossibly, Thompson is shooting worse than Russell at 31.3% overall and just nearly 26% from three. Meanwhile, Max Christie is shooting a blazing 51.9% from three, good for fourth on the league leaders list (minimum 25 attempts).
The Case for Change
The solution isn’t quite as simple as starting Russell and Christie, as that would raise questions of whom between Washington, Davis and Lively moves to the bench (and it certainly won’t be Davis). Still, if both can’t happen, one of the two should. Russell getting more minutes than his current 21 per game would at least solve some of the problem, even if he wasn’t starting. Christie is a different story though. If Thompson can’t find his form quickly, the Mavs are going to have to give serious consideration to Christie starting in his place. It would give the Mavs more youth and athleticism, and much better comparative shooting at this point. It may even serve Thompson well to come in and microwave score in the second unit.
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