Suddenly, there is a lot of smoke surrounding the Phillies and Japanese Triple Crown winner Teruaki Sato.
Numerous sources are linking the 27-year-old third baseman/outfielder to Philadelphia, a pretty incredible thing when you consider the Phils’ historical inability to have any impact in the Japanese market. Still, when NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury is being this vociferous in his belief that the Phillies are a legitimate option, one must take it seriously.
“Tonight, Wednesday, I’m starting to hear more buzz about the Japanese outfielder, Sato…
…They’re trying to establish themselves in the Japanese market, and I’m getting the feel that… I’m hearing credible buzz… …that they’re on him pretty good. And this guy’s gonna sign pretty soon because he was posted on the 1st [of November], he’s got 45 days so he is likely to sign before the lockout comes in 20 days.
I’m getting more and more a credible vibe that [the Phillies] might have something going on with Sato. We’ll see.“
Sato was not on many fans’ bingo cards to start the off-season. In terms of outfield upgrades, a primary area of concern for Dave Dombrowski, it was assumed the team would primarily pursue Randy Arozarena or Seiya Suzuki in free agency. It’s possible that will still happen, but as Salisbury noted on The Phillies Show podcast, Sato is the most likely to sign before the presumed lockout that will likely begin on December 2.
Which player would be the best fit for the Phils? Let’s break it down.
We’ll start with a very basic table.
Teruaki Sato
One of the biggest issues confronting this roster is its age. Dombrowski is understandably reluctant to hand out another five-year contract to a player entering his mid-30s. Sato is five years younger than Suzuki and Arozarena, a major factor for an aging roster.
Sato is the reigning Triple Crown winner in Japan following a season in which he hit .306/.383/.609 with 39 HRs and 106 RBIs with 40 doubles. He hit 40 dingers in 2025, so his power is no fluke, and in six seasons he’s piled up 167 homers. For a team that lost a significant amount of power last year, Sato would appear to be a prime candidate to help in that regard.
His numbers are comparable to last off-season’s big Japanese import, Munetaka Murakami, who signed with the White Sox and slugged 35 homers with 77 RBIs in his rookie season. He hit just .207 and struck out 196 times but also had 92 walks, good for a .347 OBP. The numbers were Kyle Schwarber-like. In his last full season in Japan (2024), Murakami batted .244/.379/.472, with an .851 OPS, 33 HRs and just 13 doubles. He struck out 180 times in that league and walked 105. Sato whiffed 164 times last season and walked just 68 times. So, a little more contact, fewer walks, a bit more power from Sato.
Sato has primarily played third base in Japan, although most teams believe he should transition to corner outfield. It appears the Phillies have the same idea, although he could be a good fall-back option at third as well. He committed more errors at third than anyone else in the NPB in 2024 and 2026, but threw a Gold Glove season in the middle of that in ‘25. He has 260 career games in corner outfield in Japan, so this would not be a difficult transition.
The great unknown about Sato, just like every other hitter who comes to the States, is how he’ll handle Major League pitching. More specifically, velocity. There are fewer hard-throwers overseas and no one knows how Sato will be able to handle seeing more pitches in the mid-to-upper 90s.
MLBTR’s contract prediction for him is for five years, one year longer than Suzuki’s and Arozarena’s, for $80 million ($16 million AAV).
Seiya Suzuki
Suzuki, himself a Japanese import ahead of the 2022 season, has had a remarkably consistent and productive big league career, spending all five seasons in Chicago with the Cubs. He has hit between .245 and .285 every season, posted an OBP between .326 and .368 (last year), a slugging percentage between .433 and .485, and an OPS+ between 125 and 138 over each of the last four years. He banged 26 home runs last year with 86 RBIs, had among the lowest chase rates in MLB and plays a very good corner outfield defense.
He’s a right-handed, consistent, pitch-taking power hitter who would seemingly provide solid production in the middle of the lineup. He’d probably be their best right-handed hitting outfielder since Jayson Werth. There really are no flaws in his game, as evidenced by his 5.1 WAR last year, other than his age. And potentially the cost.
The Phillies really don’t need to sign another player in their mid-30s to a long contract, and MLB Trade Rumors’ predicted contract for Suzuki is for four years, $105 million. That’s $26 million AAV, which doesn’t break the bank, but locks them in through Suzuki’s age-36 season. He also received, and rejected, a qualifying offer from Chicago, meaning the Phillies would relinquish a 2nd and 5th round draft pick in this year’s draft, as well as $1 million in international bonus pool money, items Dombrowski doesn’t seem too stressed about.
Randy Arozarena
Like Suzuki, Arozarena is a right-handed power hitter that, on paper, would seemingly be a perfect fit.
He had the best season of his career in 2025, hitting .281/.381/.484, with an .865 OPS that is even more impressive given he did it all playing half his games in Seattle, one of the most pitching-friendly environments in baseball. His 148 OPS+ indicates he was 48% above average offensively for players at his position last season. His 5.7 WAR was, by far, a career high, and he led the AL in runs scored (113), with 26 homers and 79 RBIs. He’s also athletic on the bases, good enough for a sixth-straight 20/20 season.
However, as noted by MLBTR, Arozarena’s bat speed has slowed significantly:
His swings averaged 72.8 mph back in 2023 — in the 64th percentile of big league hitters. It’s dropped in three straight seasons but fell precipitously in 2026 — from last year’s 72.3 mph to just 70.9 mph in 2026. That’s in just the 31st percentile of major league hitters.
He’s also chasing more:
Arozarena’s 30.7% chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone is the highest of his career and represents an increase of five and a half percentage points over his 2025 levels. He still walked at a strong 10.1% clip, but even that number is down noticeably from its 11.8% peak in 2023-24.
I’m concerned we’re looking at someone who will fare similarly to how Nick Castellanos’ career went in Philadelphia coming off a career-best season in 2021. At 32, Arozarena is projected to earn a four-year contract worth $100 million and, like Suzuki, was also given, and turned down, a qualifying offer.
From a pure baseball standpoint, I would prefer the Phillies to prioritize these outfielders as follows:
- Suzuki
- Sato
- Arozarena
While I’m wary of Arozarena, the Phillies must pursue him if they lose out on Suzuki and Sato. That said, those two players should be ahead of him in the pecking order.
All have some warts, but all three are better than anything the Phils have in the outfield as present.
