The Royals are floundering as the season winds down, and the schedule gets no easier this weekend as they head into the City of Brotherly Love, Philadelphia. The Phillies are 26-13 since the start of August, and have opened up a massive 11-game lead in the NL East, with the second-best record in baseball.
Kansas City Royals (74-73) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (87-60) at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Royals: 3.80 runs scored/game (28th in MLB), 3.88 runs allowed/game (3rd)
Phillies: 4.82 runs scored/game
(9th), 3.98 runs allowed/game (5th)
The Phillies haven’t hit as many home runs as you might think – they are tenth in baseball in dingers – but Kyle Schwarber is having a career year with 50 home runs, second-most in baseball. Schwarber has 20 of those home runs since the All-Star break, most in baseball. He has hit 28 of the 50 home runs in Citizens Bank Park. He is also a career .364/.417/.727 against Michael Lorenzen with two home runs in 22 at-bats.
Bryce Harper is batting .303/.397/.572 at home this year. Edmundo Sosa is hitting .317/.363/.510 against lefties. Harrison Bader has been rejuvenated since the Phillies acquired him from the Twins at the trade deadline, hitting .339/.403/.539 with four home runs in 35 games since coming to Philadelphia. Brandon Marsh is hitting .463 (19-for-41) with two home runs over his last 11 games. But he’s just a .200/.293/.262 hitter against lefties.
J.T. Realmuto is hitting just .145 (8-for-55) in his last 16 games. Nick Castellanos is hitting .213/.267/.340 since the All-Star break. The Phillies are without Trea Turner and Alec Bohm, who were both placed on the Injured List earlier this week.
Philadelphia has a success rate of 82 percent on steals, third-highest in baseball. They have made the second-most outs on the bases however. The Phillies are an above-average defensive team with strong play up the middle from Bryson Stott and Edmundo Sosa, while Castellanos is one of the worst defenders in baseball. J.T. Realmuto has caught 27 base-stealing attempts, second-most in baseball with 29 percent caught stealing rate.
Walker Buehler makes his first appearance in a Phillies uniform after being placed on waivers by Boston. He had actually pitched better since the All-Star break, with a 3.93 ERA in seven outings before the Red Sox let him go, but with 20 walks and 21 strikeouts in 34.1 innings. Lefties are hitting .317/.406/.471 against him this year. Opponents are hitting .363 against his cutter. He has the second-highest FIP among any pitcher with 100 innings.
Taijuan Walker has bounced back from a rough 2024 season with a 7.10 ERA to post an ERA around four, although his underlying metrics have not been as good and he was demoted to the pen earlier in the year. He has the 11th-lowest strikeout rate for a pitcher with at least 100 innings. Walker has given up 13 runs in 15 innings over his last three starts. In five career starts against the Royals, he has a 6.12 ERA.
Aaron Nola missed three months with ankle and rib issues earlier this year and will fail to make 30 starts in a full season for the first time since 2017. He has a 6.39 ERA in five starts since returning, although he tossed six shutout innings in win over the Mets in his last start. Nola has a knuckle-curve that has a 36 percent whiff rate, but that opponents are hitting .306 against. Mike Yastrzemski is 4-for-12 (.333) against him in his career with a home run.
The Phillies’ bullpen has a 4.31 ERA, tenth-highest in baseball. They were helped by the mid-season acquisition of Jhoan Duran, who has a 1.23 ERA since joining Philadelphia, converting 13 of 14 save opportunities. He averages 100.5 mph on his fastball, second-highest in baseball behind only Mason Miller. Matt Strahm has given up just four runs in 25 innings since the start of July for a 1.44 ERA. José Alvardo has allowed five runs in six innings, with a home run in three of his last four games since returning from an 80-game suspension for PEDs.
The Phillies are 49-23 at home this year, the best record in baseball. They’re 27-15 in interleague play, second behind only the Astros. This weekend may be the final nail in the coffin on the Royals’ razor-thin playoff chances.
