The #10 Virginia Cavaliers’ date on Thursday at noon is written in ink as the NC State Wolfpack opened their ACC tournament with a pull away win in the second round against Pittsburgh. The Panthers led by nine midway through the first half, but by the time the halftime buzzer sounded, the Wolfpack grabbed a 51-50 lead headed into the locker room. They proceeded to open up the second half on a 10-1 run and didn’t look back from there.
The Wolpack won 98-88, shot 61% from the floor, 57% (13-23) from three,
only had six total turnovers, and had six players hit the double-figure mark in points, including all five of their starters. All in all, a tremendous showing from Will Wade’s group and a performance that has the ability to help spark a run in the postseason.
Their reward for advancing in the ACC tournament is a well-rested Virginia group that the Wolfpack have already fallen victim to twice this year, both in blowout fashion. After the 90-61 trampling in Charlotte, Will Wade took to the podium and spoke about just how good Virginia is, saying that “if we played them 10 times, I’m not sure we would beat them. maybe once.” Well, how about playing them three times?
To put it simply, the Wolfpack will have to play a very similar game to the one they played on Wednesday, but against a far better opponent on both ends of the floor. NC State was more physical and stronger, and they could create their own shots against Pittsburgh with ease. Quadir Copeland led the way with 24 points, shooting 7/10 from the floor.
The Wolfpack will struggle to repeat this recipe for success against the Cavaliers, as they haven’t been able to mirror anything close to that in the prior two matchups. Virginia has shown the ability to guard its playmakers very well on defense, and its shot blockers make it extremely difficult for the Wolfpack to finish at the rim. On the opposite side of the floor, Virginia has shone as well, averaging 12.5 threes, 15.5 assists, and shooting over 50% from the floor.
Now, Vegas has this as a close one with the line opening up at 4.5 points with Virginia as a favorite. It is tough to beat a team three straight times in this league, especially one with the roster that NC State has, but I think Virginia matches up very well here.
Thijs De Ridder has been able to go to work in both games with 19 and 14 points, Sam Lewis has looked very comfortable and has had his best games against the Wolfpack, and Malik Thomas has hit double figures in both matchups. Meanwhile, Jacari White hit four of five threes in his only game against them, Dallin Hall and Chance Mallory have both been able to facilitate the ball very well averaging eight assists between the two of them in both games, and the two-headed monster of Johann Gruenloh and Ugonna Onyenso have dominated in the paint on defense with 15 total blocks in two games.
For the Wolfpack to keep it close, they will have to let it fly and convert from three at a similar rate that they did against the Panthers in the second round. Don’t rule that out, it is March after all.
Prediction: Virginia 84 NC State 73
