Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, October 1 at 9:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: H.A. Chapman Stadium — Tulsa, OK
- Spread: Tulsa (-1.5)
- Over/under: 57.5
- All-time series: Tulsa leads, 17-9
- Last meeting: North Texas 52, Tulsa 20 — September 28, 2024
- Current streak: North Texas, 3 (2013-24)
Setting the scene
North Texas and Tulsa weren’t exactly popular preseason contenders in the American Conference, but these two teams arguably hold the league’s most impressive non-conference results. Tulsa opened the season with a stunning 24-10 upset of Oklahoma State, while North Texas decimated UNLV 44-6 in Week 2.
Both teams have played significantly better at home this year, and Tulsa gets the homefield advantage in this Thursday night duel. The Golden Hurricane already defeated a good portion of the 2025 North
Texas roster and staff when they upset Oklahoma State in early September. Now, Tre Lamb and Co. look to take care of business against the 2026 iteration of North Texas which has reloaded very well under Neal Brown.
North Texas Mean Green outlook
North Texas (2-2, 0-0 American) reverted to .500 last Saturday with a seamless 63-14 victory over FCS Houston Christian. The Mean Green were home to the nation’s No. 1 offense last season, and the offense remains a juggernaut under first-year head coach Neal Brown. Despite losing every starter, North Texas ranks ninth nationally in yards per game (516) and 25th in points per game (39.5).
The most important thing Brown and his staff did was turn Tayven Jackson into one of the American’s top quarterbacks. The former Indiana and UCF starter has unlocked a different version of himself in Denton, currently ranking 12th nationally in passing yards per game (297), and doing it efficiently, with a 74.2 completion rate — the fourth best mark among quarterbacks with at least 120 attempts.
Jackson’s pocket presence has also improved, and he’s taking far fewer sacks than he did in Bloomington and Orlando, only succumbing to two despite 128 passing attempts. 56 of those attempts came in the Week 3 game at Texas State where he posted a career-high 492 yards, and he has a plethora of receivers he can rely to produce such numbers. Justin Stevenson and Corri Milliner — ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, in American receiving yards — have been the premier options, but Josiah Martin, tight end Max Reese, and running back Jahiem White are also significant contributors in the nation’s seventh-most productive aerial attack.
White is third in the American with 363 rushing yards. The former West Virginia transfer, who followed Brown from Morgantown to Denton, has complemented this passing-oriented offense well. The Mean Green are 2-0 when he rushes for over 120 yards, and he’s coming off a complete domination where he posted 133 yards and four touchdowns against Houston Christian — on only 11 attempts.
North Texas’ offense is lethal, as usual, and that has been evident since Week 1 when it outgained reigning national champion in Indiana. However, the defense has shown extreme volatility thus far, ranging from holding UNLV to six points to surrendering 49 at Texas State.
The defense has thrived in Denton but hasn’t traveled well thus far, giving up 10 points per game at home and 50.5 on the road, albeit a limited sample size. North Texas looked like an elite run defense when limiting UNLV to 98 yards on a 2.5 average in Week 2, but exactly seven days later, Texas State posted 337 yards on a 6.9 average on the same unit.
Stopping the run will be most essential against Tulsa. Some of the key names in the Mean Green’s transfer laden front include defensive end David Onuoha — the star of the UNLV game — and outside linebacker Zakye Barker, a former all-conference selection at East Carolina who currently ranks second on the team in tackles.
Even though Tulsa has struggled to score this season, the Golden Hurricane have pieced together several explosive plays. North Texas must do a better job at limiting those, as only five teams have surrendered more 40-yard gains than the Mean Green this season. CJ Coombes will be among those on the last line of defense, and this will be a homecoming for him. The free safety, who currently leads North Texas in tackles, played four games as a true freshman at Tulsa in 2023.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane outlook
Tulsa (3-1, 0-0 American) was one of the final two undefeated teams in the American, but the Golden Hurricane’s bid for a perfect non-conference play ended quickly at Arkansas last Saturday, falling 34-6 to Ryan Silverfield and the Razorbacks. Still, it was a productive non-conference showing for second-year head coach Tre Lamb, headlined by a win over a currently-ranked Oklahoma State squad.
However, non-conference play was never the issue for Tulsa, which also fared 3-1 last season. The Golden Hurricane, in contrast, struggled mightily against their American peers. Tulsa finished 1-7 in conference play with a minus-114 point differential — a 1-point last-minute win over Army away from going winless. But this year, the Golden Hurricane benefit from improved continuity, setting the stage for a better showing in their American slate.
Tulsa returns Baylor Hayes this weekend. The second-year starting quarterback missed the previous two games with a knee sprain suffered in Week 2 at Sam Houston. He warmed up against Arkansas last Saturday but refrained from playing a snap. Instead, Dexter Williams II played the entirety of the contest. In two games, including the Oklahoma State upset, Hayes is 33-of-53 with 353 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
With Hayes or without Hayes, Tulsa hasn’t managed more than 24 points in three games against FBS competition this year, and the Golden Hurricane hope their starting quarterback’s return can provide a spark the offense desperately needs. The offense is more reliant on the run, and the duo of Damari Alston and Trequan Jones has been effective at times this season.
Alston leads the team with 213 rushing yards and four touchdowns, while Jones adds 196 and two, respectively. Tulsa’s greatest issue against Arkansas was the inability to get either going. The running backs combined for 15 carries in Fayetteville, and not a single carry accrued more than six yards. But North Texas’ run defense has been susceptible to allowing explosives this year, which could help reinvigorate Alston and Jones.
Other key players on offense include wide receivers Jimmy Calloway and Oran Singleton. The transfers rank first and second in the team in receiving, and their production should increase with Hayes back in the lineup.
Tulsa is 100th nationally in scoring offense at 23.8 points per game. However, the Golden Hurricane are 3-1 primarily due to the defense’s dominance. They rank 24th in the FBS in scoring defense, allowing just 15.3 points per game. Highlights of this defense include stifling Oklahoma State (46.3 points per game against non-Tulsa opponents) to 10 points in Week 1 and producing its first shutout since 2002 in Week 3.
The Golden Hurricane held Arkansas in check in the run game last week, but they struggled to contain Razorbacks star receiver Chris Marshall, who totaled 195 yards on nine catches. But the defensive backfield has been sound in other matchups. Dax Collins and Tyson Williams have been among the standouts of the unit with three pass breakups apiece.
Elsewhere on the defense, Thomas Graham and Chris Thompson Jr. have been on an all-conference pace. Graham is the current leader for sacks in the American with 4.0, while Thompson’s 35 tackles rank first on the Golden Hurricane.
Prediction
North Texas and Tulsa have been two of the better stories in the American so far, but they are extremely different teams. The Mean Green are built through an explosive offense, and it’s pick your poison. Tayven Jackson can take over the passing game, while Jahiem White can damage run defenses.
Tulsa’s defense has proven capable of countering elite offenses, including an Oklahoma State unit headlined by North Texas’ 2025 stars. But the Golden Hurricane showed some vulernability in coverage last week against Arkansas, and North Texas can take advantage there.
The Mean Green will move the ball. That’s been the one consistent feature in outings against Indiana, UNLV, and Texas State. Tulsa’s offense has yet to show the ability to compete with North Texas in a track meet style game. If the Golden Hurricane can make this a low-scoring bout, that’s their best chance, but if this game gets into mid-20s territory, that’s to North Texas’ benefit.
Prediction: North Texas 35, Tulsa 16
