The NFL Draft is all about hope. Hope for something new. Hope for something better. Hope for change.
Wrapped up in that hope is the idea that the next player will be better than the last. Eventually, the hypothetical becomes real. The production speaks for itself, either for better or for worse.
The harsh reality is that most draft picks don’t work out. Heck, half of the first round picks don’t become who they were expected to be. It’s why some teams have adopted the “[bleep] them picks” mantra.
Which
directions will the winds blow on the 2026 rookie class of the Kansas City Chiefs? A lot of that depends on how defensive tackle Peter Woods and edge rusher R. Mason Thomas translate to the next level.
I’m not sure about you, but I’ve done plenty of daydreaming about what Woods and Thomas will look like rushing the passer this season alongside All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones and defensive end George Karlaftis. If the rookies are as good as advertised, it could be a heck of a lot of fun to watch in 2026 and beyond.
But that’s all hypothetical. Will the reality match the dream?
I did some research into the past production of defensive tackles selected in the first round and defensive ends selected between picks 30 and 50 in the NFL Draft. Doing so could help us use history as our guide to set proper expectations for two of the Chiefs’ top draft picks.
The average defensive tackle drafted in the first round over the past decade finishes his rookie season with 28 tackles, 2.5 sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss. Only five of those 30 first-round defensive tackles from the past decade finished their rookie year with more than four sacks. Only six tallied more than six tackles for loss.
For context, Charles Omenihu had 3.5 sacks and five tackles for loss with the Chiefs last season.
The production for rookie defensive ends selected between picks 30 and 50 over the past decade is even less inspiring, with the average rookie defensive end selected in that range producing 25 tackles, two sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss.
Ashton Gillotte finished last season with 38 tackles, 1.5 sacks and three tackles for loss for the Chiefs.
I’m not trying to be a wet blanket. It’s okay to dream on rookie production. Sometimes it works out; Karlaftis was pretty darn good for the Chiefs, producing six sacks and eight tackles for loss. Bryan Bresee, a Clemson product like Woods, finished his rookie year with 4.5 sacks and seven tackles for loss. That kind of production from Thomas or Woods would go a long way toward improving the Chiefs’ lackluster pass rush from a year ago.
My point is that expecting that kind of production from a rookie can put the player in a difficult position. Very few rookie defensive linemen drafted, whether Thomas or Woods, come in and immediately produce at a high level. Maybe they will, but that would place them in outlier territory.
The more likely scenario is one or both develop into significant contributors over time. Meanwhile, a healthy Karlaftis and a newly signed nose tackle, Khyiris Tonga, serve as the primary reasons to be optimistic about the 2026 defensive line.
And we can still dream about another free agent signing.
