Both teams approached the Week 14 match between the Commanders and Vikings badly in need of a get-right win. The mood on Hogs Haven was upbeat, with Jayden Daniels’ first start since Week 6 headlining a list of starters recently returning from injury. A week after taking the second-seed Denver Broncos to an overtime nail-biter, it might have felt like Washington had the advantage, even on the road.
That just goes to show that a 3-9 team on a seven-game losing streak can’t take any games for granted.
Who knew?
With the 0-31 blowout loss to the previously struggling Minnesota Vikings, the Commanders became the first team to be eliminated from the playoffs in Week 14. This was not the get-right win that Commanders fans had hoped for, but should not have surprised anyone.
The Commanders’ defense ranks 31st in the NFL, at an alarming +0.156 EPA/play. You really want that figure to be negative – the Texans’ defense leads the league at -0.131 EPA/play. The Commanders rank dead last in dropback EPA/play at an eye-popping +0.267, and rank 26th against the run at +0.004.
The offense has scored enough points to win many of their games this season, and has only scored under 21 pts five times. They rank an almost respectable 14th in EPA/play at 0.028. Well, at least they are in positive territory. However, Jayden Daniels’ dismal performance on his return from injury is sure to fuel growing unease about the possibility that team’s star QB could be regressing in his second season.
If that were not enough to give Commanders’ fans sleepless nights, the injury bug bit back hard in Minnesota, with TE Zach Ertz suffering a season-ending ACL tear, and Daniels re-injuring his left elbow.
The Commanders will have a lot of work to do this off-season to right the ship and set the franchise rebuild back on course. While the loss to one of their easiest remaining opponents on paper was not what they needed to keep the momentum heading in a positive direction, there is at least a thin sliver of a silver lining.
The loss to the Vikings allowed the Commanders to maintain their hold on the sixth place in the draft order, rather than sliding to tenth place, behind the Rams (courtesy of the Falcons), which would have happened if they had won.
A difference of four places might not seem that big in the overall scheme of things, but it could spell the difference between drafting an elite playmaker on defense (e.g. DE Rueben Bain, S Caleb Downs, LB/Edge Arvell Reese) and picking from the next tier of prospects. Alternatively, dropping four places in the top 10 could be enough to move the Commanders out of position for a blockbuster trade offer, to reload Adam Peters with the draft capital he needs to upgrade multiple roster positions.
While most Commanders fans will be cheering for their team to win each of their remaining games, the reality is that that’s just not going to happen. The Tank Tracker is for those readers who would rather look the bright side of the inevitable losses down the stretch than wallow in the misery of a lost season.
If the Season Ended Today
As I have stressed in previous editions, moving any further up the draft order will be a challenge, even if the Commanders lose their remaining games. They can’t do on their own. They will need help from the teams ahead of them.
In last week’s Tank Tracker, it seemed that the Commanders’ best chance of moving up a spot was the Cleveland Browns’ matchup against the 1-11 Tennessee Titans. The Titans had other ideas, however, and delivered one of the biggest surprises of the week in a 31-29 upset of the Browns. That just goes to show the type of competitors that the Commanders are up against in their quest for top five draft pick. Nothing is going to come easy.
What seemed like the least likely scenario for help from above was the lowly 2-10 New Orleans Saints upsetting the 7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were 9 pt favorites. But that is exactly what happened, as the Saints shocked the Buccaneers with a 24-20 victory. The Saints’ win did not drop them behind Washington in the draft order. They would need a second win to do that, due to a weaker Strength of Schedule (SOS). But with remaining games against the Panthers, Jets, Titans and Falcons, they have plenty of opportunities remaining to get out of the Commanders’ way.
At the final whistle of Week 16, the Commanders found themselves at 6th place in the draft order, facing tough, if not insurmountable competition for a place in the top-5, as well as stiff competition for their position from teams barking at their heels. Here is how the draft order would look, if the season ended today, courtesy of Tankathon:
Moving Up
With four games remaining, it is mathematically possible for the Commanders to end up with the first overall pick in the draft. Up to now, I had discounted the possibility of the Titans winning two more games to fall behind Washington. But Sunday’s upset wins by the Titans and Saints were a wake-up call, and a reminder of what can happen on any given Sunday. We now have to consider any of the teams ahead of the Commanders as competitors for draft position.
That is good news, since it means that the first overall pick is in play for Washington.
The upset of the Browns dropped the Titans to third place, behind the Giants and Raiders. They can fall behind Washington with one more win, not matched by a Commanders win, due to much stronger SOS.
Washington’s division rival Giants jumped up to first place during their bye week, thanks to the Titans’ win, and a strong SOS. However, one win by the Giants will drop them behind the Commanders, if it’s not matched by a Washington win, based on current SOS. The increase in Washington’s SOS caused by a single Giants’ win would not be enough to change that. We need them to win another game, without going on a winning streak which could become problematic for our tie-breakers with other teams.
The Las Vegas Raiders also overtook the Titans to move into second position, thanks to the SOS tie break. They can also fall behind the Commanders with an unmatched win, due to a strong SOS.
The Commanders are currently middle of the pack among the five teams with 3-10 records. They sit behind the Cleveland Browns, who have a substantial SOS advantage, and the Saints, whose SOS margin is smaller. A single unmatched win by either of those teams will allow the Commanders to overtake them. But they are likely to remain constant threats for the rest of the season due to the SOS margins.
Threats from Behind
The Jets and Cardinals, also at 3-10, are at significant disadvantage to Washington in the SOS tiebreak. As long as Washington keeps even with them in W-L record, they will stay ahead. But these teams become a problem if Washington wins a game. Wins by these teams would give the Commanders a buffer to withstand a win of their own.
If the Commanders do win another game, and their draft-position competitors don’t, they will also fall behind the Rams, who own the 4-9 Falcons’ pick, in addition to Jets and Cardinals. It would take two more wins for Washington to fall behind the 4-9 Bengals based on current SOS. However, the Bengals’ SOS is close enough to Washington’s that the situation could easily change. They are a lesser threat than the Falcons, but not entirely safe either.
I don’t think we have to worry about the Vikings at 5-8 or any team with six wins. If Washington wins two or more of their last four games, just be happy that they finally turned things around to finish the season strong and don’t worry about what it does to their draft position.
Week 15 Rooting Guide
To take the hard work out of cheering for better draft position, I have pulled together this handy rooting guide for Week 15 games.
Most Important Games
Wins by the teams in bold will move Washington up one spot in the draft order, unless Washington wins as well. In one case, that would be impossible.
New York Giants (2-11) vs Washington Commanders (3-10) – It would be crossing a line to ask Hogs Haven readers to cheer for a Commanders’ loss. Instead, I will merely point out that a win by the Giants will move Washington up a minimum of one position in the draft order. In addition to moving the Commanders into rarified territory of the draft, this would allow them to take an impact player off the board who would otherwise fall to a division rival. The Australian parliamentary system, has something called a conscience vote, when members of parliament are allowed to vote across party lines without repercussions. That’s what’s called for here. Cheer however your conscience tells you
Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) @ Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) – No moral dilemmas with this one. A win by the Raiders moves the Commanders ahead of them in the draft order and deals a blow to the Commanders’ most hated rival. Just win baby!
Tennessee Titans (2-11) @ San Francisco 49ers (9-4) – The surprise upset of the Browns dropped the Titans to third place in the draft order and within Washington’s reach. One more win will drop them behind the Commanders, due to much stronger SOS. It might be asking a little much for them to defeat the 49ers, who are riding a three-game winning streak. But they looked better than expected on Sunday. The Week 17 game against the Saints provides an even better opportunity to get out of our way. Hoo! Hoo! Hoo!
Cleveland Browns (3-10) @ Chicago Bears (9-4) – I didn’t say this was going to be easy. But nothing worth having ever is. Caleb Williams has been flashing signs of becoming the QB the Bears thought they were getting with the first overall pick. But the Browns have a secret weapon of their own in fifth round pick Shedeur Sanders, whose QBR has grown exponentially in his first four starts. In the loss to the Titans, Sanders completed 23 passes for 364 yds, 3 TD and 1 INT, and added another TD on the ground. With Myles Garrett leading the top ranked defense by opponent success rate (fourth by EPA/play, 2nd by yards allowed), the Browns are poised for the upset. Woof! Woof!
New Orleans Saints (3-10) vs Carolina Panthers (7-6) –The Browns aren’t the only team who might have made an unexpected find at QB. Tyler Shough looked good as a two-way threat in the takedown of the division-leading Buccaneers. While he only completed 13/20 passes for 144 yards and an INT, he also ran 7 times for 55 yds and 2 TDs. Shough’s 75.0 QBR ranked 8th best in the NFL in Week 14. Can the Saints make it two upsets in a row when they take on the new NFC South division leaders? Bryce Young was on fire in the Week 13 upset of the Rams. But the Saints are the disruptive upstart in the south. Another win will drop them behind Washington. Who dat say they gonna beat dem Saints? Who dat? Who dat?
Other Important Games
Wins by teams in bold will help to mitigate threats from teams dogging the Commanders’ heels.
New York Jets (3-10) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) – The Jets failed to deliver for Washinton in their Week 14 matchup with the Dolphins. They won’t get many better opportunities with remaining games against the Jaguars, Patriots and Bills. So they had better make every game count. I can’t seriously think of any reason that the Jets will win, other than an unexpected upset. The Jets are not the Commanders’ biggest worry right now. But they become a problem if Washington wins. Root for the upset to give the Commanders some buffer to absorb a win. J-E-T-S, Jets! Jets! Jets!
Arizona Cardinals (3-10) @ Houston Texans (8-5) – the Cardinals are sitting right behind Washington at 3-10, with a much higher SOS. One win by the Commanders will put Arizona ahead. They need to break their five game losing streak to give Washington some breathing room. The Texans are on a five game winning streak, so it’s a big ask with QB Kyler Murray out for the season with a foot injury. Can Jacoby Brissett deliver another clutch performance for the Commanders? The Cardinals are a-chargin’!
Atlanta Falcons (4-9) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) – The Saints revealed the cracks in the Bucs’ awesome façade. Can the Falcons break it wide open? Probably not, but an Atlanta win would keep the Falcons from moving ahead of the Commanders if Dan Quinn has another win in store. RISE UP!
Cincinnati Bengals (4-9) vs Baltimore Ravens (6-7) – Joe Burrow’s return from a turf toe injury could not have come at a better time for the Commanders. This is a rematch against the same struggling Ravens’ team the Bengals beat two weeks ago. Cincinnati’s got this. Welcome to the jungle!
Week 15 Games that Could Make a Difference
Wins by the teams assist the Commanders achieve better draft position via the SOS tiebreaker.
Indianapolis Colts (8-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (10-3) – Both teams have some common opponents who are Washington rivals, but cancel out. The differences are that the Colts play the Raiders and the Titans, of which the Raiders are moderately close to Washington in SOS. The Seahawks play the Saints, who are now our closest rival, but they also played the Commanders. That is the key, since any gain to the Saints SOS from a Seahawks’ win will be completely offset by an equal gain to the Commanders’ SOS. The latter will also hurt in all of Washington’s potential tiebreak scenarios. A Colts’ win is clearly better for Washington. For the shoe!
Minnesota Vikings (5-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1) – This is a little complicated, because both teams play different sets of Washington rivals. Two things set them apart. First, while both teams play Washington, the Cowboys play them twice. Secondly, the Vikings play the Browns, who are only ahead of Washington in the draft order by virtue of the SOS tiebreak. A Vikings’ win will help to close the gap with Cleveland, while a Cowboys’ win will hurt Washington a little more in all tiebreak scenarios. Also, when in doubt, cheer for whoever is playing Dallas. Skol!
LA Rams (10-3) vs Detroit Lions (8-5) – This is a tough call. Both teams play some of Washington’s main rivals for draft position. Of these, the closest in SOS and draft position to Washington are Cleveland, who play the Lions, and the Saints, who play the Rams. The key differentiator is that only the Lions played Washington. So any bump to Cleveland’s SOS caused by a Lions’ win will be offset by an equal bump to the Commanders’ SOS, which will also hurt other tie break scenarios. That gives a clear advantage to the Rams. Good thing, because I don’t like the Lions. A Rams’ win could also help in a tie break with the Falcons. Whose house? Our house!
Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) @ Denver Broncos (11-2) – This is an even tougher call than the last one. Both teams played Washington, so the effects on our SOS are a wash. The Packers played Cleveland and Arizona, while the Broncos play the Titans, Jets and Raiders twice. The decision comes down to where SOS is most likely to make a difference. The Titans and Cardinals have such a large SOS disadvantage to Washington that they are unlikely to catch up no matter how the remaining games go. That leaves Cleveland on the Packers side vs Jets and Raiders on the Broncos side, as Washington rivals with SOS within reach. The Browns are currently only ahead of Washington due to SOS, and the margin is the smallest of any of these teams. Wins by the Packers and a few of their other opponents could be enough to drop Cleveland behind Washington in the draft order. I could be wrong about this, but I think a Packers win is most likely to pay dividends for the Commanders. Get your cheese head on!
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) vs Miami Dolphins (6-7) – As a general rule, if one team plays Washington and the other doesn’t, we want Washington’s opponent to lose, to lower our SOS for advantages in all tie breaks. Pittsburgh also plays Cleveland and Cincinnati one more time than the Dolphins did, which could help in tiebreaks with those teams. Here we go Steelers! Here We Go!
New England Patriots (11-2) vs Buffalo Bills (9-4) – Both teams play several of Washington’s draft position rivals, but only the Patriots play the Giants and Titans. A New England win strengthens the SOS of two of our biggest rivals for draft position. However, the Giants and Titans both have an SOS disadvantage to Washington already, so it’s not very likely to make much difference. Go Pats, I guess
One Unimportant Game
LA Chargers (9-4) @ KC Chiefs (6-7) – Both teams played Washington and have a lot of common opponents. The biggest difference is that only the Chargers played the Dolphins. But the Dolphins are no longer a threat to Washington’s draft position. Doesn’t matter
