On Dec. 30, the Illinois Fighting Illini will face the Tennessee Volunteers at Nissan Stadium in Nashville in the Music City Bowl.
In the preseason both were thought to compete for the College Football
Playoff. Both teams are 8-4 overall. The Illini were 5-4 in the Big Ten, and the Vols were 4-4 in the SEC. All of Tennessee’s losses came to ranked opponents (Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt). At the same time, the Illini lost two games to ranked opponents (Indiana and Ohio State) and two games to unranked opponents (Washington and Wisconsin).
Updated injuries and opt-outs
For Illinois edge rusher Gabe Jacas and OL JC Davis are opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. The other significant injury for the Illini is Xavier Scott, who has not played since week three.
For Tennessee the news is that stud receiver Chriss Brazell II (62 catches for 1,017 yards and nine TDs) has opted out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Could this be an aerial shootout?
This game will feature two of the best QBs in the country: Luke Altmyer and Joey Aguilar.
Altmyer, in his third season in Champaign, completed 68.1% of his passes for 2,811 yards and 21 TDs with five interceptions. He also ran 90 times for 188 yards and four touchdowns. Altmyer has thrown for 7,411 yards in 34 games at Illinois. He has had two games over 300 yards (328 vs. USC and 390 vs. Purdue) this season. He has thrown for multiple TDs seven times; three times, he has thrown for three or more in a game. Altmyer does like to spread the ball around, throwing touchdowns to nine different receivers this season. Collin Dixon leads the receivers with five TD receptions (33 catches for 538 yards), while Hank Beatty has totaled 826 receiving yards on 64 catches (three TDs).
In contrast, Joey Aguilar’s first season at Tennessee is 258 of 386, with a 66.8% completion rate, 3,444 yards, 24 TDs, 10 interceptions, and 62 carries for 104 yards and three TDs. He has four 300-yard passing games, but also four games with multiple interceptions. At Appalachian State (2023 & 2024), Aguilar threw for 6,760 yards and 56 TDs. He also threw 24 interceptions. Aguilar spreads the ball as well, hitting six different receivers for multiple touchdowns. Without Brazzell, Tennessee will depend on Braylon Staley, who has 64 receptions for 806 yards and six touchdowns, and Mike Mathews, 50 catches for 770 yards and four TDs, to step up.
Neither team plays particularly good passing defense. Tennessee is 15th out of 16 teams in the SEC, while the Illini are 15th in the 18-team Big Ten. So, both teams might be inclined to air it out.
The Ground Game
The Illini average 131.2 rushing yards per game and allow 124. Tennessee rushes for 174.8 yards per game and allows 146.7. The Illini ground pounders are led by Ca’Lil Valentine, with 123 carries for 549 yards and four scores. Backfield mate Kaden Feagin has 119 carries for 499 yards and seven TDs. As a team, the Illini have 1,574 yards on the ground with 20 TDs.
Tennessee features a notable ground threat in workhorse DeSean Bishop, who had 163 attempts for 983 yards and 14 TDs. When he is not getting it done, Star Thomas has been an adequate back-up, 95 carries for 529 yards and seven TDs. They also have Peyton Lewis with 7 TDs on 70 carries for 290 yards. Altogether, Tennessee has 2,098 yards, accounting for 32 TDs.
What about defense?
You have to wonder about the defense when Tennessee averages 40.8 points per game and Illinois averages 29.3 points per game.
Defensively, as noted earlier, both are weak against the pass, and the Illini will be without their top edge rusher. But they do still have a defense that leads the Big Ten in forced fumbles with 16. They allow 23.2 points per game. The Illini have done reasonably well against the run.
Tennessee has 36 sacks this season and leads the SEC with 20 forced fumbles. Dominic Bailey leads the team in sacks with 5.5. Fellow linemen Joshua Josephs and Caleb Herring each have four sacks. They allow 28.8 points per game. They will be a big challenge for the Illinois offensive line.
The X-Factor
If it comes down to a field goal, put your money on the Illini and David Alano, who is hitting the mark on 85% of FG attempts and has the leg to hit from 50+. Tennessee’s Max Gilbert is hitting 77% of his FG attempts.
My Call
The current odds have Tennessee favored by 4.5 and that seems about right even without Brazzell. This is a highly potent Tennessee offense. To win, the Illini will have to bring the offense and find a way to neutralize Aguilar while at the same time controlling the Volunteers’ ground game.
