Back on October 9th of last year, an announcement came from the Atlanta Braves that may not have raised a ton of eyebrows at the time. However the effects of that move are being felt right now in a very noticeable way in the team’s farm system.
That move in question is the Braves parting ways with Paul Davis, who had been the team’s director of pitching development since 2020. Davis was there for the rise of pitchers like Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Hurston Waldrep
among others who have already established themselves in the big leagues, and the likes of JR Ritchie, Didier Fuentes, Jhancarlos Lara, and Owen Murphy who are now right there or just on the doorstep.
How big of an impact is this move having? Well let’s take a look at the ERA’s of the Braves full season affiliates for this year against the last few years to give you a better idea. Note that the FCL isn’t being mentioned due to the small sample size, and the DSL is yet to begin their season.
Gwinnett Stripers (Triple-A)
2021 was a team 3.72 ERA, 2022 was a 4.37 ERA, 2023 was 4.95, 2024 was 4.33, and 2025 was 4.07. Through 45 games the ERA is 4.33 this year. Note this is probably the level least effected, as a lot of these guys are more veterans than true prospects.
Columbus Clingstones (Double-A)
2025 had a 3.92 ERA, and is as far as we will go back here as the team was in Mississippi before 2025, and different park factors are at play. This year the ERA is 5.60 through 38 games, or almost 2 full runs higher than last year.
Rome Emperors (High-A)
2021 was a 3.97 ERA, as was 2022. In 2023 it was 4.09, followed by 3.47 in 2024. Last year it was 3.72. Through 39 games it is 4.82 this year, more than a full run higher than two of the five previous years and almost a full run higher than two more.
Augusta GreenJackets (Low-A)
2021 had a 5.11 ERA, which went down to 4.52 in 2022. In 2023 it was 4.41, then 4.04 in 2024. Last year it was at 3.70. Through 39 games it is 4.65 this year, which is quite a bit higher than four of the five years we have looked at.
It’s not just the affiliates that have struggled this year. In fact multiple Braves pitching prospects have seen their results go backwards as well, without many making the big leap in their development.
Jhancarlos Lara is pitching to a 9.28 ERA in Double-A and walking nearly two guys per inning through 10.2 innings. Fellow Columbus reliever Elison Joseph has also seen the walks skyrocket, while dropping nearly four off his K/9 total from the same level last year, and hasn’t looked to have the same stuff.
While it’s not an apples to apples comparison since he spent last year in Low-A and is in High-A this year, Cam Caminiti has also seemed to regress a bit. Cam is missing less bats, while giving up nearly 10 hits per nine innings pitched. Fellow top prospect Owen Murphy is in a similar boat, facing better competition this year and struggling more with his command than we had ever seen from him.
The examples there could go on and on, like Lucas Braun missing less bats. After making his big league debut last year following complete domination across the minors, Hayden Harris is walking guys at a career high rate and has 1.64 WHIP in 17.2 innings. Sixth round pick Landon Beidelschies is giving up almost two hits per inning in Low-A. Even Garrett Baumann is having more issues with his command than we’ve previously ever seen from him, leading to more hits and walks allowed than we’ve ever seen from him.
Conclusion
It may or may not have been the right call to move on from Davis after last season ended, as the pitching injuries had been an issue for the past couple of seasons for young Braves pitchers. However the changes they have made have had the opposite effect to date, and the Braves are going to need to take a really close look at this as soon as possible, in order to do something to right the ship and not cost all of these pitching prospects a year of lost development.
Note that I initially wrote this article last week, and over the last four to five games, things have gone slightly better overall. Team ERA’s have actually dropped by a little, while some of the individual pitchers have actually improved their numbers a bit – Lara, Baumann, and Cade Kuehler in particular. Still to this point, we have seen far more pitchers take a step backwards this year than forwards – really only Ethan Bagwell seems to have taken a step forward, and some of that is simply on the fact he is now healthy again after dealing with injury last season.
