The newest College Football Playoff rankings arrived Tuesday night, and while the top of the board held firm, the battles through the middle and back end of the 12-team bracket tightened heading into Rivalry
Week. The picture is becoming clearer, with the seeds starting to stablize and teams getting a better idea of where they fall. In this edition, instead of looking at all 25 ranked teams, I am looking at the teams in the projected bracket as well as analyzing the chaos in the ACC and G5, with multiple candidates still alive in each race.
Top Four Seeds Remain Unchanged
- Ohio State (11-0) stays No. 1 with the nation’s most complete profile after taking down Rutgers 42-9 and now heads into its biggest test against Michigan. The Buckeyes should be able to receive a first-round bye so long as they can defeat either Michigan or Indiana, if not both.
- Indiana (11-0) remains unbeaten as well, sitting idle following win number eleven over Wisconsin, and has a straightforward path: beat Purdue and win the Big Ten; even if they lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, they should still be well-positioned for a first-round bye.
- Texas A&M (11-0) recovered from a miraculous comeback against South Carolina with a much easier romp over Samford. The Aggies are gearing up for a rivalry week showdown against #16 Texas, with an undefeated regular season on the line.
- Georgia (10-1) holds the final spot that would receive a first-round bye, with the Bulldogs’ lone blemish coming to Alabama. UGA has a more manageable rivalry week contest against Georgia Tech, with the Yellow Jackets having lost two of three games, but appear headed for an SEC Championship clash against A&M that could shuffle the top of the rankings.
Dark-Horse Contenders Highlight Spots 5-8
5. Texas Tech (10-1) remains the top team who would not receive a bye, with a Big 12 title giving them an outside chance at moving up depending on what happens elsewhere. The Red Raiders face West Virginia on the road this week and have a good chance of a rematch with BYU in the conference championship game. Texas Tech defeated the Cougars 29-7 in a highly-anticpated matchup in Lubbock.
6. Oregon (10-1) overtook Ole Miss and moved into the sixth spot after a 42-27 victory over playoff hopefuls USC, who eliminated themselves with their third loss of the season. It was a statement victory for the Ducks, which the committee cited in moving them ahead of Ole Miss. Oregon visits an 8-3 Washington team in Seattle to end their regular season, as they look to stamp their playoff ticket with a rivalry weekend victory.
7. Ole Miss (10-1) slipped to seventh, but it did not have to do with rumors of Lane Kiffin leaving the ‘Sip at this time. If he is unavailable to coach the playoff, then seeding could be affected. The Rebels will be among the first to take the field this week as they visit the 5-6 Mississippi State Bulldogs, who are much improved from last year, but are still a sizeable underdog in the Egg Bowl.
8. Oklahoma (9-2) remains in eighth, with the Sooners following statement road wins against Tennessee and Alabama with a 17-6 home victory over Missouri, which got Beau Pribula back this week. John Mateer continues to be a fearless dual-threat quarterback, and OU hosts an LSU team that barely eked out wins over lowly Arkansas and Western Kentucky, who is a good Conference USA team, but is still a Conference USA team.
Dangerous Teams Lurking From 9-12
9. Notre Dame (9-2) is in ninth once again, and this distinction is important, because seeds 9 through 12 have to go on the road to visit the fifth through eighth seeds. The Fighting Irish could be a team that nobody wants to see in the playoffs, as they blew out Syracuse 70-7 in a game where ND took a 21-0 lead before the offense took the field. The two opening losses look longer and longer ago by the week, and the Irish visit a struggling Stanford team as they look to clinch a double-digit win season once again.
10. Alabama (9-2) grabs the final at-large spot, and if this bracket holds, would play an all-SEC game at Ole Miss to open the postseason. Before that, the Crimson Tide must survive what could be a landmine against the Auburn Tigers with the Iron Bowl at night at Jordan-Hare Stadium this year to clinch their ticket to the CFP.
11-seed: Miami (9-2) is the highest ranked ACC team (#12), but that will not matter unless they win their conference. The Hurricanes have an opportunity to stake their claim, but would need to receive a lot of help just to get to the title game, with the clearest path requiring them to beat Pittsburgh and have Virginia, SMU, and Duke all lose this weekend.
12-seed Tulane (9-2) has the Group of Five bid for the second week straight, with the Green Wave looking to punctuate their season with a win over 1-10 Charlotte. The Green Wave are second in the American Conference, but trail North Texas, who has a better overall record at 10-1. In either case, the teams are likely to meet in the conference championship game, which could decide who gets the CFP spot.
Making Sense of the Chaos in the ACC
Even with Georgia Tech and Louisville all but bowing out of the race, the ACC is still as crowded as ever, although a bit more clear. The most likely outcome is that Virginia (9-2, 6-1 ACC) and SMU (8-3, 6-1 ACC) will defeat Virginia Tech and Cal to clinch spots in the title game, but Pittsburgh would make it if they can beat the Hurricanes and either the Cavaliers or Mustangs fall this Saturday.
Miami, Georgia Tech, and Duke are all still mathematically alive, but would need wins and a lot of help. Surprisingly, the Canes have the hardest path, with the Blue Devils needing a win and both Pitt and SMU to lose, while Georgia Tech needs Pitt to win while both UVA and SMU to lose to get in. Endless possibilities remain, but SMU has a chance to get back to the title game while Virginia may do the unthinkable and earn the CFP bid.
Which Team Will Get The Group of Five Bid?
The AAC race will likely determine the Group of Five auto-bid, and that carries major implications for the 12-seed line. Tulane and North Texas remain the strongest contenders, with the Mean Green having a better record, but the Green Wave having two Power Four wins over Northwestern and Duke (and a “quality” 45-10 loss to #7 Ole Miss that boosts its strength of schedule).
Hopefuls like Navy, South Florida, and Memphis have played themselves out of the race with too many losses, while James Madison of the Sun Belt Conference has a 10-1 record, with the lone loss coming to Louisville. The Cardinals loss looks less impressive given UoL’s shocking three-game losing streak, but Tulane has two losses to JMU and UNT’s one loss.
In addition, Tulane’s second loss came to 6-5 UTSA by 22 points, but the committee seems to have given the Green Wave a mulligan. UNT fell to South Florida 63-36, but the Bulls have been more competitive than UTSA and handed Florida a loss in Gainesville earlier this season.
If Tulane defeats North Texas to win the American, they would all but lock up a playoff bid, especially given that they are the lone Group of Five team to have a ranking already. James Madison would need some help, but the Mean Green can claim what should be rightfully theirs with their record if they can defeat Tulane next Saturday.
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