After a much-needed offensive outburst on Tuesday, the White Sox are back at it, looking to capture their second straight series with another victory tonight.
Last night’s win kept the South Siders clinging to a 2 1/2-game edge in the AL Central, with the Guardians refusing to go away after stealing one in extra innings out in Anaheim. Cleveland is on a roll, going 8-2 over its last 10 and riding a six-game heater, while the South Siders have been stuck in neutral at 5-5. It’s time for the Good Guys
to string together a streak of their own, and after dropping 11 runs yesterday, there’s no better time to start.
The White Sox will send Sean Burke to the bump. After an outstanding July in which he went 2-1 with a 1.14 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in five appearances, Burke has come back to Earth a bit in August. The righthander is 0-1 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over four outings this month, and he has failed to make it through the fifth inning twice. With the Guardians refusing to cool off, the Sox could use both length and a return to July form from Burke tonight.
Burke’s Baseball Savant profile provides a fairly clear blueprint for how he can succeed. His four-seam fastball has been his greatest weapon, ranking in the 97th percentile in run value, while his cutter sits in the 87th percentile. Those two pitches have helped his overall fastball run value reach the 97th percentile. Burke also ranks well in chase rate, strikeout rate and walk rate, so his best path against Texas will be to establish the fastball, get ahead and use the cutter to keep hitters from sitting on the four-seamer. His breaking pitches have been much less effective — including a curveball in the 21st percentile in run value — and his low ground-ball rate makes mistakes particularly dangerous. Against a Rangers lineup with several potent bats, Burke cannot afford to fall behind and leave hittable pitches over the heart of the plate.
Texas will counter with lefthander MacKenzie Gore, who joined the Rangers in a January trade with the Washington Nationals and has settled into the No. 2 spot in the rotation behind Jacob deGrom. Unlike Burke, Gore has been at his best lately, compiling a 1.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across four August starts. His Savant numbers largely support that success: His four-seamer ranks in the 98th percentile in run value, while his changeup sits in the 83rd percentile and his slider in the 74th. Gore can miss bats and collect strikeouts, but the contact he allows gives the Sox a possible opening. He ranks in only the 23rd percentile in hard-hit rate and the 25th percentile in barrel rate, while his cutter and curveball sit in the 17th and 10th percentiles, respectively, in run value. The Sox will need to avoid chasing his best secondary pitches, force him into the zone and be ready to punish the cutter or curveball when either catches too much of the plate.
Miguel Vargas and Tristan Peters have led the regulars offensively over the last seven days, with Peters entering tonight after homering in four consecutive games. Meanwhile, Colson Montgomery and Munetaka Murakami continue to struggle, and with the southpaw on the mound, Colson will get the night off. Gore’s four-seamer and changeup can both produce excellent results, so Chicago’s hitters cannot simply hunt fastballs and expect another output like Tuesday. Patient at-bats and damage against his weaker offerings will be essential if they want to keep the offense rolling.
The Rangers present a much different challenge at the plate, with four players batting better than .300 over the last seven days. Ezequiel Duran leads the way, hitting the cover off the ball with a .476/.577/.810 slash line and 1.387 OPS over that span. Burke has the weapons to slow down this lineup, but his fastball command will need to be sharp from the opening pitch.
Another win would secure the series and, more importantly, allow the White Sox to begin building some momentum of their own while the Guardians remain directly on their heels.
First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. CDT. The game will be televised on CHSN and can be heard on ESPN 1000.
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