MLB Rumors: Dylan Cease and the Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to terms on a 7 year, $210 million deal, per reports. Some of that money is deferred, reportedly, though how much and on what terms are yet to be disclosed, so we will have to wait a bit to figure out what this deal is really worth.
Over at Fangraphs, Ben Clemens had Cease as the #3 free agent on the market, projecting him at 5 years, $155 million. At ESPN, Kiley McDaniel had Cease at #6 on his list, projecting him at 5 years, $145 million. Keith
Law has Cease as the 9th ranked free agent on his list.
Cease turns 30 in December, and the righthander is a curious case. He finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting in 2022, with the Chicago White Sox, and 4th in 2024 while pitching for the San Diego Padres. In 2023 and 2025, however, his ERA+ was below 100. Cease’s FIP has been fairly consistent from 2021-25, however, with his fWAR ranging from 3.4 (in 2025) to 4.7 (in 2024), and he misses bats at an elite rate. His strand rate has been below 70% each of the last three years, however, and has been much worse with runners on base the last two years than with no one on, resulting in his allowing more runs than would be expected.
Cease has made at least 32 starts each of the last five years, and that durability has value. The question is whether the inconsistent results will even out for Cease going forward — and if they don’t, will the highs outweigh the lows.
