For this article, I decided to offer (yet another) take on the Minnesota Vikings quarterback issue – delayed so it wouldn’t get lost in the shuffle – and some quick takes on the team’s first preseason game of the season.
KYLER MURRAY IS OUR QB1
Kevin O’Connell made it official: Kyler Murray will be the starting quarterback. Oddsmakers and betting markets had the implied probability in the 85-90% range since Murray signed here, so it’s not surprising.
Let’s talk it over.
While no one was officially named
the starter earlier in the offseason, it was widely understood that it was Murray’s job to lose and J.J. McCarthy’s job to win. That’s an important distinction, and it put the lion’s share of the pressure on McCarthy’s shoulders. He not only had to outperform Murray, but also do so consistently, day in and day out, from the start of training camp.
That didn’t happen. While he had his good days, the benefits of spending two years in KOC’s system and the stated offseason goals of improving his mechanics and footwork did not translate into performances that approached that level.
Another layer to this discussion, which took a back seat to the day-to-day hot takes on the QB battle, is that KOC needs not only a double-digit win season to improve on 2025 but also that elusive playoff win. As ESPN’s Kevin Seifert noted, there are only three NFL head coaches since 2000 who have reached a sixth season without a playoff win: Washington’s Jay Gruden (2014-18), Houston’s Gary Kubiak (2006-10) and Cincinnati’s Marvin Lewis (2003-07). KOC doesn’t want to be the fourth. Would a 10-7 or 11-6 season and another one-and-done in the playoffs cost him his job? Possibly, but I’d say it’s unlikely. Would his seat become very warm in 2027? Definitely.
Kyler Murray is simply the safer bet, and, given the history, I’d say he’s a strong favorite to match or surpass Sam Darnold’s performance. The DN’s Warren Ludford broke it down earlier and noted that Murray was able to match, and in some cases exceed, what Darnold did with an inferior Arizona Cardinals team in 2024.
Now, as the known starter, Murray’s consensus fantasy numbers for 2026 are around 3,500–3,600 passing yards, 23.5–24.5 TDs, along with 480–500 rushing yards and 3.4–3.7 TDs. That would be nearly 1,000 passing yards and over 10 passing TDs less than Darnold had in 2024. And we’ve added Jauan Jennings. Yeah, if he stays healthy, which is not an unserious concern given the past five seasons, those projections will be the absolute floor.
J.J. MCCARTHY’S FUTURE
At this point, there’s nothing new to say about it that hasn’t already been said. I’m not going to rehash or revisit my views on J.J. McCarthy. If you care to, you can read them here, here, here, and elsewhere in my DN entries.
I’m a huge admirer of the guy, and I still think he can be an NFL starting quarterback. I believe he is more the player in the Cowboys/Lions away games last year than in the Packers road game. But the simple fact is that he no longer controls his own destiny with the Minnesota Vikings. For him to see the field in 2026, it will be because of an injury or poor performance by Murray, or even by Carson Wentz. Yes, we are at that point (more on that below). He’s under contract through next season, but again, either the Vikings or Murray would have to opt for a change for him to get back into the QBOTF discussion.
At this point, I know only two things:
First, I’m officially done drafting and developing the QBOTF thing for the foreseeable future. It’s been 21 years since Daunte Culpepper threw his last pass in a Vikings uniform. At this point, I’m all-in on the free-agent/veteran reclamation strategy. If the Super Bowl win ever comes, it’ll be that way. It is what it is. Do I like it? Nope. But there’s that well-cited definition of insanity.
Second, if McCarthy is traded or moves on after 2027 and becomes a successful NFL quarterback for the L.A. Chargers, Rams, or elsewhere, I’m going to lose it. Of all the awful things that have happened to Vikings fans over the decades, watching McCarthy lead another team to a Super Bowl would be near the top. And if he actually won one? Don’t even go there. It would be an extinction-level event for the collective psyche of Vikings fans.
PRESEASON GAME #1 IN THE BOOKS
The Vikings defeated the New York Giants 13-10 to win the season’s first preseason game.
The major story of the day was that newly signed safety/linebacker Jamal Adams was carted off the field with an apparent non-contact leg injury. The worst-case scenario is expected. Adams made an excellent play for a TFL early in the game, exploding through the line to make a play. The potential of what could’ve been was an early bright spot. But, alas, like Chad Greenway in 2006 and Phil Loadholt in 2015, the Vikings will likely lose a valuable contributor for the season before the games count for real. Wishing Jamal Adams all the best and a quick recovery.
I’ll leave this here:
Some other quick thoughts:
- Kyler Murray was fine. In his one series, Murray hit a difficult out route to Jordan Addison on 3rd and 8 for a key first down during a 10-play, 54-yard opening drive that ended in a field goal.
- QB2 competition discussion has arrived. J.J. McCarthy never found a groove in his limited snaps. He did hit Myles Price on a nice gain under duress, but overall it was largely uneventful. Carson Wentz got more action than intended due to an injury to Max Brosmer and finished with a 103.6 QB rating and a nice TD pass to Myles Price (more on that in a moment). Wentz looked more comfortable in the offense, and it’s worth watching to see whether it was an anomaly or the new reality.
- The run game was excellent. The first few series showed what this run game can be this year. Aaron Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason rushed six times for 44 yards (7.3 yards per attempt). Demond Claiborne played well, carrying momentum from a strong training camp to date.
- Myles Price gets the game ball. Price was excellent, catching four passes for 51 yards (12.8 yards per catch), including a gorgeous one-handed touchdown grab from Wentz. Price was a lock for the team due to his special teams prowess, but he may be working his way into seeing some not inconsequential reps as a WR this season.
- Dallas Turner: So far, so good. Turner’s ongoing development – especially in the context of the Jonathan Greenard trade – was high on this Vikings fan’s radar during training camp and preseason. If today was any indication, things are going splendidly. Not only did he record a sack in limited snaps, but he was also all over the place and seemed near the ball on every play he was in.
- Jacob Thomas’ strong training camp continues. The undrafted free agent from James Madison built on the momentum of an impressive training camp with a nice interception. Given the unfortunate Adams injury, Thomas could find himself in the mix more than anticipated from this point forward.
We’ve made it, folks. Competitive football is finally back for the Minnesota Vikings!
