It might be a bold statement so early in the season, but I believe that if we’re going to survive, we have to beat Brentford, Bournemouth, Burnley, and Leeds at home, and Wolves away this season — and rivalry aside, we really need at least a point at Sid James’ Park.
To explain, 35 points should be enough to secure safety.
Looking back over the last five seasons, 26 (2024/2025), 27, 35, 36 and 29 points were enough. So it seems simple: a point per game is all we need. Those points might come mostly
towards the end of the season (been there and done that) or on any other hot run.
However, in any league, it’s a bad idea to go on an extended losing run. The players’ confidence drops; the support gets jittery (just look at the social media commentary after just one loss last week) and the manager is under pressure, so it’s much better to set a points target for each chunk of games.
We can break this season down into five sets of five games, with three left over.
The final three are Manchester United (H), Everton (A), and Chelsea (H). I find it hard to believe that United will still be a mess at the end of the season; Chelsea will no doubt be chasing Europe (or more), and Everton away is always tough and they might be fighting for survival.
Let’s keep the stress levels down, assume we need 35 points after 35 games, and it’s best to chug along towards our target. Seven sets of five games and from each set we need five points.
Set One
Three points in the bag and Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A) and Aston Villa (H) remain. Our best hope is Brentford and we really need to be a little ahead of target to cover for sets three, seven and six (below), and if we could take a point off Villa, it would really help.
Set Two
Nottingham Forest (A), Manchester United (A), Wolves (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H). Everton and Wolves will probably struggle this season and United are imploding, so five points should be possible.
Set Three
Arsenal (H), Fulham (A), Bournemouth (H), Liverpool (A), Manchester City (A). The importance of the Bournemouth game should be clear.
Set Four
Newcastle (H), Brighton (A), Leeds (H), Manchester City (H), Spurs (A). Of course we would all love a derby win, but a point might be more realistic, hence the Leeds game is crucial.
Set Five
Brentford (A), Crystal Palace (H), West Ham (A), Burnley (H), Arsenal (A). Overall, five points should be possible — if we beat Burnley
Set Six
Liverpool (H), Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Leeds (A), Brighton (H). We’re going to need a buffer built up early season to cover a shortfall
Set Seven
Newcastle (A), Spurs (H), Villa (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Wolves (A). Again, a tough set, so we really need to beat either Newcastle (ideal) or Wolves away.
It’s a fool’s game, point spotting, but this is Sunderland and we always do things out of the ordinary.
We lost a so-called winnable game at Burnley, but then we’ll probably go and win away at somewhere like Manchester City, where nobody gives us a prayer. The end-of-season run of games is tough, so I hope we’re not left relying on last-minute heroics.
