News will be slow this week, not simply because of ‘Bama’s bye, but because most of the nation’s ranked teams have taken the week off, which was rather inconsiderate of them.
So, we’ll also take a breather and survey the landscape:
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Let’s begin with the maddening non-logic of the polling system, poll voters, and why those things actually matter to the playoff.
ESPN’s accursed FPI, which they intend on trying to brute-force as some sort of real thing, has always had some wonky math. But this week’s bubble
watch may be the best illustration, discussing playoff odds for all conferences.
In the latest top 12 projection, the No. 12 Longhorns would be out of the playoff to make room for projected American champion South Florida. Let that sink in for a minute: The most hyped team in America this preseason is now projected to watch the playoff from home. ESPN Analytics gives Texas the fourth-best chance to reach the SEC championship game (26%) behind Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama. The Longhorns’ season-opening road loss to Ohio State isn’t the problem — it’s the product on the field. Quarterback Arch Manning has a QBR of 49.6, No. 88 in the country. He completed 44% of his passes against UTEP on Saturday and threw an interception in the end zone. It’s not just Manning. Penalties. Third-down conversions. Red zone efficiency (or lack thereof).
Yes, Texas is sick. Does anyone really think it will matter if the ‘Horns go 10-2 and only have one or two decent wins? As I was explaining to a reader on the hellmouth of Twitter: Yes, it’s absurd that we have preseason and early season polls; no, they should not matter; yes, human nature being what it is, they nevertheless are important because they establish the meta — they bias the rankings later used by the CFP Committee.
It’s apparent even now. The Longhorns have not beaten a single decent team, and they’ve looked like crap against even their two soup cans. Yet, there they are sitting at No. 8. Why? Because they began the season at No. 1. And, even if they muddle about with a mediocre schedule, and finish 10-2 losing to almost every quality team they face, UT will assuredly be rewarded for it. The Longhorns won’t be left out.
Of course, that can work to Alabama’s benefit too. The Tide began the season ranked 8th, and after a road loss against an unexpectedly good FSU team, vaulted back into playoff contention because they started high. Polls not only confirm biases, polls also create expectations. FSU has played not a soul with a pulse beyond Alabama. But, because the ‘Noles beat Alabama, they surely are good, right? And that is why we find FSU checking in at No. 7 in the polls this week.
And those waters are muddied even further when you get such specious logic as that sharted out by professional Michigan apologist Nicole Auerbach, who took time out of her busy schedule White Knighting for the Big 10 to not only rank 0-2 Notre Dame this week, but even explain why:
It is certainly possible that I’m giving Notre Dame too much credit for two “good” losses. But I also feel like the Irish’s scenario is not quite as cut and dry as other teams I took off my ballot entirely…I’ll give Irish another chance, against a non-top 10 team, to show me who they are.
That might not be the right decision to make as a voter. This is why I’m glad there are lots of other voters with different takes on the situation, because the collective decision to keep Notre Dame ranked — but just barely — feels right to me. Ultimately, we are not overly punishing a team for voluntarily choosing to schedule difficult opponents (and losing those games).
My sister in Christ, at some point you have to taste the food on your plate: The Irish losing a tough road opener with a rebuilt secondary and a new quarterback? Sure. You can afford Notre Dame some grace. But the Irish didn’t just lose against A&M; they collapsed. ND was at home, in a prime time night game. They forced Texas A&M into 13 penalties, held Marcel Reed to a sub-.500 night, were leading with two minutes in the game…and lost. Again. You are what your record says you are.
More importantly, we were assured last year by a certain Nicole Auerbach that scheduling tough games doesn’t matter, winning the games on your schedule does…as long as the team is “fun” and “unpredictable.” I’m not picking on her; she just happened to be the first one up this week. How are people meant to have any faith in the process, when the very voters have zero internal consistency?
And we can’t forget this person either. Sorry to pick on you, Haley. But you shouldn’t have a vote. Do you know how bad you have to be at your job to make me agree with Clay Travis?
This bad:
We are giving away playoff spots worth millions and millions of dollars — deciding the fates of entire programs, of coaches, of players — based on vibes, apparently.
And, in the end, despite the howls from the Big 10, that pesky scheduling strength will matter; or at least the Cracker Barrel Commish thinks so. In a discussion with Goodman of all people, Greg Sankey seems to intimate that the league office is going to extemporize every so often to put their thumb on the scale and ensure the SEC gets many more seats at the table. So, all of that talk about “permanent rivalries?” Nah, they’re annualized rivalries now — Alabama may very well see LSU rotate off the every-year schedule and be replaced with Mississippi State (for instance), to create better “competitive balance.”
Because teams may suck for a few years, that is perhaps why Sankey was quick to say the new nine-game slate didn’t have permanent rivals.
The SEC is going to nine-game conference schedules in 2026 to keep up with the Big Ten’s War of Northern Aggression. It’s exciting news, so I asked Sankey about how the league is making the schedules. It’s a six-plus-three model, which means teams will play six games against rotating opponents while keeping three permanent rivalry games.
Is Sankey getting any feedback from member institutions about who they want for permanent rivals? That was my question, but Sankey was quick to point out that “permanent” was imprecise language.
Lawyers gonna lawyer.
“Well, it’s not ‘permanent,’” Sankey said, “and that’s a fair question because when we explored this earlier the phrase was permanent rivals. So, these are annual rivalry games and we’ve acknowledged that we’ll go through a four-year cycle and take an examination, or look deeply.
“I think what we’re seeing is, compared to our divisional days, the opportunity for the nine-game schedule. Because remember, it’s not just the three-game schedule, it’s how nine provides for the opportunity for more competitive balance.
Lawyer-Speak: “We’re not going to jam LSU with games against Florida, Alabama and Texas A&M every year, or shove Florida, Tennessee, and Auburn at the Dawgs…not when a potential extra loss costs us a $20m spot in the playoffs.” My guess for the future? Look for a whole lot of schedules calculated to get half a dozen teams to ten wins.
Is it cynical? Absolutely. But welcome to College Football ‘25…as opposed to the other cynical College Football ‘25.
Field of 68, easily the best hoops analysts in the talk-o-sphere, have dropped their Preseason Top 25, and the Tide checks in fourth in the SEC, 14th overall:
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14. ALABAMA
Projected Starters
G Labaron Philon Jr.
G Aden Holloway
F Latrell Wrightsell Jr.
F Taylor Bol Bowen
C Aiden Sherrell
The expectations completely changed when Philon opted to withdraw from the NBA Draft and return for his sophomore season. Now the Crimson Tide have an absolutely loaded perimeter with Philon (10.6 ppg), Holloway (11.4 ppg), Wrightsell, Houston Mallette and Jalil Bethea (Miami). This team will miss Mark Sears’ scoring ability, but they will have enough scoring weapons in the backcourt. The key for Nate Oats is whether the frontcourt will have enough: Talented sophomore Aiden Sherrell needs to take a jump, and Alabama will need transfers Noah Williamson (Bucknell) and Bol Bowen (Florida State) to provide consistency up front. We know that Oats’ teams can put up points, but will the Tide be able to defend at a high enough level to compete for an SEC title? That’ll be the difference between a team that can win a couple games in the tourney or one that can get to the Final 4.
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Honestly, I’m fine with beginning the season in the teens. Being the hunted every game is exhausting for a brand-new super power that is turning over its roster annually, and without the benefit of the big paychecks the ACC and Big East are dropping on hoops. Make this team earn their respect; they’re traditionally been a better team when they’re hungry.
There are six SEC squads in the F68 preliminary Top 25, and Alabama plays eight total teams on that list 11 times — at least, as there there is the potential to add an additional team like Michigan or Kansas, etc. in the Players Era Classic in Vegas.
Just win, and the rest will take care of itself.
Some dominoes are about to fall in a serious way after two high-profile firings have already occurred.
The most obvious is the fate of Virginia Tech. As expected, the Hokies are hot and bothered for native son Shane Beamer. If he answers affirmatively to this “Momma Called” moment and defecets to Blacksburg, it not only will create a coaching carousel chaos in the SEC, but it will also throw the winter Portal period into a frenzy.
Definitely keep an eye on this one. And it’s already about to be unhinged — the entire rosters for both teams can transfer immediately, and since the firings took place before a fourth game was played, potentially 210 players are eligible for redshirts at new schools.
This sport is cooked.
Let’s take this out with some good Gump red meat on a week there is obviously zero substance coming out of Tuscaloosa. And that begins with an appreciation of Ty Simpson compared to recent ‘Bama quarterbacks — three of whom are starting the NFL, I add.
We don’t fully appreciate how well he is playing overall, I don’t think. And even his “bad” game (a first time start, on the road, against a Top 10 team), saw Simpson not turn the ball over, hit nearly 300 yards, and throw for two scores. Sure, his game can and will (and needs) to improve, but it’s hard to ask much more than what he’s already done…especially when you line up his starts against previous greats.
Through his first three games as a starting quarterback, Simpson has completed 71.9% of his passes for 862 yards and nine touchdowns. He’s also rushed 17 times for 45 yards and a score, leading Alabama to a 2-1 record through the first quarter of the season. Simpson has also yet to turn the ball over, with zero interceptions on the season
And, finally, your moment of levity. There is so much going on in this Mexican high school football game, and every time you watch a different player, you find some magic.
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Alright, that’s all for now. Have a great morning, and take care.
Row Tahd
