Last year’s NCAA Tournament saw just four lower-seeded teams victorious in the round of 64: two No. 9-seeds, and two No. 10-seeds.
While it’s safe to say that looking for upsets is often more of a Moby Dick situation than a trip to Sea World, we would be lying if we claimed to not be whale watching nonetheless.
So, excluding the coin flip No. 8-vs-No. 9 games, who might really have a chance to pull off an upset?
No. 11-seed Fairfield over No. 6-seed Notre Dame (Mar. 21 at 2 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Fairfield’s claim to an upset is twofold.
First, the Stags have thoroughly cemented themselves
as one of the best mid-major programs in the country. This will be the fourth time in the past five seasons that Fairfield is going dancing, and this is the second year in that span that they’ve scraped the AP Top 25 at some point in the regular season. For a MAAC team, that’s unheard of.
Apart from Fairfield’s own resume, Notre Dame is an openly-flawed team. The Fighting Irish have struggled through slow-paced stretches this year, and it’s no secret that their reputation is intrinsically tied to ACC Player of the Year Hannah Hidalgo. Hidalgo averages nearly twice as many points as anyone else on the roster, and has been asked to play close to 40 minutes in the Irish’s more competitive games. Notre Dame is just not deep enough to escape the reality of their heliocentric nature. If Hidalgo struggles, they struggle.
Fairfield’s 28-4 record dwarfs Notre Dame and their 10 losses, but obviously the strength of schedule is a much different story. Fairfield only played two AP-ranked opponents in their regular season, losing to both North Carolina and Iowa. However, they have three wins over other squads who made the NCAA Tournament: Villanova, Lehigh, and Richmond. The Stags strength of schedule suffers from their success—try saying that five times fast! High-major teams don’t want to see them in non-conference play because of their reputation as a powerhouse mid-major, making it harder for them to compile a resume of tough wins.
Don’t get it twisted, Notre Dame will still very likely win this game. However, it’s possible that they were hoping to avoid drawing Fairfield in the Round of 64. After back-to-back 28-win seasons, the Stags aren’t happy resting on another MAAC Championship banner. They’re looking to win on the national stage.
No. 11-seed Rhode Island over No. 6-seed Alabama (Mar. 21 at 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPNEWS)
For the second straight year, the Atlantic-10 is a multi-bid league in the NCAA Tournament. Entering March Madness with a 28-4 record, regular-season championship and a conference championship to boot, Rhode Island hit for the cycle in one of the East Coast’s premier mid-major conferences. They’ll be representing the A10 alongside Richmond, who play in the First Four against Nebraska.
Rhode Island drew the 23-10 Crimson Tide, and will travel to Louisville to play them on Saturday. Alabama only finished 10th in the 16-team SEC, with nine of their 10 total losses coming in-conference.
The Tide fail to impress on many fronts: they aren’t a particularly high-powered offense, they don’t get to the free throw line, and they don’t force many turnovers. Jessica Timmons carries the load for Alabama on offense, and has had an impressive comeback story after missing the entire 2024-25 season due to an injury suffered in the 2024 SEC Tournament. Timmons is head and shoulders above any scorer for Rhode Island, but the Crimson Tide don’t get remarkable contribution from anyone further down their depth chart.
For Rhode Island, Finnish center Albina Syla has been a huge contributor in some games and could be a player to watch in terms of pure physical impact on the game. She’s had seven double-doubles on the year, and put up a monster 22 and 14 in the A10 semifinal win over Dayton.
Rhode Island has had some dismal offensive outings, but they’re a top-25 defense in the country, regardless of conference. They only allow 53 points per game, which is sixth best in the nation. They say defense travels, which could help give the Rams an edge in a neutral site matchup. If Rhode Island’s defense files in as expected, they could be one good shooting night away from the round of 32.
No. 10-seed Villanova over No. 7-seed Texas Tech (Mar. 20 at 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
In a round of lopsided matchups, it’s likely that 25-7 Villanova against 25-7 Texas Tech could be one of the most entertaining games in the early days of the tournament.
Both teams have the same record, the same points per game, the same field goal percentage and the same rebounds and steals average.
Villanova’s Jasmine Bascoe is a dynamite scoring guard who’s scored 25+ points on seven occasions this season. She led the Big East in points per game and assists per game—essentially the only two stats that UConn’s Sarah Strong didn’t lead—despite only being a sophomore. The Wildcats have a strong resume of wins, none more impressive than a 22-point wiping of No. 12 West Virginia, who just won the Big 12 Tournament. Villanova also finished within 14 points of UConn in their final regular season matchup, proving that they can be competitive with the country’s best on good days. They move the ball well, prevent turnovers, and make free throws.
On the other hand, Texas Tech finished fourth in the Big 12 before getting upset by K-State in their first postseason outing. They blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter, giving up an unbelievable 21-0 run and ultimately losing by seven points. The Red Raiders had 16 turnovers to only nine assists in that game, and shot just 29 percent from the field.
Texas Tech will be doing everything they can to prevent this game from coming down to shotmaking. If they can force Villanova turnovers and get active on the offensive glass, it will be difficult for them to lose. However, if Villanova stays as disciplined as they have throughout much of their regular season, this game will look more even than the seeds suggest.
