Even after Wednesday night’s 5-0 loss to the Dodgers, the Phillies left Los Angeles with yet another series win under their belt, their 33rd of the season, the most in baseball. As noted by our in-house stats guru, the Phils’ ability to lock down series victories is almost unprecedented.
It’s hard to believe that this Phillies team would match or even surpass the 2011, 102-win squad in series wins, but that scenario is very much on the table. In fact, one could argue it’s likely.
By winning two of three, the 91-62 Phils clinched the season series over the Dodgers, increased their lead over them for the No. 2 seed in the National League to 5 1/2 games, and all but assured themselves of a bye past the wild card round. The Phillies’ loss, coupled with a Milwaukee victory over the hapless Angels Wednesday, pushed them 2 1/2 games back of the Brewers for the best record in the NL and Major League Baseball.
Having home field advantage over the Dodgers could be key in a potential NLDS match-up. L.A.’s record at Dodger Stadium is 49-28 and are under .500 on the road, 36-39. The Brewers are nine games over .500 away from Milwaukee, 43-32, and sport a 50-27 record at home. Like the Phillies, they play decently away from the friendly confines of their crowd, but getting more home games is obviously a huge benefit. It’s an open question just how aggressively the Phillies should pursue that No. 1 seed, but it appears they’re going to try.
As these three teams jockey for position at the top of the National League picture, the schedule the rest of the way could go a long way in determining who finishes where.
The Phillies have nine games left, while the Brewers and Dodgers each have 10. Here is what remains for each:
- Phillies: 3 @ Diamondbacks (77-76, 1.5 GB 3rd wild card spot), 3 home vs. Marlins (72-80), 3 home vs. Twins (66-86)
- Brewers: 1 @ Angels (69-83), 3 @ Cardinals (74-79), 3 @ Padres (83-69, 2 GB in NL West, holding 2nd wild card), 3 home vs. Reds (76-76, 2 GB 3rd wild card)
- Dodgers: 4 home vs. Giants (76-76, 2 GB 3rd wild card), 3 @ Diamondbacks (77-76, 1.5 GB 3rd wild card), 3 @ Mariners (83-69, holding 3rd wild card, 0.5 GB in AL West)
Of the three teams left on the Phillies schedule, only this weekend’s match-up in Arizona features a team involved in the playoff picture. Not only that, the Phillies play their final two series of the season at Citizens Bank Park against two teams who are a combined 28 games under .500.
The Brewers have a relatively easy time of things through the weekend, although it’s possible the Cardinals could toss them a loss in much the same way the Marlins could throw a monkey wrench at the Phillies. But Milwaukee finishes with three in San Diego against a Padres team fighting for the NL West crown, and three against a Reds team that may or may not still be in the wild card picture by the time the final weekend of the season rolls around.
The Dodgers have a rough draw. Their final four homes games of the season are against their top rival, the Giants, who are also fighting for a wild card spot. Then they go on the road for six games, both against teams also fighting for the postseason, the Diamondbacks and the Mariners.
Fangraphs estimates the Phillies have a 99.1% chance of earning a first-round bye, which is more important than the No. 1 seed, although manager Rob Thomson has openly admitted he wants homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Not only that, it gives the Phils a reason to continue playing hard over their final nine games, hopefully hitting the ground running once the postseason begins.
Thomson is already lining things up for the NLDS that begins on October 4. Cristopher Sanchez is on schedule to start Game 1 on five days’ rest, and while no plan has been made public over who would pitch Games 2 and 3, the smart money is on Ranger Suarez to start Game 2 and Jesus Luzardo to handle Game 3.
The Phillies are also going to get a closer look at Walker Buehler on Friday against the Diamondbacks. Taijuan Walker will get the start but will only go 4-5 innings, with Buehler piggy-backing behind him. It’s an audition for a potential bullpen role this October. The Phils would only need a fourth starter if they reach the NLCS or World Series, with Aaron Nola the likeliest to make that start. It’s unlikely Nola would pitch out of the bullpen in the NLDS unless there is a longer extra inning game at some point.
It’s nice to spend these last 10 days with a little something to play for while also getting ready for October.
