We continue our series on the New Jersey Devils’ pending free agents today with a look at Paul Cotter. During his time in the Garden State, Cotter has flashed some brilliance, flashed some ineffectiveness, and to his credit has become a staple of the Devils’ lineup for two seasons now. But should that continue into next season? Let’s take a look at his case.
Who Is Paul Cotter?
Paul Cotter was born on November 16, 1999. Hailing from the great state of Michigan, Cotter was originally selected in the 4th round of the 2018
entry draft by the Vegas Golden Knights. After a brief stop (very brief, as in only eight total games!) in the NCAA with Western Michigan, Cotter entered professional hockey with the Chicago Wolves, then the Henderson Silver Knights, the AHL affiliates of the Golden Knights at the time.
Cotter broke into the NHL for a cup of coffee during the 2021-22 season, then stuck permanently in The Show starting with the 2022-23 campaign. After spending two full seasons and that one partial season in Vegas, Cotter was traded to New Jersey during the 2024 draft, which coincidentally was held at Sphere in Las Vegas. He has spent the last two campaigns with the Devils.
What Has Cotter Done As A Devil?
In those two seasons in New Jersey, Cotter has become a true staple of the lineup. He played in 79 games in both 2024-25 an 2025-26, and he also suited up in all five playoff games for New Jersey in April of 2025, his first taste of postseason hockey. In his first campaign with the Devils, Cotter posted a Cy-Young-worthy stat line of 16 goals and six assists, to go along with one assist in his five playoff contests. He followed that up by registering nine goals and six assists (consistency!) in 2025-26. Cotter has also been known for his physical play, setting a single season franchise record with 245 hits in 2024-25, and following that up with another 192 last season.
For a fourth liner, which is what Cotter mostly was in 2024-25, 16 goals was an impressive feat, even if he didn’t put up very many assists to go along with it. But the goal-scoring dried up a bit in 2025-26, and he couldn’t make up for it by tacking on some more helpers.
The lack of production wouldn’t have been a huge problem if he was controlling play to an impressive enough degree. For the most part, Cotter wasn’t doing too poorly on that front in 2024-25, as according to Natural Stat Trick, his 5-on-5 metrics were all either slightly above breakeven or right below it. Not amazing, but certainly not bad for a fourth line grinder with some skill. However, his numbers absolutely cratered in 2025-26, with numbers hovering around 40%, including a 41.81 Expected Goals%. Even with the respectable underlying metrics in 2024-25, Cotter has found himself significantly outscored while on the ice each of the last two seasons as well. In 2024-25, at 5-on-5 Cotter was outscored 27-43 (38.57 GF%), and in 2025-26 that goal deficit was a shocking 15-41 (26.79 GF%). For whatever reason, Cotter made it too easy for opponents to score goals the last two seasons.
The biggest positive in Cotter’s game is his surprising skill for a depth player. Inexplicably, Cotter has been by far New Jersey’s most dangerous weapon in shootouts over the last two campaigns, scoring seemingly at will with a bottomless bag of tricks. This also makes him money when he gets sprung on a breakaway, which is somewhat rare for Cotter but is truly breathtaking to watch when it does happen:
Does his genuinely game-breaking hands make all the warts in his game worth it? That will be up to new general manager Sunny Mehta to decide.
What Will Cotter Do Going Forward?
At 26-years-old (he turns 27 in November), I think we’re pretty firmly in “What you see is what you get” territory for Cotter. I can’t deny the possibility that he goes somewhere else that knows how to truly maximize his potential, but honestly I think the 2024-25 season was about as close to his peak as we’re going to see. He did score 13 goals in 55 games in 2022-23, an 84-game* pace of just under 20 goals, but that’s not demonstrably more than the 16 he potted in 2024-25. Plus who’s to say he wouldn’t have slowed down if he had gotten a full season’s worth of games under his belt? His atrocious underlying numbers in 2022-23 tell us he was due for a little regression anyway.
(*Remember, the NHL is moving to an 84-game regular season. Adjust your priors accordingly)
So back to the question: What will Cotter do going forward? I say he does more or less what he’s done his whole career: Register mediocre to bad underlying metrics, get outscored by a million, flash some absolutely brilliant skill on the occasional highlight reel goal, and hit everything that moves. I feel pretty confident in that prognostication.
What Is Cotter’s Value?
For all of Cotter’s flaws, it could still be argued that he provided surplus value considering he was plying his trade on a league-minimum $775,000 AAV contract. That literally won’t be an option anymore, with the league-minimum salary rising to $850,000 to match the ballooning salary cap.
That being said, AFP Analytics does not think Cotter is a league-minimum player anymore. They project his next contract to come in at two years with an AAV of $2.5M. It is once again important to keep in mind that with the cap rising as much as it is, numbers that might seem high really aren’t anymore. That being said, this still strikes me as a little rich for Cotter. I think he could get close to $2M per year on his next deal, but $2.5M is a bit of a stretch. If he gets that kind of cash, hey more power to him, I wish him well. But I would bet against that.
Meanwhile, if you’re looking for comps for Cotter, I would suggest that a pair of good comps would be Alexander Holtz and Akira Schmid. No particular reason why.
What Would I Do With Cotter? What Do I Think The Devils Will Do?
As much as I have enjoyed watching Cotter’s occasional skill and consistent physicality, I don’t think I want Cotter as a regular in the lineup anymore. The negatives outweigh the positives too much for me to think he can contribute in a meaningful way to a (hopefully) championship roster. That being said, I think Cotter would be a reasonable player to have as a 13th or 14th forward. He can play both center and wing, he provides that grit that classic fourth line grinders seemingly need, and as mentioned numerous times already, he can pop with surprising speed and skill in a depth role. Having Cotter as an extra on a league-minimum salary wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world in my opinion. Heck I’d even be willing to go up to $1M AAV for him. But anything more than that, and I tell him thank you for your time, best of luck elsewhere.
As far as what I think the Devils will do, I believe they’ll cut ties. Mehta seems like the kind of executive that values an analytical profile above all else (although I do get the feeling he genuinely puts some stock in non-tangible things like character, attitude, and so on). So with a player like Cotter, who isn’t exactly an analytical darling, I think Mehta will look at him and believe he can get a cheaper, more effective version elsewhere. Time will tell if I’m correct in that regard.
Your Take
What’s your take on Paul Cotter? Do you want the Devils to bring him back? If so, what sort of deal would you be comfortable giving him? If this really is it for Cotter in New Jersey, do you think the Devils officially won or lost that trade? What has been your favorite Paul Cotter moment over the last two years? As always, thanks for reading!
