Last week, we took a look at what the Michigan Wolverines should want from Bryce Underwood in Week 1, recognizing that the program cornerstone enters this season with the divisive cocktail of talent, expectations, and opportunity. Just as Western Michigan provides an early benchmark for the young quarterback, I think that game might show us more than one might think about how the season will fare for the whole team as well.
This decade, Michigan has used the season opener as a way to ease into the year.
The 2010s featured Week 1 trips to Utah and Notre Dame, as well as neutral-site contests against Alabama and Florida, but that does not appear to be the current strategy. A visit to Germany for this game was on the cards temporarily, but that was still going to be relatively tame in terms of competition.
That means there are plenty of recent data points for extrapolating how a buy game might relate to the rest of the season. With last year (hopefully) not too relevant for Underwood in 2026 and a whole new coaching staff across essentially the entire team, there will be plenty of confidently made assessments immediately after this opener.
Good, great, not so good
Back in the 2021 opener, the Broncos did score on their first possession, but Michigan put up 27 in the first half and scored early and often coming out of the disaster of 2020, ultimately winning 47-14. Western ended the year 76th in SP+, which is pretty solid for a buy game opponent. Meanwhile, Jim Harbaugh would go on to win the program’s first Big Ten championship in years.
In 2022, the Wolverines hosted a pretty bad Colorado State team (final SP+: 126th). Cade McNamara got to run the offense first under Harbaugh’s creative plan, and he looked lackluster for much of the first half despite a 23-0 lead. Even though it was not his “turn,” J.J. McCarthy ended up getting a healthy amount of playing time, rushing for a score and leading two more touchdown drives. The 51-7 final scoreline was as expected, and the Wolverines would repeat as Big Ten champions after an undefeated regular season.
East Carolina was also outside the top 100, finishing 111th in the final 2023 SP+ rankings. There was no quarterback battle this time around, as a surgical McCarthy threw for three touchdowns and 280 yards to begin the legendary year. Obviously, the 2023 season went pretty well for Michigan, and this game was doubly predictive, showing no issue even without Harbaugh available.
Here is when things get more interesting. The Wolverines struggled to put away Fresno State in 2024, with Davis Warren throwing for just 4.7 Y/A. Six first-half drives yielded only 10 points, and a Bulldogs’ touchdown with 10 minutes remaining made it an uncomfortable 16-10 contest. Warren would thankfully respond with his own touchdown drive, and Will Johnson iced it with an 86-yard pick six (against Mikey Keene lol), but the fact this game was close makes a ton of sense. For reference, Fresno ended 85th in SP+.
Finally, we get to 2025. This was slightly less stressful than the year before, and New Mexico did finish 73rd in SP+, but it was far from a clean opener. Michigan scored on its first two possessions but led just 17-10 late in the first half before a two-minute drill put the home side back up 14. However, the fourth quarter started with the Wolverines up only 10, and while the final score of 34-17 was passable, it did not calm all of the concerns heading into the year.
Mountains and molehills
The takeaway seems obvious in hindsight, but I think it still must be said: how Michigan performs in the opener says a lot about how the season might go, even as a big favorite. 2021-23 were “take care of business type” games, and in fact, the other buy games in those seasons essentially went exactly the same. The last two seasons have been far from that, with arguably only last year’s win over Central Michigan ending up that clean.
Though this is far from groundbreaking, it is worth calling out. Around this time of year is when comments come out saying things like “it is only Week 1” or “take it one game at a time” or “they are just figuring out the new system.” None of these platitudes are necessarily false, but I do think they diminish the value that we actually can take away from the opening game.
If Michigan makes a few mistakes, it does not mean the season is doomed; I mean, even Underwood has a little room here, despite the bar I set for him last week. But if there is any point in the second half where the outcome even starts to feel remotely in doubt, history says that might mean rockier seas are ahead. So while ending the week 1-0 is of course what really counts, how the game plays out might tell you more than you realize.
